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Upturn AI Summary - About
MGP Ingredients Inc(MGPI)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for MGPI
10/23/2026: MGPI (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
MGP Ingredients, Inc. is a diversified producer of premium distilled spirits and specialty food ingredients. The company has a leading position in supplying aged whiskey to third-party brands while simultaneously growing its own high-margin portfolio, such as the Penelope and Remus labels. Its core strengths include a unique business model that bridges industrial ingredient manufacturing and high-end consumer brands, offering both cash flow stability and long-term growth potential. Primary risks include sensitivity to commodity price fluctuations and the execution requirements of managing a growing portfolio of spirits brands. The stock may best suit growth-oriented investors who are comfortable with the inherent volatility of the beverage and agricultural cycles.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Strong fit | The focus on premium brand expansion offers significant top-line growth potential. |
| Momentum investor | Mixed fit | Strong fit requires a positive upturn signal in spirits consumption trends. |
| Value investor | Mixed fit | Valuation fluctuates based on the cyclical nature of grain costs and brand integration success. |
| Dividend investor | Weak fit | The company prioritizes capital reinvestment over high dividend yields. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | Exposure to commodity markets and inventory-intensive operations introduces volatility. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | Medium / high | Raw material costs for grains can fluctuate significantly. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | Brand acquisition multiples can be high and require long-term growth to justify. |
| Competition risk (spirits and ingredients) | High | Intense competition from global spirit brands and major ingredient players. |
| Business quality | Medium | The transition from commodity supplier to brand owner is complex and capital-intensive. |
| Dividend income | Low | Dividends are not the primary driver of shareholder value here. |
| Execution risk | Medium / high | Successfully scaling acquired brands is critical to long-term success. |
Price Behavior
Steep Decline
The stock price has dropped sharply with strong downward pressure.
Choppy
The stock has experienced frequent reversals and pronounced short-term price swings.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -34.74% | Avg. Invested days 24 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  2.0 | Stock Returns Performance  1.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/23/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Small-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 336.84M USD | Price to earnings Ratio - | 1Y Target Price 26.4 |
Price to earnings Ratio - | 1Y Target Price 26.4 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 294.2K shares | Beta 0.48 | 52 Weeks Range 12.42 - 26.12 | Updated Date 10/24/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 12.42 - 26.12 | Updated Date 10/24/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 2.95% | Basic EPS (TTM) -11.26 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Branded Spirits | Premium whiskey and spirit labels marketed to consumers. | This is the growth engine focusing on higher profit margins. |
| Distilling Solutions | Bulk supply of aged and unaged spirits to other brands. | Provides steady, reliable cash flow from established relationships. |
| Ingredient Solutions | Wheat-based proteins and starches for food industry. | Offers diversified exposure to the food manufacturing sector. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Earnings Date
Report Date 2026-10-28 | When Before Market | Estimate 0.34 | Actual - |
Profitability
Profit Margin -48.4% | Operating Margin (TTM) 14.8% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 3.37% | Return on Equity (TTM) -33.82% |
Valuation
Trailing PE - | Forward PE 6.85 | Enterprise Value 648.85M | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.67 |
Enterprise Value 648.85M | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.67 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 1.3 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 17.47 | Shares Outstanding 21.41M | Shares Floating 14.61M |
Shares Outstanding 21.41M | Shares Floating 14.61M | ||
Percent Insiders 32.54 | Percent Institutions 74.78 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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