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Upturn AI Summary - About
MGIC Investment Corp(MTG)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for MTG
10/16/2026: MTG (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
MGIC Investment Corp is a well-established provider of private mortgage insurance, helping lenders manage credit risk in the US housing market. The company benefits from a long history, extensive lender relationships, and a solid capital position, which are its primary strengths. The investment story centers on its ability to generate steady returns during periods of healthy housing activity and disciplined underwriting. However, investors must consider the risks posed by cyclical downturns, interest rate sensitivity, and competition from other insurers. MGIC is best suited for value-oriented investors who monitor housing and interest rate trends closely, as the stock is highly sensitive to broader real estate market developments.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | Growth is largely cyclical and tied to housing market health rather than secular expansion. |
| Momentum investor | Strong fit while signal remains positive | The stock can exhibit strong price trends during periods of housing market strength. |
| Value investor | Strong fit | The stock often trades at reasonable valuation multiples relative to earnings potential in stable markets. |
| Dividend investor | Mixed fit | Dividends are present but can be sensitive to macroeconomic cycles affecting insurance claims. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | The company's performance is closely tied to real estate and interest rate cycles, increasing volatility. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | Medium / high | The stock is highly sensitive to housing market and economic outlook changes. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | Market pricing of the stock often fluctuates based on expected future credit losses. |
| Competition risk (mortgage insurance competition) | High | The market is concentrated with a few large players competing on pricing. |
| Business quality | Medium / high | The franchise is established, but tied to cyclical, commoditized financial products. |
| Dividend income | Medium | Payouts are stable but not as high-yielding as traditional utility-like stocks. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Effective risk management and underwriting are critical to long-term profitability. |
Price Behavior
Rolling Over
The price momentum is slowing down and beginning to turn downward.
Moderately Choppy
The stock has experienced noticeable price swings while retaining some directional structure.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -0.51% | Avg. Invested days 50 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  2.0 | Stock Returns Performance  1.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/16/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Mid-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 5.71B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 8.7 | 1Y Target Price 31.4 |
Price to earnings Ratio 8.7 | 1Y Target Price 31.4 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 2.5M shares | Beta 0.67 | 52 Weeks Range 24.55 - 31.71 | Updated Date 10/18/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 24.55 - 31.71 | Updated Date 10/18/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 2.17% | Basic EPS (TTM) 3.2 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Private Mortgage Insurance | Premiums collected for assuming mortgage credit risk on loans. | The company earns money by taking on risk that homeowners might default; when the housing market is healthy, they keep the premiums. |
| Investment Portfolio | Returns on the large pool of assets held to cover potential insurance claims. | The company invests the cash it collects in a conservative portfolio to generate interest income. |
Valuation
Trailing PE 8.7 | Forward PE 8.68 | Enterprise Value 6.45B | Price to Sales(TTM) 4.78 |
Enterprise Value 6.45B | Price to Sales(TTM) 4.78 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 5.39 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA - | Shares Outstanding 205.12M | Shares Floating 191.09M |
Shares Outstanding 205.12M | Shares Floating 191.09M | ||
Percent Insiders 1.76 | Percent Institutions 101.82 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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