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ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc (ARR)
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Upturn Advisory Summary
12/05/2025: ARR (1-star) has a low Upturn Star Rating. Not recommended to BUY.
Upturn Star Rating
Not Recommended Performance
These Stocks/ETFs, based on Upturn Advisory, consistently fall short of market performance, signaling caution before investing.
Number of Analysts
7 Analysts rated it
Limited analyst coverage, niche firm, research info may be scarce.
1 Year Target Price $17
1 Year Target Price $17
| 1 | Strong Buy |
| 0 | Buy |
| 6 | Hold |
| 0 | Sell |
| 0 | Strong Sell |
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -3.84% | Avg. Invested days 44 | Today’s Advisory Consider higher Upturn Star rating |
Upturn Star Rating | Upturn Advisory Performance  2.0 | Stock Returns Performance  1.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 12/05/2025 |
Key Highlights
Company Size Small-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 1.98B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 92.53 | 1Y Target Price 17 |
Price to earnings Ratio 92.53 | 1Y Target Price 17 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 7 | Beta 1.43 | 52 Weeks Range 11.67 - 17.63 | Updated Date 12/7/2025 |
52 Weeks Range 11.67 - 17.63 | Updated Date 12/7/2025 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 16.51% | Basic EPS (TTM) 0.19 |
Earnings Date
Report Date - | When - | Estimate - | Actual - |
Profitability
Profit Margin 55.26% | Operating Margin (TTM) 92.31% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 0.39% | Return on Equity (TTM) 3.75% |
Valuation
Trailing PE 92.53 | Forward PE 5.91 | Enterprise Value 17134340096 | Price to Sales(TTM) 16.94 |
Enterprise Value 17134340096 | Price to Sales(TTM) 16.94 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 26.71 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 10.31 | Shares Outstanding 111898236 | Shares Floating 111555827 |
Shares Outstanding 111898236 | Shares Floating 111555827 | ||
Percent Insiders 0.26 | Percent Institutions 60.19 |
Upturn AI SWOT
ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc
Company Overview
History and Background
ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. (ARR) was founded in 2008 and is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that focuses on residential real estate. It primarily invests in and manages a portfolio of mortgage-related assets, including residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS). The company has evolved by strategically managing its portfolio to navigate fluctuating interest rate environments and market conditions.
Core Business Areas
- Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities (RMBS): ARMOUR Residential REIT invests in and manages a portfolio of RMBS, including agency RMBS guaranteed by government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and non-agency RMBS.
- Interest Rate Risk Management: A core function is to manage the interest rate risk associated with its MBS portfolio through various hedging strategies and financial instruments.
- Portfolio Management: The company actively manages its portfolio by buying and selling assets to optimize returns and adapt to market changes.
Leadership and Structure
ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. operates as a REIT. Its leadership team typically includes a Chief Executive Officer (CEO), Chief Financial Officer (CFO), and other senior executives responsible for portfolio management, risk management, and investor relations. The company is externally managed by ARMOUR Capital Management L.P., which provides investment management services.
Top Products and Market Share
Key Offerings
- Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities (Agency MBS): These are securities issued or guaranteed by government-sponsored entities such as Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae. ARR invests in these to generate interest income. Competitors include other REITs, institutional investors, and financial institutions. Market share for individual MBS products is not typically disclosed as ARR's portfolio is dynamic.
- Non-Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities (Non-Agency MBS): These are MBS not guaranteed by government entities, carrying higher credit risk but potentially higher yields. ARR's strategy involves selecting and managing these securities. Competitors include other specialized MBS funds and investment banks. Specific market share for ARR within this segment is not publicly available.
Market Dynamics
Industry Overview
The real estate investment trust (REIT) sector, particularly those focused on mortgage assets, is heavily influenced by interest rate movements, economic conditions, and housing market dynamics. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy plays a significant role in shaping the yield environment for MBS. The industry is characterized by intense competition among various types of investors seeking yield and diversification.
Positioning
ARMOUR Residential REIT positions itself as a specialist in residential mortgage-backed securities, aiming to generate attractive risk-adjusted returns through active portfolio management and hedging strategies. Its competitive advantage lies in its focused expertise in this specific asset class and its ability to manage interest rate sensitivity.
Total Addressable Market (TAM)
The TAM for mortgage-backed securities is vast, representing trillions of dollars in outstanding debt globally. ARMOUR Residential REIT, as a publicly traded REIT, targets a specific segment of this market focused on generating income from residential mortgages. Its positioning is that of a niche player within the broader MBS market, seeking to capitalize on specific market opportunities and arbitrage within the yield curve.
Upturn SWOT Analysis
Strengths
- Specialized expertise in mortgage-backed securities
- Active portfolio management and hedging strategies
- External management structure potentially offering cost efficiencies
- Focus on dividend income for shareholders
Weaknesses
- High sensitivity to interest rate fluctuations
- Reliance on leverage, which can amplify losses
- Complex financial instruments and strategies
- Dependence on the performance of the housing market and broader economy
Opportunities
- Potential for yield enhancement during periods of interest rate volatility
- Acquisition of distressed MBS assets
- Diversification into related mortgage assets
- Favorable economic conditions supporting the housing market
Threats
- Rising interest rates leading to declines in MBS values
- Increased prepayment speeds reducing expected yields
- Credit risk associated with non-agency MBS
- Regulatory changes impacting the mortgage and REIT industries
- Economic recession impacting housing market stability
Competitors and Market Share
Key Competitors
- Annaly Capital Management Inc (NLY)
- Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc (IVR)
- AG Mortgage Investment Trust Inc (MITT)
- Chimera Investment Corporation (CIM)
Competitive Landscape
ARMOUR Residential REIT competes with a number of other mortgage REITs that invest in similar asset classes. Its advantages include a focused strategy and experienced management in MBS. Disadvantages can arise from its high leverage and significant exposure to interest rate volatility, which can be more pronounced than in diversified REITs. Competitors may have larger scale, broader diversification, or different hedging approaches, influencing their relative performance.
Growth Trajectory and Initiatives
Historical Growth: ARR's historical growth has been characterized by its strategy of acquiring and managing a portfolio of residential mortgage-backed securities. Growth in book value and distributable income is dependent on its ability to generate net interest income and capital appreciation in its portfolio, often enhanced by leverage. Periods of declining interest rates have historically been more favorable for its growth.
Future Projections: Future projections for ARMOUR Residential REIT are highly contingent on the prevailing interest rate environment and the company's strategic adjustments. Analysts' projections often focus on expected dividend yields and changes in book value per share, taking into account the company's hedging effectiveness and asset allocation strategy. The outlook for the MBS market and regulatory landscape will be key factors.
Recent Initiatives: Recent initiatives likely involve active management of the portfolio to adapt to changing interest rate expectations, optimizing hedging strategies to mitigate interest rate risk, and potentially adjusting the allocation between agency and non-agency MBS. Strategic decisions regarding leverage levels are also ongoing considerations.
Summary
ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc is a mortgage REIT specializing in residential mortgage-backed securities. Its strength lies in its focused expertise and active portfolio management, but it faces significant risks from interest rate volatility and leverage. Opportunities exist in market dislocations, but threats from rising rates and economic downturns are persistent. The company's performance is intrinsically tied to the complex dynamics of the MBS market and monetary policy.
Similar Stocks
Sources and Disclaimers
Data Sources:
- Company SEC Filings (10-K, 10-Q)
- Investor Relations Websites
- Financial News and Data Providers
Disclaimers:
This analysis is based on publicly available information and is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice. Financial data and market share estimates are subject to change and may not be entirely precise.
AI Summarization is directionally correct and might not be accurate.
Summarized information shown could be a few years old and not current.
Fundamental Rating based on AI could be based on old data.
AI-generated summaries may have inaccuracies (hallucinations). Please verify the information before taking action.
About ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc
Exchange NYSE | Headquaters Vero Beach, FL, United States | ||
IPO Launch date 2007-12-03 | CEO and Vice Chairman Mr. Scott Jeffrey Ulm J.D. | ||
Sector Real Estate | Industry REIT - Mortgage | Full time employees - | Website https://www.armourreit.com |
Full time employees - | Website https://www.armourreit.com | ||
ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. invests in residential mortgage-backed securities (MBS) in the United States. Its securities portfolio primarily consists of the United States Government-sponsored entity's (GSE) and the Government National Mortgage Administration's issued or guaranteed securities backed by fixed rate, hybrid adjustable rate, and adjustable-rate home loans; and unsecured notes and bonds issued by the GSE and the United States treasuries, as well as money market instruments. The company has elected to be taxed as a real estate investment trust. As a result, it would not be subject to corporate income tax on that portion of its net income that is distributed to shareholders. ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. was incorporated in 2008 and is based in Vero Beach, Florida.
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