Academy Sports Outdoors Inc logo

Academy Sports Outdoors Inc(ASO)

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EXPLORE ADVISORIES AND THEIR HISTORY
QUALITY SIGNAL RECENCY
2-STAR RATING
Consider higher Upturn Star rating
BUY for 36 days
PROFIT SINCE LAST BUY
+14.33% ▲
LAST CLOSE
$61.84
11/02/2026
(24-hour delay)

Advisory History & Simulated Performance *

*as per simulation (see disclosures)
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  • 1Y
  • 1M
  • 1W
  • BUY Advisory
  • SELL Advisory (Profit)
  • SELL Advisory (Loss)
  • Profit
  • Loss
  • PASS (Skip)
Upturn Stock price based on last close iconStock price based on last close
Simulated performance—not actual client returns. Excludes advisory subscription fees, trading commissions, and taxes, which would reduce returns. Results depend on calculation assumptions and do not guarantee future outcomes. See Disclosures for full methodology, assumptions, and limitations.

Advisory Performance History (Simulated)Advisory Performance History info

Simulated performance—not actual client returns. Excludes advisory subscription fees, trading commissions, and taxes, which would reduce returns. Results depend on calculation assumptions and do not guarantee future outcomes. See Disclosures for full methodology, assumptions, and limitations.

Upturn Advisory & Investor View for ASO

11/02/2026: ASO (2-star) has a low Upturn Star Rating. Not recommended to BUY.

Academy Sports Outdoors Inc is a regional specialty retailer providing a broad selection of sporting goods, apparel, and outdoor equipment. The company maintains a strong position in the Southern U.S., driven by a value-oriented model and an effective mix of private-label and national brands. Its primary growth opportunity lies in geographic expansion and improving omni-channel capabilities to capture a wider market. Risks include intense competition from national mass-market retailers, exposure to discretionary spending shifts, and the execution challenges of entering new regions. Academy may suit value-oriented investors who monitor the company's ability to maintain margins and successfully scale its store footprint into new territories.

How to Read the Upturn Advisory

The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.

Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.

Investor Fit

Investor styleFitWhy
Growth investorMixed fitThe company offers moderate growth potential through geographic expansion, though it operates in a mature retail sector.
Momentum investorWeak fitMomentum appeal is limited by the cyclical nature of retail and broader market economic headwinds.
Value investorStrong fitThe stock often trades at a valuation that reflects its steady cash flow and disciplined capital management.
Dividend investorMixed fitWhile the company pays a dividend, it is not primarily positioned as a high-yield income stock.
Low-risk investorMixed fitRetail volatility and economic sensitivity mean the stock can experience significant price fluctuations.

Risk Profile

Risk factorLevelWhy it matters
Price volatilityMedium / highConsumer-facing retail stocks are highly reactive to macroeconomic shifts.
Valuation riskMediumInvestor sentiment regarding retail performance can lead to valuation compression.
Competition risk (Mass-market and E-commerce)HighIntense pricing pressure from digital and mass-retail giants limits margin expansion.
Business qualityMediumThe company has solid operations but faces challenges in scaling to a national level.
Dividend incomeLowDividends are a secondary component of the total return profile.
Execution riskMediumSuccessful expansion depends on effective site selection and regional store management.

Price Behavior

Downtrend
PRICE PATH

Downtrend

The stock has experienced a sustained decline in price over recent periods.

Moderately Choppy
PRICE STABILITY

Moderately Choppy

The stock has experienced noticeable price swings while retaining some directional structure.

Analysis of Past Performance

Type Stock
Historic Profit 24.79%
Avg. Invested days 39
Today’s Advisory Consider higher Upturn Star rating
Upturn Advisory Rating upturn star rating icon
Upturn Advisory Performance Upturn Advisory Performance icon 3.0
Stock Returns Performance Upturn Returns Performance icon 3.0
Upturn Profits based on simulation icon Profits based on simulation
Upturn last close icon Last Close 11/02/2026

Upturn Scorecard

Upturn Star Rating

★★★★★
ASO receives a 3-star rating based on the available scored pillars. The rating is constrained by soft unit economics, weak price momentum, and limited analyst upside.

Company Fundamentals

★★★★★
ASO has moderate overall fundamentals (3 stars), with moderate financial health, moderate growth momentum, and solid ownership. In FY2026 versus FY2025, growth and ownership metrics are mixed: negative earnings growth (-10.0%), soft cash generation (FCF margin 3.7%), moderate revenue growth (+2.0%).

Financial Health Rating

★★★★★
ASO's financial health is supported by solid cash strength, including free-cash-flow generation (3.7% of revenue). Profitability is moderate (3 stars), which helps explain the 3-star overall score.

Growth Momentum Score

★★★★★
Revenue growth is ASO's strongest growth driver at +2.0% FY2026 versus FY2025 (moderate, 3 stars). By comparison, while earnings growth (-10.0%, negative) and free-cash-flow growth (-32.4%, negative) hold the profile back, so recent growth is not broad-based across the business.

Ownership

★★★★★
Institutional ownership is 122.9% and approximately 98.5% of outstanding shares are publicly tradable, supporting liquidity and institutional participation. Insider ownership of 1.56% provides only moderate management-shareholder alignment.

Top 5 Institutional Investors

BlackRock Inc 16.13%
FMR Inc 15.08%
Dimensional Fund Advisors, Inc. 6.64%
Vanguard Portfolio Management, LLC 6.21%
LSV Asset Management 5.20%

Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)

★★★★★
ASO generates approximately $348 of gross profit, $85 of operating income, and $37 of free cash flow for every $1,000 of revenue. Based on FY2026 results. Soft margins explain the 2-star rating, with weak cash conversion and moderate capital efficiency.

Economic Dimensions

★★★★★
Effective Tax Rate: 22.48%

Quantitative Style Profile

★★★★★
ASO has a high-quality, liquid profile. Weak momentum is the primary drawback.

Style Classification

Quality Focused

Value-OrientedQuality TiltSmall / Mid Cap RiskShort Squeeze RiskHighly Liquid / Institution-Friendly

Key Highlights

Company Size Mid-Cap Stock
Market Capitalization 3.65B USD
Price to earnings Ratio 9.93
1Y Target Price 60.89
Price to earnings Ratio 9.93
1Y Target Price 60.89
Volume (30-day avg) 1.3M shares
Beta 0.98
52 Weeks Range 40.83 - 62.51
Updated Date 11/01/2026
52 Weeks Range 40.83 - 62.51
Updated Date 11/01/2026
Dividends yield (FY) 0.96%
Basic EPS (TTM) 5.96

How Company Makes Money

Business areaWhat it includesRetail investor read
In-Store RetailPhysical store sales across the US South and Midwest.The bulk of revenue comes from customers visiting physical stores to purchase gear.
E-commerceOnline sales through the Academy website and mobile app.Digital growth is a key area for expanding reach beyond physical stores.

Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth

Revenue by Products

Product revenue - Year on Year

Valuation

Trailing PE 9.93
Forward PE 8.4
Enterprise Value 5.31B
Price to Sales(TTM) 0.59
Enterprise Value 5.31B
Price to Sales(TTM) 0.59
Enterprise Value to Revenue 0.86
Enterprise Value to EBITDA 8.01
Shares Outstanding 61.58M
Shares Floating 60.68M
Shares Outstanding 61.58M
Shares Floating 60.68M
Percent Insiders 1.56
Percent Institutions 122.86

Financial Metrics

🧭 Investment Snapshot

Total Revenue (Scale)

Information icon Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.

Net Income (Profit)

Information icon Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.

Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)

Information icon Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.

📈 Growth & Strength

Operating Income (Core Profit)

Information icon Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.

EBITDA (Cash Earnings)

Information icon Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.

Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)

Information icon Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.

🛡️ Financial Safety

Cash (Liquidity Buffer)

Information icon Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.

Total Debt (Leverage Risk)

Information icon Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.

Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)

Information icon Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.

🧱 Balance Sheet Strength

Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)

Information icon Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.

Total Assets (Asset Base)

Information icon The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.

Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)

Information icon Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.

⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors

Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)

Information icon Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.

Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)

Information icon Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.

Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)

Information icon Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.

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