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Upturn AI Summary - About
Radian Group Inc(RDN)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for RDN
10/23/2026: RDN (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
Radian Group Inc is a leading provider of private mortgage insurance and ancillary real estate services, serving the U.S. mortgage market. The company benefits from a solid capital position and a diverse revenue mix that helps mitigate the cyclical nature of mortgage insurance. Its primary growth opportunity lies in digitizing the real estate transaction process and expanding its HomeServices division. However, investors must monitor risks related to interest rate sensitivity, housing market volatility, and intense competition from peers. The stock may suit value and dividend-focused investors seeking exposure to the housing market, provided they remain comfortable with cyclical economic risks.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | Radian is a mature, cyclical player rather than a high-growth disruptor, making it a better fit for value or income strategies. |
| Momentum investor | Mixed fit | The stock often follows broader housing market momentum; it is a fit only when the housing sector outlook is clearly positive. |
| Value investor | Strong fit | The company is often traded at reasonable multiples relative to its earnings power and strong balance sheet. |
| Dividend investor | Strong fit | Radian provides a consistent dividend yield and maintains a prudent payout ratio supported by strong operating cash flows. |
| Low-risk investor | Mixed fit | While the company is financially stable, its exposure to housing cycle volatility makes it inherently riskier than defensive utilities or staples. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | Medium / high | The stock price is highly sensitive to fluctuations in mortgage interest rates and macroeconomic housing data. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | Valuation is sensitive to changes in long-term housing demand and credit loss projections. |
| Competition risk (Mortgage Insurance) | High | Radian faces constant competitive pressure on pricing and service quality from other major private mortgage insurers. |
| Business quality | Medium | Radian has a solid, well-regulated business model but remains cyclical by nature. |
| Dividend income | Low | The dividend is considered stable and well-covered by earnings. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Successful growth depends on effectively scaling the newer real estate service lines and integrating technology. |
Price Behavior
Rolling Over
The price momentum is slowing down and beginning to turn downward.
Smooth
The stock has moved along a generally orderly path with only modest fluctuations.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -36.44% | Avg. Invested days 32 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  1.0 | Stock Returns Performance  1.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/23/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Mid-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 4.73B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 8.57 | 1Y Target Price 43.57 |
Price to earnings Ratio 8.57 | 1Y Target Price 43.57 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 2.0M shares | Beta 0.71 | 52 Weeks Range 30.53 - 40.76 | Updated Date 10/24/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 30.53 - 40.76 | Updated Date 10/24/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 2.94% | Basic EPS (TTM) 4.17 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Mortgage Insurance | Premiums charged for insuring against borrower defaults on residential mortgage loans. | This is the primary engine of the company, which thrives when more people buy homes and take out mortgages. |
| HomeServices | Title insurance, escrow, property valuations, and real estate asset management services. | This segment diversifies revenue by capturing fees from various parts of the real estate transaction process beyond just insurance. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Valuation
Trailing PE 8.57 | Forward PE 6.31 | Enterprise Value 5.71B | Price to Sales(TTM) 2.87 |
Enterprise Value 5.71B | Price to Sales(TTM) 2.87 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 3.47 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA - | Shares Outstanding 132.30M | Shares Floating 129.98M |
Shares Outstanding 132.30M | Shares Floating 129.98M | ||
Percent Insiders 1.66 | Percent Institutions 97.19 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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