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Upturn stock rating
ALRM logo

Alarm.com Holdings Inc (ALRM)

Upturn stock rating
$51.04
Last Close (24-hour delay)
upturn advisory
PASS
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  • SELL Advisory (Profit)​
  • SELL Advisory (Loss)​
  • Profit
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Upturn Stock info Stock price based on last close
*as per simulation
(see disclosures)
Time period over
  • ALL
  • YEAR
  • MONTH
  • WEEK

Upturn Advisory Summary

10/22/2025: ALRM (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.

Upturn Star Rating

rating

Not Recommended Performance

These Stocks/ETFs, based on Upturn Advisory, consistently fall short of market performance, signaling caution before investing.

Number of Analysts

rating

9 Analysts rated it

Limited analyst coverage, niche firm, research info may be scarce.

1 Year Target Price $68.71

1 Year Target Price $68.71

Analysts Price Target For last 52 week
$68.71 Target price
52w Low $48.23
Current$51.04
52w High $70.06

Analysis of Past Performance

Type Stock
Historic Profit -16.09%
Avg. Invested days 49
Today’s Advisory PASS
Upturn Star Rating upturn star rating icon
Upturn Advisory Performance Upturn Advisory Performance 2.0
Stock Returns Performance Upturn Returns Performance 1.0
Upturn Profits based on simulation Profits based on simulation
Upturn Profits based on simulation Last Close 10/22/2025

Key Highlights

Company Size Mid-Cap Stock
Market Capitalization 2.55B USD
Price to earnings Ratio 21.5
1Y Target Price 68.71
Price to earnings Ratio 21.5
1Y Target Price 68.71
Volume (30-day avg) 9
Beta 1.04
52 Weeks Range 48.23 - 70.06
Updated Date 10/22/2025
52 Weeks Range 48.23 - 70.06
Updated Date 10/22/2025
Dividends yield (FY) -
Basic EPS (TTM) 2.38

Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth

Revenue by Products

Product revenue - Year on Year

Earnings Date

Report Date -
When -
Estimate -
Actual -

Profitability

Profit Margin 13.27%
Operating Margin (TTM) 12.63%

Management Effectiveness

Return on Assets (TTM) 3.99%
Return on Equity (TTM) 16.74%

Valuation

Trailing PE 21.5
Forward PE 26.25
Enterprise Value 2646830022
Price to Sales(TTM) 2.62
Enterprise Value 2646830022
Price to Sales(TTM) 2.62
Enterprise Value to Revenue 2.71
Enterprise Value to EBITDA 12.09
Shares Outstanding 49905032
Shares Floating 47453198
Shares Outstanding 49905032
Shares Floating 47453198
Percent Insiders 5.35
Percent Institutions 98.38

ai summary icon Upturn AI SWOT

Alarm.com Holdings Inc

stock logo

Company Overview

overview logo History and Background

Alarm.com was founded in 2000 as a spin-off from MicroStrategy. It initially focused on providing security monitoring services but has since expanded into a platform for smart home and business solutions. The company went public in 2015.

business area logo Core Business Areas

  • SaaS and Monitoring Services: This segment provides cloud-based services for interactive security, video monitoring, energy management, and automation. Includes recurring monthly revenue (RMR) from subscribers.
  • Hardware and Other: This segment includes the sale of security and automation hardware devices, such as sensors, cameras, and smart thermostats. It also includes other professional services.

leadership logo Leadership and Structure

Stephen Trundle serves as the President and CEO. The organizational structure includes departments for engineering, sales, marketing, finance, and operations, organized in a fairly traditional hierarchical structure.

Top Products and Market Share

overview logo Key Offerings

  • Interactive Security Solutions: Alarm.com's core offering, providing remote arming/disarming, real-time alerts, and emergency response features. Market share estimated at 25-30% of professionally monitored security market in North America. Competitors include ADT, Vivint, and SimpliSafe.
  • Smart Home Automation: Integrated control of lighting, thermostats, door locks, and other connected devices. While specific revenue figures for this segment are not publicly broken out, it is a significant growth driver. Competitors include Google Nest, Amazon Alexa, and Apple HomeKit ecosystems.
  • Video Monitoring: Cloud-based video surveillance solutions for homes and businesses. Includes live streaming, recorded video clips, and intelligent analytics. Revenue from this segment is included within the SaaS segment. Competitors include Arlo, Ring, and Nest.

Market Dynamics

industry overview logo Industry Overview

The home security and automation market is experiencing strong growth, driven by increasing consumer adoption of smart home technology, rising concerns about security, and the availability of affordable solutions. The professional monitored security market is also growing. The industry is also shifting toward DIY and hybrid models.

Positioning

Alarm.com is positioned as a leading provider of professionally monitored security and smart home solutions, focusing on a platform approach that integrates various devices and services. Their competitive advantages include a strong dealer network, advanced technology, and a focus on recurring revenue.

Total Addressable Market (TAM)

The TAM for smart home security is estimated to exceed $75 billion by 2027. Alarm.com is well-positioned to capture a significant portion of this market through its platform approach and dealer network.

Upturn SWOT Analysis

Strengths

  • Strong dealer network
  • Recurring revenue model
  • Advanced technology platform
  • Brand recognition
  • Scalable infrastructure

Weaknesses

  • Reliance on dealer network
  • Competition from DIY solutions
  • Potential for technological disruption
  • High marketing costs
  • Susceptible to supply chain issues for hardware

Opportunities

  • Expansion into new markets
  • Partnerships with smart home device manufacturers
  • Development of new services and features
  • Acquisition of complementary businesses
  • Increasing demand for smart home security solutions

Threats

  • Intense competition
  • Price pressure
  • Technological obsolescence
  • Cybersecurity risks
  • Economic downturn

Competitors and Market Share

competitor logo Key Competitors

  • ADT (ADT)
  • Vivint Smart Home (VVNT)
  • Resideo Technologies, Inc. (REZI)
  • Johnson Controls (JCI)
  • Comcast (CMCSA)

Competitive Landscape

Alarm.com differentiates itself through its strong dealer network and integrated platform. However, it faces competition from large players like ADT and Vivint, as well as DIY solutions like SimpliSafe.

Major Acquisitions

Connect Marketing

  • Year: 2021
  • Acquisition Price (USD millions): 9.3
  • Strategic Rationale: This acquisition was meant to enhance Alarm.com's lead generation and marketing capabilities for its dealer network.

OpenEye

  • Year: 2019
  • Acquisition Price (USD millions): 69.2
  • Strategic Rationale: The acquisition of OpenEye expanded Alarm.com's video surveillance capabilities and presence in the commercial market.

Growth Trajectory and Initiatives

Historical Growth: Alarm.com has experienced significant growth in revenue and subscribers over the past decade, driven by the increasing adoption of smart home security solutions.

Future Projections: Analysts project continued revenue growth for Alarm.com, driven by expansion into new markets and the development of new services. EPS is also expected to increase as the company leverages its scale and operating efficiency.

Recent Initiatives: Recent initiatives include partnerships with home builders, expansion into international markets, and the launch of new smart home devices.

Summary

Alarm.com exhibits a robust position in the smart home security market thanks to its strong dealer network and recurring revenue. Continued competition from DIY solutions and larger players pose risks. The company's focus on innovation and strategic acquisitions are key to future growth. Overall, Alarm.com demonstrates solid financial health with potential for further expansion.

Peer Comparison

Sources and Disclaimers

Data Sources:

  • Company SEC Filings (10-K, 10-Q), Investor Presentations, Market Research Reports, Analyst Reports

Disclaimers:

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Market conditions and company performance are subject to change.

Upturn AI Summarization AI Summarization is directionally correct and might not be accurate.

Upturn AI Summarization Summarized information shown could be a few years old and not current.

Upturn AI Summarization Fundamental Rating based on AI could be based on old data.

Upturn AI Summarization AI-generated summaries may have inaccuracies (hallucinations). Please verify the information before taking action.

About Alarm.com Holdings Inc

Exchange NASDAQ
Headquaters Tysons, VA, United States
IPO Launch date 2015-06-26
CEO & Director Mr. Stephen S. Trundle
Sector Technology
Industry Software - Application
Full time employees 2048
Full time employees 2048

Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. provides various Internet of Things (IoT) and solutions for residential, multi-family, small business, and enterprise commercial markets in North America and internationally. The company operates through Alarm.com and Other segments. It offers solutions to control and monitor security systems, as well as to IoT devices, including door locks, garage doors, thermostats, and video cameras; and video analytics, AI deterrence, vacation watch, video doorbells, intelligent integration, live streaming, secure cloud storage, and video alerts. The company also provides scenes, video analytics triggers, thermostat schedules, responsive savings, precision comfort, energy usage monitoring, places feature, whole home water safety, and solar monitoring solutions, as well as heating, ventilation, and air conditioning monitoring services. In addition, it offers demand response programs, commercial grade video, commercial video analytics, access control, cell connectors, enterprise dashboard and multi-site management, connected fleet, energy savings, protection for valuables and inventory, temperature monitoring, and daily safeguard solutions. Further, the company provides a permission-based online portal that provides account management, sales, marketing, training, and support tools; service dashboard, a unified interface that displays key operational and customer experience indicators; installation and support services; MobileTech Application and Remote Toolkit; video health reports; smart gateway; AI-powered enhancements to professional monitoring and false alarm reduction; Web services and business intelligence; sales, marketing, and training services; and home builder programs. Additionally, it offers electric utility grid and water management, indoor gunshot detection, and health and wellness and data-rich emergency response solutions. The company was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Tysons, Virginia.