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Upturn AI Summary - About
AGNC Investment Corp.(AGNC)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for AGNC
10/23/2026: AGNC (2-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
AGNC Investment Corp. is a mortgage real estate investment trust that primarily invests in residential mortgage-backed securities guaranteed by U.S. government agencies. The company has a leading position in the mREIT sector, known for its internal management structure and proactive use of derivatives to hedge interest rate risk. While it offers a significant monthly dividend that attracts income-focused investors, the business model carries inherent risks related to interest rate volatility and leverage. Investors should monitor the company's book value per share and net interest margins closely, as macroeconomic shifts often dictate performance. It is best suited for those seeking high current income, provided they can tolerate share price fluctuations.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Weak fit | AGNC is primarily an income-focused vehicle rather than a capital appreciation play. |
| Momentum investor | Mixed fit | Momentum may be found during periods of favorable rate environments, provided the signal remains positive. |
| Value investor | Mixed fit | Value investors may look at the discount to book value, but volatility in that metric requires caution. |
| Dividend investor | Strong fit | AGNC is specifically structured to provide consistent, high monthly dividend income to shareholders. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | The use of high leverage and sensitivity to interest rates makes this stock too volatile for low-risk portfolios. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | High | The stock price fluctuates significantly based on interest rate expectations and hedging efficacy. |
| Valuation risk | Medium / high | Trading significantly above or below tangible book value can signal potential future adjustments. |
| Competition risk (mREIT sector) | Medium | Performance depends on the ability to source and finance mortgage assets better than peer mREITs. |
| Business quality | Medium | While internally managed, the business model is inherently subject to macroeconomic cycles beyond the firm's control. |
| Dividend income | High | Sustainability of the high monthly dividend is the primary concern for most retail investors. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Management must effectively hedge interest rate and prepayment risks to preserve book value. |
Price Behavior
Downtrend
The stock has experienced a sustained decline in price over recent periods.
Smooth
The stock has moved along a generally orderly path with only modest fluctuations.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 44.32% | Avg. Invested days 83 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  4.0 | Stock Returns Performance  3.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/23/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Large-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 10.48B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 176.8 | 1Y Target Price 9.59 |
Price to earnings Ratio 176.8 | 1Y Target Price 9.59 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 40.2M shares | Beta 1.34 | 52 Weeks Range 8.38 - 11.06 | Updated Date 10/25/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 8.38 - 11.06 | Updated Date 10/25/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 16.20% | Basic EPS (TTM) 0.05 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Net Interest Margin | Interest earned on agency RMBS assets minus the cost of financing and hedging. | AGNC makes money on the spread between what it earns on mortgages and what it pays to borrow money. |
Earnings Date
Report Date 2026-10-19 | When After Market | Estimate 0.39 | Actual 0.37 |
Profitability
Profit Margin 43.64% | Operating Margin (TTM) 102.11% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 0.09% | Return on Equity (TTM) 0.9% |
Valuation
Trailing PE 176.8 | Forward PE 6.3 | Enterprise Value 85.34B | Price to Sales(TTM) 44.41 |
Enterprise Value 85.34B | Price to Sales(TTM) 44.41 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 0.03 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA - | Shares Outstanding 1.19B | Shares Floating 1.25B |
Shares Outstanding 1.19B | Shares Floating 1.25B | ||
Percent Insiders 0.36 | Percent Institutions 41.03 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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