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Upturn AI Summary - About
Bank Ozk(OZK)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for OZK
10/09/2026: OZK (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
Bank OZK is a regional bank known for its specialized focus on large-scale commercial real estate lending through its Real Estate Specialties Group. The company has historically maintained strong profit margins and an efficient operating structure under long-term leadership. Its primary growth story is the continued scale of its high-yield CRE lending business paired with efforts to modernize digital deposit gathering. However, investors face risks related to concentration in the real estate sector, economic cycles, and intense competition from larger banks. The stock may suit growth-oriented or income-seeking investors, but should be monitored for credit quality shifts and macro factors affecting real estate development.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Strong fit | The bank's specialized lending model has historically enabled periods of significant growth above the industry average. |
| Momentum investor | Strong fit while signal remains positive | The stock often follows technical trends driven by interest rate expectations and commercial real estate market sentiment. |
| Value investor | Strong fit | The company often trades at valuations that reflect inherent risks in the CRE market, providing entry points for disciplined investors. |
| Dividend investor | Strong fit | Bank OZK has a long history of raising dividends, making it a reliable income generator. |
| Low-risk investor | Mixed fit | The heavy concentration in commercial real estate introduces volatility that may exceed the tolerance of conservative investors. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | Medium / high | The stock's sensitivity to macroeconomic cycles and interest rate shifts can lead to significant price swings. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | Market pricing heavily hinges on the perceived quality of the loan portfolio and real estate market health. |
| Competition risk (CRE lending) | High | Bank OZK faces intense competition from both large money-center banks and alternative credit providers for high-quality loan originations. |
| Business quality | Strong | The bank's disciplined underwriting and historically high efficiency ratios signify a robust operational franchise. |
| Dividend income | Low / none | The dividend is well-supported by current earnings and a history of disciplined payout policies. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Maintaining superior underwriting standards as the bank scales remains a critical execution challenge. |
Price Behavior
Rolling Over
The price momentum is slowing down and beginning to turn downward.
Smooth
The stock has moved along a generally orderly path with only modest fluctuations.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -22.33% | Avg. Invested days 43 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  2.0 | Stock Returns Performance  1.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/09/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Mid-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 4.89B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 7.4 | 1Y Target Price 53.78 |
Price to earnings Ratio 7.4 | 1Y Target Price 53.78 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 1.4M shares | Beta 0.91 | 52 Weeks Range 41.16 - 53.18 | Updated Date 10/08/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 41.16 - 53.18 | Updated Date 10/08/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 4.18% | Basic EPS (TTM) 6.06 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Net Interest Income | Interest earned on CRE loans, commercial loans, and residential mortgages relative to interest paid on deposits. | Most of the bank's profit comes from the 'spread' between the interest it collects from borrowers and the interest it pays to depositors. |
| Non-Interest Income | Service charges, fees from deposit accounts, and other banking services. | This provides a smaller but steady stream of revenue that helps offset fluctuations in lending income. |
Valuation
Trailing PE 7.4 | Forward PE 7.64 | Enterprise Value 4.34B | Price to Sales(TTM) 3.15 |
Enterprise Value 4.34B | Price to Sales(TTM) 3.15 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 3.35 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA - | Shares Outstanding 109.04M | Shares Floating 100.60M |
Shares Outstanding 109.04M | Shares Floating 100.60M | ||
Percent Insiders 6.83 | Percent Institutions 99.15 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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