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Moderna Inc(MRNA)
Top performer 
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for MRNA
10/09/2026: MRNA (4-star) is a STRONG-BUY. BUY for 35 days. Simulated Profits (55.03%). Updated daily EoD!
Moderna is a leading biotechnology firm recognized for its innovative mRNA platform, which gained global significance during the COVID-19 pandemic. The company's primary strength lies in its ability to rapidly develop vaccines, a capability it is now leveraging to target respiratory illnesses and cancer immunotherapy. While Moderna holds a leading position in mRNA technology, its financial health remains volatile due to declining COVID-19 vaccine sales and high R&D spending on a diverse but unproven pipeline. The company is best suited for growth investors comfortable with significant clinical and regulatory risk. Key developments to monitor include the commercial success of non-COVID vaccines and long-term results from oncology trials.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Strong fit | The company offers exposure to a transformative mRNA platform with a high-growth pipeline in oncology and rare diseases. |
| Momentum investor | Mixed fit | Momentum is conditional on positive clinical data or regulatory approvals for new products, making it a volatile tactical play. |
| Value investor | Weak fit | The stock is difficult to value using traditional metrics due to its reliance on future pipeline success and high R&D expenditures. |
| Dividend investor | Weak fit | Moderna does not pay a dividend, making it unsuitable for income-focused portfolios. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | High clinical trial risks and volatile revenue make this unsuitable for conservative investors seeking stability. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | High | The stock price is highly sensitive to news regarding clinical trial outcomes and vaccine demand. |
| Valuation risk | Medium / high | Current valuations are heavily dependent on long-term expectations for unproven pipeline assets. |
| Competition risk (mRNA platform competition) | High | Well-capitalized pharmaceutical companies are actively developing competing mRNA and non-mRNA technologies. |
| Business quality | Medium | While the platform is innovative, the company is still building a diversified commercial product portfolio. |
| Dividend income | Low / none | There is no dividend payout, which excludes income-seeking shareholders. |
| Execution risk | High | The company must successfully transition from a single-product company to a multi-product commercial entity. |
Price Behavior
Strong Uptrend
The stock has maintained a strong upward price trend across the last three quarters.
Extreme Price Shocks
The stock has experienced exceptionally large and disruptive price movements during the period.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 155.35% | Avg. Invested days 31 | Today’s Advisory Strong Buy |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  4.0 | Stock Returns Performance  5.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/09/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Large-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 89.83B USD | Price to earnings Ratio - | 1Y Target Price 122.67 |
Price to earnings Ratio - | 1Y Target Price 122.67 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 17.0M shares | Beta 1.09 | 52 Weeks Range 22.28 - 225.00 | Updated Date 10/09/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 22.28 - 225.00 | Updated Date 10/09/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) - | Basic EPS (TTM) -9.11 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Product Sales | Global sales of Spikevax (COVID-19 vaccine) and mRESVIA (RSV vaccine). | Most revenue currently comes from respiratory vaccine sales, which are seasonal and subject to market demand. |
| Grants and Collaborations | Funding from government contracts and research partnerships with companies like Merck. | These revenues support R&D efforts and provide non-dilutive capital to de-risk clinical pipeline development. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Valuation
Trailing PE - | Forward PE 23.04 | Enterprise Value 68.85B | Price to Sales(TTM) 40.32 |
Enterprise Value 68.85B | Price to Sales(TTM) 40.32 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 31.16 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 4.64 | Shares Outstanding 399.24M | Shares Floating 372.06M |
Shares Outstanding 399.24M | Shares Floating 372.06M | ||
Percent Insiders 7.34 | Percent Institutions 80.46 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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