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- Upturn Summary
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Upturn AI Summary - About
Arthur J Gallagher & Co(AJG)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for AJG
11/02/2026: AJG (2-star) has a low Upturn Star Rating. Not recommended to BUY.
Arthur J Gallagher & Co is a leading global insurance brokerage and risk management firm known for its disciplined acquisition-led growth strategy. The company benefits from recurring fee-based revenue and a resilient business model that performs well across various economic cycles. Its primary growth opportunity lies in further expanding its international footprint and offering specialized consulting in areas like cyber risk. However, the company faces risks related to managing its complex acquisition pipeline, potential regulatory shifts, and intense competition from larger industry peers. It serves as a suitable candidate for growth and dividend-oriented investors seeking a stable, long-term industry player with consistent performance history.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Strong fit | The company maintains a reliable growth trajectory through a proven and repeatable M&A strategy. |
| Momentum investor | Mixed fit | Suitable for momentum strategies during periods of market outperformance and positive insurance cycle momentum. |
| Value investor | Weak fit | The stock often trades at a premium valuation reflecting its high-quality business model and consistency. |
| Dividend investor | Strong fit | Provides reliable income with a track record of dividend stability and growth. |
| Low-risk investor | Strong fit | The defensive nature of the insurance brokerage industry provides a buffer against broader market volatility. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | Medium | The stock can experience sensitivity to broad market corrections despite defensive fundamentals. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | Investors should be cautious of paying high multiples during peak insurance market cycles. |
| Competition risk | Medium | Consolidation among large global brokers like MMC and AON creates significant competitive pressure. |
| Business quality | Strong | The company maintains a resilient, fee-based revenue model with strong client retention. |
| Dividend income | Low | While consistent, the dividend yield is relatively modest compared to pure-play income stocks. |
| Execution risk | Medium | The success of the business is highly dependent on the continued effective integration of numerous smaller acquisitions. |
Price Behavior
Strong Uptrend
The stock has maintained a strong upward price trend across the last three quarters.
Moderately Choppy
The stock has experienced noticeable price swings while retaining some directional structure.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 3.63% | Avg. Invested days 34 | Today’s Advisory Consider higher Upturn Star rating |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  3.0 | Stock Returns Performance  1.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 11/02/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Large-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 70.79B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 42.15 | 1Y Target Price 291.44 |
Price to earnings Ratio 42.15 | 1Y Target Price 291.44 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 1.7M shares | Beta 0.55 | 52 Weeks Range 189.61 - 281.48 | Updated Date 11/02/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 189.61 - 281.48 | Updated Date 11/02/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 1.03% | Basic EPS (TTM) 6.55 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Brokerage | Commission and fee income from placing property, casualty, and benefits insurance. | This is the primary engine of the company, earning money by acting as the middleman between clients and insurers. |
| Risk Management | Fees for claims administration and safety/loss control consulting. | This segment provides steady, recurring revenue by helping clients manage and reduce their operational risks. |
| Geography | Operations spanning the US, UK, Australia, and various other international markets. | The company is well-diversified geographically, helping to mitigate localized economic downturns. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Earnings Date
Report Date 2026-10-29 | When After Market | Estimate 3.01 | Actual 3 |
Profitability
Profit Margin 11.01% | Operating Margin (TTM) 17.58% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 2.15% | Return on Equity (TTM) 7.21% |
Valuation
Trailing PE 42.15 | Forward PE 18.66 | Enterprise Value 83.06B | Price to Sales(TTM) 4.59 |
Enterprise Value 83.06B | Price to Sales(TTM) 4.59 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 5.08 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 19.71 | Shares Outstanding 256.42M | Shares Floating 253.89M |
Shares Outstanding 256.42M | Shares Floating 253.89M | ||
Percent Insiders 0.87 | Percent Institutions 95.65 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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