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Upturn AI Summary - About
Advance Auto Parts Inc(AAP)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for AAP
11/12/2026: AAP (1-star) has a low Upturn Star Rating. Not recommended to BUY.
Advance Auto Parts is a prominent North American automotive aftermarket retailer that serves both retail DIY customers and professional repair shops. While the company has a strong presence and benefits from the essential nature of auto maintenance, it has recently struggled with operational inefficiencies and margin pressure compared to its peers. The current investment story centers on a major corporate turnaround plan aimed at optimizing supply chain logistics and store productivity. Investors face risks related to execution, intense competition, and broader industry shifts toward electric vehicles. This stock may suit those who believe in a successful operational recovery, though it remains a higher-risk play.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Weak fit | The company is currently in a restructuring phase rather than a high-growth expansion phase. |
| Momentum investor | Weak fit | The stock has faced sustained downward momentum; a positive signal is required before considering a fit. |
| Value investor | Mixed fit | The stock trades at a lower valuation, but this reflects significant operational risks that must be resolved. |
| Dividend investor | Weak fit | Recent dividend policy shifts make income generation less reliable than in previous periods. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | High operational volatility and execution risks make this unsuitable for conservative portfolios. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | High | Frequent earnings surprises and operational updates cause significant stock price swings. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | While the valuation appears low, it is tied to the successful execution of a difficult corporate turnaround. |
| Competition risk | High | Aggressive pricing from dominant peers and e-commerce platforms limits pricing power. |
| Business quality | Medium | The franchise has struggled with operational consistency compared to higher-margin competitors. |
| Dividend income | Medium / high | Changes in capital allocation have made the dividend less predictable. |
| Execution risk | High | The primary investment thesis depends on management successfully turning around the business. |
Key Highlights
Company Size Mid-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 2.76B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 22.51 | 1Y Target Price 48.45 |
Price to earnings Ratio 22.51 | 1Y Target Price 48.45 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 1.7M shares | Beta 1.04 | 52 Weeks Range 37.11 - 64.24 | Updated Date 11/12/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 37.11 - 64.24 | Updated Date 11/12/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 2.18% | Basic EPS (TTM) 2.03 |
Sector & Industry Intelligence
Sector
Consumer Cyclical
Constructive- Sentiment
- Strong Bullish
- Momentum
- BUY Breadth Improving
- BUY participation
- 67.4%
- Active BUY / eligible
- 31 / 46
- 30-Day BUY Count Change
- +23
- Market state
- Strong Bullish
More qualifying stocks are receiving or maintaining BUY advisories, indicating improving market participation.
Industry
Auto Parts
- BUY participation
- 0.0%
- Active BUY / eligible
- 0 / 3
- 30-Day BUY Count Change
- 0
Eligible universe: 3 stocks.
Sector signal summarizes BUY breadth conditions for the sector. It does not override this stock’s BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory.
Price Behavior
Downtrend
The stock has experienced a sustained decline in price over recent periods.
Choppy
The stock has experienced frequent reversals and pronounced short-term price swings.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 7.05% | Avg. Invested days 30 | Today’s Advisory Consider higher Upturn Star rating |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  3.0 | Stock Returns Performance  2.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 11/12/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| DIY Retail | In-store and online sales of parts and accessories to retail customers. | Selling parts directly to everyday drivers. |
| Professional (DIFM) | B2B parts delivery to professional repair shops. | Providing parts to garages that repair vehicles for a living. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Earnings Date
Report Date 2026-11-05 | When Before Market | Estimate 0.77 | Actual 0.79 |
Profitability
Profit Margin 1.16% | Operating Margin (TTM) 4.37% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 1.96% | Return on Equity (TTM) 5.57% |
Valuation
Trailing PE 22.51 | Forward PE 11.89 | Enterprise Value 4.87B | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.32 |
Enterprise Value 4.87B | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.32 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 0.57 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 7.93 | Shares Outstanding 60.40M | Shares Floating 60.13M |
Shares Outstanding 60.40M | Shares Floating 60.13M | ||
Percent Insiders 0.75 | Percent Institutions 129.95 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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