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Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc(MDGL)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for MDGL
10/09/2026: MDGL (1-star) is a SELL. SELL for 3 days. Simulated Profits (-10.78%). Updated daily EoD!
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals is a commercial-stage biotechnology company that has achieved the first FDA approval for a drug treating MASH, a progressive liver disease. The company's core strength is its first-mover advantage with Rezdiffra, which currently offers a unique, targeted treatment option in a significant market. The primary investment story centers on the company’s ability to drive widespread adoption and market penetration. Key risks include intense competition from larger pharmaceutical firms with GLP-1 platforms and the execution challenges inherent in a first-product launch. The stock is best suited for growth-oriented investors willing to accept volatility, and stakeholders should closely monitor quarterly commercial revenue and competitive clinical developments.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Strong fit | The company offers growth potential driven by the commercial launch of its first-to-market MASH therapy. |
| Momentum investor | Mixed fit | Fit is conditional on continued positive sales growth and favorable market reception following the initial launch phase. |
| Value investor | Weak fit | The stock typically trades on future growth prospects and regulatory success rather than current earnings or value metrics. |
| Dividend investor | Weak fit | The company does not pay a dividend and focuses entirely on reinvestment. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | The company operates in the high-risk, high-volatility biotechnology sector, which is unsuitable for low-risk mandates. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | High | Biotech stocks are highly sensitive to clinical data and regulatory news flow. |
| Valuation risk | Medium / high | Future growth expectations are baked into the current valuation, leaving little margin for error. |
| Competition risk (GLP-1 and MASH pipelines) | High | Competitors with vast resources may capture significant portions of the MASH treatment market. |
| Business quality | Medium | The company has a single-product portfolio, which creates concentration risk. |
| Dividend income | Low / none | No income is returned to shareholders. |
| Execution risk | High | Successful commercialization of a first-in-class product is complex and resource-intensive. |
Price Behavior
Rolling Over
The price momentum is slowing down and beginning to turn downward.
Moderately Choppy
The stock has experienced noticeable price swings while retaining some directional structure.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -45.32% | Avg. Invested days 32 | Today’s Advisory SELL |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  2.0 | Stock Returns Performance  1.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/09/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Large-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 10.90B USD | Price to earnings Ratio - | 1Y Target Price 682.11 |
Price to earnings Ratio - | 1Y Target Price 682.11 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 238.3K shares | Beta -1.05 | 52 Weeks Range 393.61 - 615.00 | Updated Date 10/11/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 393.61 - 615.00 | Updated Date 10/11/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) - | Basic EPS (TTM) -12.85 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Pharmaceutical Sales | Revenue primarily derived from the sale of Rezdiffra in the United States. | The company makes money by selling its only approved drug, Rezdiffra, to treat liver disease. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Valuation
Trailing PE - | Forward PE 78.12 | Enterprise Value 11.36B | Price to Sales(TTM) 8.49 |
Enterprise Value 11.36B | Price to Sales(TTM) 8.49 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 8.85 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA -8.32 | Shares Outstanding 23.10M | Shares Floating 13.72M |
Shares Outstanding 23.10M | Shares Floating 13.72M | ||
Percent Insiders 5.83 | Percent Institutions 104.66 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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