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Upturn AI Summary - About
Alarm.com Holdings Inc(ALRM)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for ALRM
09/25/2026: ALRM (2-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
Alarm.com Holdings Inc is a cloud-based software provider that powers security and smart home automation systems for millions of properties. The company has a leading position in the industry, characterized by strong recurring revenue from its subscription-based business model and a vast, loyal network of independent service dealers. Its growth narrative centers on expanding into commercial enterprise and multi-family property markets while leveraging AI-enhanced video analytics. However, the company faces significant execution risks from well-capitalized tech-giant competitors and potential hardware supply chain disruptions. The stock may best suit growth-oriented investors looking for stable subscription dynamics, though monitoring the competitive environment and partner network health remains essential.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Strong fit | The company offers consistent double-digit growth in its recurring revenue-heavy business model. |
| Momentum investor | Mixed fit | Momentum is conditional on consistent growth signals and the ability to maintain market share against big-tech entrants. |
| Value investor | Mixed fit | The stock often trades at a premium multiple reflecting its software-like margins, which may not satisfy deep value criteria. |
| Dividend investor | Weak fit | Alarm.com does not pay a dividend, making it unsuitable for income-focused portfolios. |
| Low-risk investor | Mixed fit | While the recurring revenue is stable, the stock can experience volatility due to its growth-oriented valuation. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | Medium / high | Growth stocks like ALRM often experience significant price swings based on market sentiment and interest rate expectations. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | Investors pay for future growth, and any shortfall in quarterly performance can lead to rapid valuation adjustments. |
| Competition risk (Big Tech AI competition) | High | Amazon and Google have massive data and AI advantages that pose a long-term threat to traditional smart home platforms. |
| Business quality | Strong | The high percentage of recurring, subscription-based revenue provides a strong and durable foundation for the business. |
| Dividend income | Low / none | Investors cannot rely on the company for regular cash distributions. |
| Execution risk | Medium | The company must continuously innovate to keep its thousands of independent dealers competitive. |
Price Behavior
Strong Uptrend
The stock has maintained a strong upward price trend across the last three quarters.
Moderately Choppy
The stock has experienced noticeable price swings while retaining some directional structure.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -14.46% | Avg. Invested days 40 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  2.0 | Stock Returns Performance  1.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 09/25/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Mid-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 2.62B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 23.62 | 1Y Target Price 63 |
Price to earnings Ratio 23.62 | 1Y Target Price 63 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 417.8K shares | Beta 0.76 | 52 Weeks Range 41.49 - 58.15 | Updated Date 09/27/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 41.49 - 58.15 | Updated Date 09/27/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) - | Basic EPS (TTM) 2.26 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| SaaS & Subscription | Monthly recurring fees for cloud services, cellular connectivity, and advanced feature sets for residential and business users. | This is the core of the business, providing highly predictable and reliable cash flows. |
| Hardware Revenue | Sales of security panels, smart thermostats, video cameras, and peripherals to the dealer network. | Lower margin than software, but essential for customer acquisition and ecosystem lock-in. |
| Geography | Primary operations in North America, with expanding but smaller efforts internationally. | Highly dependent on the North American housing and security market trends. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Valuation
Trailing PE 23.62 | Forward PE 26.25 | Enterprise Value 2.71B | Price to Sales(TTM) 2.47 |
Enterprise Value 2.71B | Price to Sales(TTM) 2.47 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 2.55 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 12.43 | Shares Outstanding 49.09M | Shares Floating 46.59M |
Shares Outstanding 49.09M | Shares Floating 46.59M | ||
Percent Insiders 5.59 | Percent Institutions 101.73 |
Upturn AI Summary
AI Summarization is directionally correct and might not be accurate.
Summarized information shown could be a few years old and not current.
Fundamental Rating based on AI could be based on old data.
AI-generated summaries may have inaccuracies (hallucinations). Please verify the information before taking action.
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
About Alarm.com Holdings Inc
Exchange NASDAQ | Headquarters Tysons, VA, United States | ||
IPO Launch date 2015-06-26 | CEO & Director Mr. Stephen S. Trundle | ||
Sector Technology | Industry Software - Application | Full time employees 2051 | Website https://www.alarm.com |
Full time employees 2051 | Website https://www.alarm.com | ||
Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. operates a platform for connected properties in North America and internationally. It operates in two segments, Alarm.com and Other. The company offers residential solutions, such as alarm transmission, smart signal, smart arming, and personal safety and awareness, as well as real-time alerts and always-on monitoring; video monitoring solutions, including video analytics, remote video monitoring, AI deterrence, video doorbell, intelligent integration, and cell connector; scenes, video analytics triggers, smart thermostat schedules, responsive savings, precision comfort, HVAC monitoring service, places feature, whole home water safety solution, and energy usage and solar monitoring solution. It also provides clean energy software and services SaaS platform; commercial grade video solutions, commercial video analytics, smarter access control, enterprise dashboard and multi-site management, connected fleet solution, energy savings, proactive protection for valuables and inventory, temperature monitoring, daily safeguard, and professionally supported and low cost of ownership solutions. In addition, the company offers OpenEye software comprising video surveillance as a service, cameras, recorders, and other peripherals designed for video applications; forensic video search, point-of sale system integration, customer site mapping, and large-scale camera deployments enterprise-level requirements; shooter detection systems; service provider portal, service dashboard, installation and support service provider solutions; and AI-powered enhancements to professional monitoring and false alarm reduction. Further, it provides business management services; sales, marketing, training services; and home builder program hardware and services. The company was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Tysons, Virginia.
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