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Upturn AI Summary - About
PROG Holdings Inc(PRG)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for PRG
10/26/2026: PRG (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
PROG Holdings, Inc. is a fintech company focused on providing lease-to-own and installment payment solutions for credit-constrained consumers. Its main strength lies in a proprietary AI-driven underwriting engine that supports a wide network of retail partnerships. The company's primary growth story centers on scaling its Four Buy Now, Pay Later platform and integrating diverse credit products. Key risks include intense competition from larger fintech firms, sensitivity to macroeconomic downturns affecting subprime consumers, and potential regulatory changes in the alternative finance space. This stock may best suit investors interested in fintech growth who are comfortable with cyclical credit risk, and stakeholders should monitor quarterly credit performance and merchant acquisition trends.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | The company offers growth potential through its digital fintech expansion but faces stiff competition and macroeconomic headwinds. |
| Momentum investor | Mixed fit | Momentum is often conditional on positive earnings surprises and broader sentiment toward the consumer finance sector. |
| Value investor | Strong fit | The stock frequently trades at valuation multiples that may appeal to value-oriented investors looking for established fintech platforms. |
| Dividend investor | Mixed fit | The company manages shareholder returns, but capital is often prioritized for business reinvestment. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | The inherent volatility in consumer credit and sensitivity to macroeconomic cycles makes this a higher-risk security. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | High | The stock is subject to significant price swings based on consumer confidence and interest rate expectations. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | Market sentiment toward fintech companies can fluctuate, impacting the stock's P/E ratio. |
| Competition risk (Fintech/BNPL) | High | Increased competition from large players like Affirm could compress margins. |
| Business quality | Medium | The business has strong technology assets, though credit performance is susceptible to economic conditions. |
| Dividend income | Low | Income is not the primary focus of this investment strategy. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Successful integration and scaling of newer assets like Four are critical to future performance. |
Price Behavior
Rolling Over
The price momentum is slowing down and beginning to turn downward.
Choppy
The stock has experienced frequent reversals and pronounced short-term price swings.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -18.57% | Avg. Invested days 37 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  2.0 | Stock Returns Performance  1.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/26/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Small-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 1.21B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 9.7 | 1Y Target Price 52 |
Price to earnings Ratio 9.7 | 1Y Target Price 52 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 669.5K shares | Beta 1.78 | 52 Weeks Range 25.49 - 47.57 | Updated Date 10/25/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 25.49 - 47.57 | Updated Date 10/25/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 1.70% | Basic EPS (TTM) 3.12 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Progressive Leasing | Lease fees generated from virtual point-of-sale transactions. | This is the company's primary revenue driver. |
| Vive Financial | Interest and fee income from revolving credit products. | A secondary source of income targeting credit-constrained users. |
| Four BNPL | Merchant service fees and customer installment fees. | A growth-focused segment in the installment payments market. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Earnings Date
Report Date 2026-10-28 | When Before Market | Estimate 1.06 | Actual - |
Profitability
Profit Margin 5.61% | Operating Margin (TTM) 16.61% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 15.04% | Return on Equity (TTM) 17.07% |
Valuation
Trailing PE 9.7 | Forward PE 6.32 | Enterprise Value 2.22B | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.46 |
Enterprise Value 2.22B | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.46 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 0.85 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 1.25 | Shares Outstanding 39.83M | Shares Floating 38.27M |
Shares Outstanding 39.83M | Shares Floating 38.27M | ||
Percent Insiders 4.32 | Percent Institutions 111.48 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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