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Moderna Inc(MRNA)
Top performer 
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for MRNA
11/09/2026: MRNA (4-star) is a STRONG-BUY. BUY for 56 days. Simulated Profits (85.35%). Updated daily EoD!
Moderna Inc is a biotechnology company primarily known for its mRNA-based platform used to develop vaccines and therapies. Following its rapid emergence during the pandemic, the company currently maintains a leading position in mRNA technology while working to diversify its commercial portfolio into oncology and other respiratory viruses. Its primary growth opportunity lies in the successful commercialization of these pipeline candidates, though it faces execution, valuation, and competitive risks as it seeks to normalize revenue post-pandemic. The stock may best suit growth-oriented investors with a high tolerance for volatility, as success remains tied to clinical trial outcomes and the ability to sustain a long-term R&D edge.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Strong fit | The company offers exposure to high-growth potential in mRNA-based therapies and platforms. |
| Momentum investor | Mixed fit | Momentum is highly dependent on clinical trial results and regulatory updates. |
| Value investor | Weak fit | The company's valuation is driven by speculative future pipeline success rather than current earnings multiples. |
| Dividend investor | Weak fit | Moderna does not pay a dividend, focusing entirely on R&D growth. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | The stock exhibits high volatility typical of clinical-stage biotech companies. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | High | The stock price is highly sensitive to news about clinical trial results and government contracts. |
| Valuation risk | Medium / high | Future growth expectations are deeply embedded in the stock price, leaving little room for error. |
| Competition risk (mRNA and vaccine platforms) | High | Aggressive competition from established pharma could erode market share in respiratory vaccines. |
| Business quality | Medium | While the technology is innovative, the company is still building a stable, diversified commercial engine. |
| Dividend income | Low / none | There is no income component for investors. |
| Execution risk | Medium / high | Successful commercialization of its non-COVID pipeline is critical for long-term viability. |
Price Behavior
Strong Uptrend
The stock has maintained a strong upward price trend across the last three quarters.
Extreme Price Shocks
The stock has experienced exceptionally large and disruptive price movements during the period.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 205.29% | Avg. Invested days 34 | Today’s Advisory Strong Buy |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  4.0 | Stock Returns Performance  5.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 11/09/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Large-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 101.48B USD | Price to earnings Ratio - | 1Y Target Price 145.42 |
Price to earnings Ratio - | 1Y Target Price 145.42 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 17.5M shares | Beta 1.17 | 52 Weeks Range 22.28 - 280.80 | Updated Date 11/08/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 22.28 - 280.80 | Updated Date 11/08/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) - | Basic EPS (TTM) -7.04 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Infectious Disease Vaccines | Revenue primarily from the sale of Spikevax and development of respiratory vaccines. | This is currently the primary revenue engine for the company. |
| Pipeline R&D | Future products in oncology and rare diseases. | This is where future growth value is being created, but it does not generate profit yet. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Earnings Date
Report Date 2026-11-06 | When Before Market | Estimate -1.1 | Actual 0.38 |
Profitability
Profit Margin -110.46% | Operating Margin (TTM) 10.36% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) -9.96% | Return on Equity (TTM) -34.5% |
Valuation
Trailing PE - | Forward PE 23.04 | Enterprise Value 100.49B | Price to Sales(TTM) 40.19 |
Enterprise Value 100.49B | Price to Sales(TTM) 40.19 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 39.83 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 4.64 | Shares Outstanding 399.24M | Shares Floating 377.00M |
Shares Outstanding 399.24M | Shares Floating 377.00M | ||
Percent Insiders 7.36 | Percent Institutions 80.29 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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