agilon health Inc(AGL)

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EXPLORE ADVISORIES AND THEIR HISTORY
QUALITY SIGNAL
1-STAR RATING
PASS
LAST CLOSE
$90.65
10/27/2026
(24-hour delay)

Advisory History & Simulated Performance *

*as per simulation (see disclosures)
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  • 1M
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  • BUY Advisory
  • SELL Advisory (Profit)
  • SELL Advisory (Loss)
  • Profit
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Upturn Stock price based on last close iconStock price based on last close
Simulated performance—not actual client returns. Excludes advisory subscription fees, trading commissions, and taxes, which would reduce returns. Results depend on calculation assumptions and do not guarantee future outcomes. See Disclosures for full methodology, assumptions, and limitations.

Advisory Performance History (Simulated)Advisory Performance History info

Simulated performance—not actual client returns. Excludes advisory subscription fees, trading commissions, and taxes, which would reduce returns. Results depend on calculation assumptions and do not guarantee future outcomes. See Disclosures for full methodology, assumptions, and limitations.

Upturn Advisory & Investor View for AGL

10/27/2026: AGL (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.

agilon health is a healthcare services company that provides a technology and operating platform for primary care physicians to transition into value-based care models for Medicare Advantage patients. The company has a notable position in this high-growth market, driven by its unique partnership-oriented business model. However, investors face significant risks, including exposure to unpredictable medical cost trends and ongoing regulatory scrutiny regarding Medicare reimbursement rates. The stock may suit growth-oriented investors willing to accept volatility, provided they monitor the company's ability to improve margins in mature cohorts. Key developments to watch include changes in CMS reimbursement policy and the performance metrics of their physician partner groups.

How to Read the Upturn Advisory

The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.

Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.

Investor Fit

Investor styleFitWhy
Growth investorMixed fitThe company operates in a high-growth sector, but execution risks regarding medical margins require careful monitoring.
Momentum investorWeak fitRecent price performance has been volatile, making it a challenging fit for momentum-based strategies currently.
Value investorMixed fitThe stock has seen a significant valuation contraction, but fundamental stability is still being established.
Dividend investorWeak fitThe company does not pay a dividend and is in an early-stage growth phase.
Low-risk investorWeak fitThe stock exhibits high price volatility and sensitivity to regulatory and medical cost risks.

Risk Profile

Risk factorLevelWhy it matters
Price volatilityHighThe stock price has shown significant swings based on sector-wide news regarding Medicare Advantage reimbursement.
Valuation riskMediumMarket sentiment toward high-growth, non-profitable healthcare companies can shift rapidly.
Competition risk (Direct competition)HighIntense competition from large, well-capitalized insurers and other care enablers threatens market share.
Business qualityMediumThe business model is innovative but still demonstrating the ability to consistently generate durable earnings.
Dividend incomeLow / noneInvestors should not expect income as capital is directed toward growth.
Execution riskHighSuccessfully managing the medical margins of patient cohorts is critical to the business model's viability.

Price Behavior

Rolling Over
PRICE PATH

Rolling Over

The price momentum is slowing down and beginning to turn downward.

Extreme Price Shocks
PRICE STABILITY

Extreme Price Shocks

The stock has experienced exceptionally large and disruptive price movements during the period.

Analysis of Past Performance

Type Stock
Historic Profit 326.93%
Avg. Invested days 31
Today’s Advisory PASS
Upturn Advisory Rating upturn star rating icon
Upturn Advisory Performance Upturn Advisory Performance icon 2.0
Stock Returns Performance Upturn Returns Performance icon 5.0
Upturn Profits based on simulation icon Profits based on simulation
Upturn last close icon Last Close 10/27/2026

Upturn Scorecard

Upturn Star Rating

★★★★★
AGL receives a 2-star rating, supported by solid analyst coverage. The rating is constrained by weak unit economics, and weak price momentum.

Company Fundamentals

★★★★★
AGL has moderate overall fundamentals (3 stars), with soft financial health, soft growth momentum, and solid ownership. In FY2025 versus FY2024, growth and ownership metrics are mixed: negative earnings growth (-55.8%), weak cash generation (FCF margin -2.0%), slightly negative revenue growth (-2.1%).

Financial Health Rating

★★★★★
AGL's financial health is soft, with the relatively strongest area being moderate efficiency, including operating-expense and cost-of-revenue discipline (opex 3.9% of revenue). Profitability is weak (1 stars), which helps explain the 2-star overall score.

Growth Momentum Score

★★★★★
AGL's growth profile is soft, with the least-weak measure being revenue growth at -2.1% FY2025 versus FY2024. By comparison, while earnings growth (-55.8%, negative) and free-cash-flow growth (-67.5%, negative) hold the profile back, so recent growth is not broad-based across the business.

Ownership

★★★★★
Institutional ownership is 97.2% and approximately 65.1% of outstanding shares are publicly tradable, supporting liquidity and institutional participation. Insider ownership of 5.04% supports management-shareholder alignment.

Top 5 Institutional Investors

Clayton Dubilier & Rice LLC 23.82%
Morgan Stanley - Brokerage Accounts 11.98%
North Peak Capital Management, LLC 8.84%
BlackRock Inc 6.83%
AQR Capital Management LLC 4.12%

Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)

★★★★★
AGL generates approximately $-32 of gross profit, $-71 of operating income, and $-20 of free cash flow for every $1,000 of revenue. Based on FY2025 results. Operating losses and cash burn explain the 1-star rating, with weak cash conversion and weak capital efficiency.

Economic Dimensions

★★★★★
Effective Tax Rate: -0.31% (Tax Credit)

Quantitative Style Profile

★★★★★
AGL has a liquid profile. Weak momentum is the primary drawback, while elevated volatility.

Style Classification

Quality Focused

Value-OrientedHigh VolatilitySmall / Mid Cap RiskShort Squeeze RiskHighly Liquid / Institution-Friendly

Key Highlights

Company Size Small-Cap Stock
Market Capitalization 1.52B USD
Price to earnings Ratio -
1Y Target Price 115.83
Price to earnings Ratio -
1Y Target Price 115.83
Volume (30-day avg) 214.9K shares
Beta 3
52 Weeks Range 7.48 - 133.04
Updated Date 10/27/2026
52 Weeks Range 7.48 - 133.04
Updated Date 10/27/2026
Dividends yield (FY) -
Basic EPS (TTM) -15.29

How Company Makes Money

Business areaWhat it includesRetail investor read
Partner Enablement FeesFees earned for managing the platform and administrative services for physician groups.The company gets paid to help doctors run their business more efficiently.
Risk Sharing ArrangementsPerformance-based payments linked to the reduction of total medical costs for assigned patients.The company earns more when they successfully help keep patients healthy and reduce unnecessary medical expenses.

Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth

Revenue by Products

Product revenue - Year on Year

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Valuation

Trailing PE -
Forward PE 178.57
Enterprise Value 1.36B
Price to Sales(TTM) 0.26
Enterprise Value 1.36B
Price to Sales(TTM) 0.26
Enterprise Value to Revenue 0.23
Enterprise Value to EBITDA -104.52
Shares Outstanding 16.79M
Shares Floating 10.93M
Shares Outstanding 16.79M
Shares Floating 10.93M
Percent Insiders 5.04
Percent Institutions 97.19

Financial Metrics

🧭 Investment Snapshot

Total Revenue (Scale)

Information icon Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.

Net Income (Profit)

Information icon Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.

Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)

Information icon Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.

📈 Growth & Strength

Operating Income (Core Profit)

Information icon Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.

EBITDA (Cash Earnings)

Information icon Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.

Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)

Information icon Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.

🛡️ Financial Safety

Cash (Liquidity Buffer)

Information icon Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.

Total Debt (Leverage Risk)

Information icon Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.

Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)

Information icon Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.

🧱 Balance Sheet Strength

Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)

Information icon Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.

Total Assets (Asset Base)

Information icon The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.

Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)

Information icon Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.

⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors

Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)

Information icon Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.

Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)

Information icon Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.

Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)

Information icon Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.

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