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Upturn AI Summary - About
ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc(ARR)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for ARR
11/10/2026: ARR (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc is a mortgage REIT that primarily invests in residential mortgage-backed securities guaranteed by U.S. government agencies. The company's business model centers on earning the 'spread' between low-cost short-term financing and the yields provided by these mortgage assets. While it offers an attractive monthly dividend for income-seeking investors, the business is highly sensitive to interest rate fluctuations and requires active management of leverage. Primary risks include market volatility, interest rate resets, and potential dividend cuts during periods of margin compression. Investors should monitor Federal Reserve policy and yield curve movements, as these are the main drivers of the company's valuation and income capacity.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Weak fit | This is an income-oriented REIT, not a capital appreciation growth stock. |
| Momentum investor | Mixed fit | Momentum may occur during specific interest rate cycles, but requires careful timing. |
| Value investor | Mixed fit | Value can be found when trading significantly below book value, though fundamentals remain volatile. |
| Dividend investor | Strong fit | The company is structured to pay out monthly dividends, appealing to yield-focused investors. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | The high leverage and sensitivity to rate changes make this unsuitable for risk-averse portfolios. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | High | Agency MBS valuations react sharply to interest rate changes. |
| Valuation risk | Medium / high | Trading near book value is common, but book value itself is highly volatile. |
| Competition risk (mREIT landscape) | Medium | Highly commoditized asset class limits pricing power. |
| Business quality | Medium | The business relies on external management and levered yield spreads. |
| Dividend income | High | Dividends are subject to reduction if net interest margins compress. |
| Execution risk | Medium / high | Hedging mistakes can lead to significant capital impairment. |
Price Behavior
Downtrend
The stock has experienced a sustained decline in price over recent periods.
Smooth
The stock has moved along a generally orderly path with only modest fluctuations.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -0.02% | Avg. Invested days 56 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  2.0 | Stock Returns Performance  1.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 11/10/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Small-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 1.81B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 255.4 | 1Y Target Price 15.56 |
Price to earnings Ratio 255.4 | 1Y Target Price 15.56 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 4.9M shares | Beta 1.45 | 52 Weeks Range 12.02 - 16.94 | Updated Date 11/10/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 12.02 - 16.94 | Updated Date 11/10/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 22.86% | Basic EPS (TTM) 0.05 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Agency MBS Portfolio | Interest income from residential mortgage-backed securities. | The company earns money by borrowing short-term at low rates and investing in long-term mortgage bonds. |
Earnings Date
Report Date 2026-10-21 | When After Market | Estimate 0.73 | Actual 0.71 |
Profitability
Profit Margin - | Operating Margin (TTM) 105.38% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) -0.25% | Return on Equity (TTM) -2.33% |
Valuation
Trailing PE 255.4 | Forward PE 5.46 | Enterprise Value 9.61B | Price to Sales(TTM) 165.4 |
Enterprise Value 9.61B | Price to Sales(TTM) 165.4 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 4.43 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 9.76 | Shares Outstanding 141.55M | Shares Floating 148.12M |
Shares Outstanding 141.55M | Shares Floating 148.12M | ||
Percent Insiders 0.19 | Percent Institutions 55.3 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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