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Upturn AI Summary - About
Papa John\'s International Inc(PZZA)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for PZZA
11/10/2026: PZZA (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
Papa John's International is a global quick-service restaurant chain known for its pizza delivery and carryout model. The company's primary strength lies in its recognized brand and a resilient franchise-based business model that generates predictable royalty revenue. Growth opportunities are centered on international expansion and ongoing enhancements to its digital loyalty platform. However, the company faces risks from intense competition, rising labor costs, and operational pressures within the franchised network. Investors should monitor quarterly comparable sales and margin management in an inflationary environment. While the company is well-positioned, it is a mature player that may suit dividend-focused or long-term growth investors looking for exposure to the restaurant sector.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | Growth is largely driven by unit expansion rather than explosive market disruption. |
| Momentum investor | Mixed fit | Momentum is conditional on consistent quarterly comparable sales outperformance. |
| Value investor | Mixed fit | Valuation levels often fluctuate based on margin expectations and commodity cost outlooks. |
| Dividend investor | Strong fit | The company provides a reliable dividend stream supported by its franchise-based cash flow model. |
| Low-risk investor | Mixed fit | The restaurant industry is sensitive to economic cycles and consumer discretionary spending. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | Medium | Stock price moves in response to quarterly sales trends and industry-wide commodity shifts. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | Investors must weigh the company's growth potential against premium multiples relative to peers. |
| Competition risk (Pizza sector consolidation) | High | Intense competition from larger chains like Domino's can squeeze market share and pricing power. |
| Business quality | Strong | The franchise model generates steady, high-margin royalty streams. |
| Dividend income | Medium | Dividends are stable but may not offer the yield required by income-focused investors. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Success depends on consistent operational execution across thousands of franchised units. |
Price Behavior
Steep Decline
The stock price has dropped sharply with strong downward pressure.
Choppy
The stock has experienced frequent reversals and pronounced short-term price swings.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -48.83% | Avg. Invested days 29 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  2.0 | Stock Returns Performance  1.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 11/10/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Small-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 658.21M USD | Price to earnings Ratio 27.37 | 1Y Target Price 23.5 |
Price to earnings Ratio 27.37 | 1Y Target Price 23.5 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 1.5M shares | Beta 1.16 | 52 Weeks Range 17.70 - 42.79 | Updated Date 11/10/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 17.70 - 42.79 | Updated Date 11/10/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 6.65% | Basic EPS (TTM) 0.73 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Domestic Franchising | Royalty fees and marketing fund contributions from US-based franchise operators. | Steady, high-margin revenue stream that scales as more stores open. |
| North America Commissaries | Food production and distribution services for US restaurants. | Core operational backbone ensuring consistency across all locations. |
| International Operations | Franchise royalties and joint venture income from outside the United States. | The primary engine for long-term unit growth. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Earnings Date
Report Date 2026-11-05 | When Before Market | Estimate 0.1 | Actual 0.16 |
Profitability
Profit Margin 1.36% | Operating Margin (TTM) 3.39% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 8.71% | Return on Equity (TTM) - |
Valuation
Trailing PE 27.37 | Forward PE 19.01 | Enterprise Value 1.57B | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.34 |
Enterprise Value 1.57B | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.34 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 0.82 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 9.29 | Shares Outstanding 32.94M | Shares Floating 30.84M |
Shares Outstanding 32.94M | Shares Floating 30.84M | ||
Percent Insiders 6.74 | Percent Institutions 113.63 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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