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Upturn AI Summary - About
RXO Inc.(RXO)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for RXO
11/09/2026: RXO (1-star) has a low Upturn Star Rating. Not recommended to BUY.
RXO Inc. is a leading technology-enabled freight brokerage firm that operates an asset-light model connecting shippers with a vast network of carriers. Its primary strength lies in its proprietary digital platform, which enhances operational efficiency in the highly fragmented $100 billion freight brokerage market. The company’s core investment story focuses on scaling this platform and consolidating market share, particularly following its acquisition of Coyote Logistics. However, investors must consider risks such as intense competition, high sensitivity to cyclical freight market downturns, and the execution complexity of recent large acquisitions. RXO suits growth-oriented investors comfortable with industry cyclicality, and stakeholders should monitor freight volume trends and synergy progress.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Strong fit | The company offers exposure to the digitization of the massive, fragmented logistics industry. |
| Momentum investor | Mixed fit | Momentum depends on the cyclical recovery of the freight market and the successful integration of recent large acquisitions. |
| Value investor | Mixed fit | Valuation is tied to cyclical earnings, making it attractive when freight markets trough. |
| Dividend investor | Weak fit | RXO does not pay a dividend, making it unsuitable for income-focused portfolios. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | High volatility associated with freight market cycles makes this stock unsuitable for conservative investors. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | High | The stock price is heavily influenced by rapid shifts in freight demand and industry sentiment. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | Valuations fluctuate significantly based on expectations for cycle timing and margin expansion. |
| Competition risk (Logistics) | High | Intense pressure from established incumbents and tech-first startups threatens market share growth. |
| Business quality | Medium | The asset-light model is efficient but highly dependent on software quality and network density. |
| Dividend income | Low / none | Income investors will not find dividend yield here. |
| Execution risk | Medium | The successful integration of large acquisitions like Coyote Logistics is critical for long-term synergy realization. |
Price Behavior
Strong Uptrend
The stock has maintained a strong upward price trend across the last three quarters.
Highly Choppy
The stock has experienced frequent, large price swings that make its near-term movement less predictable.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -30.69% | Avg. Invested days 27 | Today’s Advisory Consider higher Upturn Star rating |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  2.0 | Stock Returns Performance  1.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 11/09/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Mid-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 4.61B USD | Price to earnings Ratio - | 1Y Target Price 29.83 |
Price to earnings Ratio - | 1Y Target Price 29.83 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 4.3M shares | Beta 1.85 | 52 Weeks Range 10.43 - 29.90 | Updated Date 11/09/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 10.43 - 29.90 | Updated Date 11/09/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) - | Basic EPS (TTM) -0.52 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Brokerage | Commission-based matching of shippers to carrier capacity for over-the-road freight. | They take a fee for connecting companies needing to move goods with the trucks available to move them. |
| Managed Transportation | Contracted logistics management and optimization services. | They act as an outsourced logistics department for companies to save them money on shipping. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Earnings Date
Report Date 2026-10-29 | When Before Market | Estimate 0.08 | Actual 0.09 |
Profitability
Profit Margin -1.35% | Operating Margin (TTM) 1.28% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 0.15% | Return on Equity (TTM) -5.69% |
Valuation
Trailing PE - | Forward PE 2500 | Enterprise Value 5.25B | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.7 |
Enterprise Value 5.25B | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.7 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 0.8 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 122.2 | Shares Outstanding 164.95M | Shares Floating 135.37M |
Shares Outstanding 164.95M | Shares Floating 135.37M | ||
Percent Insiders 0.76 | Percent Institutions 111.36 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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