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Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG)

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Upturn Advisory Summary
02/20/2026: CMG (2-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
1 Year Target Price $44.32
1 Year Target Price $44.32
| 20 | Strong Buy |
| 4 | Buy |
| 10 | Hold |
| 0 | Sell |
| 0 | Strong Sell |
Key Highlights
Company Size Large-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 49.64B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 32.93 | 1Y Target Price 44.32 |
Price to earnings Ratio 32.93 | 1Y Target Price 44.32 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 34 | Beta 1 | 52 Weeks Range 29.75 - 58.42 | Updated Date 02/20/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 29.75 - 58.42 | Updated Date 02/20/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) - | Basic EPS (TTM) 1.14 |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Earnings Date
Report Date 2026-02-10 | When - | Estimate 0.2387 | Actual 0.25 |
Profitability
Profit Margin 12.88% | Operating Margin (TTM) 15.21% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 13.88% | Return on Equity (TTM) 47.36% |
Valuation
Trailing PE 32.93 | Forward PE 30.77 | Enterprise Value 51309161900 | Price to Sales(TTM) 4.16 |
Enterprise Value 51309161900 | Price to Sales(TTM) 4.16 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 4.3 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 21.61 | Shares Outstanding 1302423000 | Shares Floating 1292954385 |
Shares Outstanding 1302423000 | Shares Floating 1292954385 | ||
Percent Insiders 0.62 | Percent Institutions 91.17 |
Upturn AI SWOT
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc

Company Overview
History and Background
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. was founded by Steve Ells in July 1993 in Denver, Colorado. Its initial concept was to offer high-quality, fast-casual Mexican food using fresh, locally sourced ingredients. Chipotle became a publicly traded company in January 2006. Key milestones include rapid expansion, a focus on 'Food with Integrity' promoting ethical sourcing and sustainable agriculture, and overcoming challenges related to food safety incidents in the mid-2010s. The company has since focused on rebuilding trust and enhancing its digital capabilities and customer experience.
Core Business Areas
- Restaurant Operations: Chipotle's primary business is the operation of its fast-casual Mexican-inspired restaurants. These restaurants serve burritos, bowls, tacos, and salads made to order with a focus on fresh ingredients. The company emphasizes a 'make-line' assembly process where customers can customize their meals.
- Digital and Delivery: Chipotle has significantly invested in its digital platform, including its website and mobile app, to facilitate online ordering, catering, and delivery services. This segment has grown substantially, especially in recent years, to meet evolving consumer preferences.
Leadership and Structure
Chipotle is led by a Chief Executive Officer (CEO) and a management team responsible for operations, marketing, finance, and human resources. The company operates under a corporate structure with a board of directors overseeing strategic decisions. Key leadership roles include CEO, Chief Financial Officer (CFO), Chief Marketing Officer (CMO), and Chief Restaurant Officer.
Top Products and Market Share
Key Offerings
- Burritos: A signature item at Chipotle, customizable with various fillings like grilled meats, rice, beans, salsa, and cheese. Competitors include Taco Bell, Qdoba Mexican Eats, and local taquerias. Market share data for individual items is not publicly disclosed but burritos are a core driver of sales.
- Bowls: Similar to burritos but served without a tortilla, offering a customizable meal experience. Competitors are the same as for burritos. Bowls are a popular choice for health-conscious consumers.
- Tacos: Offered in various styles, including crispy and soft tortillas, with a range of protein and topping options. Competitors are broad, spanning many fast-food and fast-casual chains. This is a significant revenue generator.
- Salads: Fresh salads with customizable ingredients, appealing to customers seeking lighter options. Competitors include other fast-casual salad chains and restaurants offering salads as part of their menu.
Market Dynamics
Industry Overview
The fast-casual restaurant industry is highly competitive and growing, driven by consumer demand for healthier options, convenience, and customizable meals. Key trends include the expansion of digital ordering and delivery, a focus on sustainability and ethical sourcing, and the increasing importance of plant-based and healthier ingredient choices.
Positioning
Chipotle is positioned as a leading fast-casual Mexican-inspired restaurant chain known for its commitment to 'Food with Integrity,' emphasizing fresh ingredients and sustainable practices. Its competitive advantages include a strong brand recognition, a loyal customer base, a robust digital platform, and a commitment to quality. The company differentiates itself through its fresh ingredient promise and customizable 'make-line' experience.
Total Addressable Market (TAM)
The total addressable market for the fast-casual dining sector in the US is estimated to be in the hundreds of billions of dollars and continues to grow. Chipotle's positioning within this TAM is significant, as it is one of the largest players. The company aims to capture a larger share through continued store expansion, digital innovation, and menu enhancements.
Upturn SWOT Analysis
Strengths
- Strong brand recognition and customer loyalty.
- Commitment to 'Food with Integrity' (fresh, high-quality ingredients).
- Robust digital ordering and delivery platform.
- Successful expansion of drive-thru Chipotlanes.
- Experienced leadership team focused on operational efficiency and growth.
Weaknesses
- Susceptibility to food safety concerns and reputational damage.
- High labor costs and potential for employee turnover.
- Dependence on supply chain for specific ingredients.
- Limited menu innovation compared to some competitors.
Opportunities
- Continued expansion into new markets and international growth.
- Further development of digital ordering and loyalty programs.
- Introduction of new menu items and limited-time offers.
- Leveraging AI and technology for operational improvements and customer personalization.
- Expanding catering and bulk order services.
Threats
- Intensifying competition from other fast-casual and quick-service restaurants.
- Rising ingredient and labor costs.
- Changes in consumer preferences and dietary trends.
- Economic downturns affecting consumer spending.
- Regulatory changes impacting food safety and labor practices.
Competitors and Market Share
Key Competitors
- Yum! Brands (YUM) - Taco Bell
- Qdoba Mexican Eats (Private)
- El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. (LOCO)
- Chuy's Holdings, Inc. (CHUY)
Competitive Landscape
Chipotle's advantage lies in its strong brand, focus on quality ingredients, and efficient digital/delivery infrastructure. However, competitors like Taco Bell offer a wider variety of price points and menu items, while Qdoba offers similar customization. Chipotle's premium pricing and commitment to specific sourcing can be a disadvantage when competing on price alone. The company needs to continually innovate and maintain its quality perception to stay ahead.
Growth Trajectory and Initiatives
Historical Growth: Chipotle has a history of strong historical growth, characterized by rapid store expansion and increasing same-store sales. While growth was impacted by food safety issues, the company has demonstrated resilience and a return to robust growth in recent years, driven by strategic initiatives and strong operational execution.
Future Projections: Analyst consensus generally projects continued revenue and earnings growth for Chipotle in the coming years. Projections are supported by expected same-store sales increases, new restaurant openings (including Chipotlanes), and ongoing investments in digital capabilities and operational efficiency. Projected revenue growth for the next fiscal year is often in the high single digits to low double digits.
Recent Initiatives: Recent initiatives include the accelerated rollout of Chipotlanes (drive-thru lanes for digital orders), expansion of the 'Chipotle IQ' loyalty program, introduction of new menu items like the 'Smokey Poblano Bowl' and chicken al pastor, and continued focus on enhancing operational throughput and efficiency.
Summary
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. is a robust leader in the fast-casual sector, demonstrating strong revenue and profit growth driven by its 'Food with Integrity' ethos and expanding digital capabilities. The company's strategic focus on Chipotlanes and loyalty programs is yielding positive results. While facing intense competition and rising costs, Chipotle's brand loyalty and commitment to quality provide a solid foundation. Continued expansion and menu innovation are key to sustaining its growth trajectory and market position.
Similar Stocks
Sources and Disclaimers
Data Sources:
- Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. Official Investor Relations Website
- U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Filings (10-K, 10-Q)
- Reputable financial news outlets (e.g., Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal)
- Financial data providers (e.g., Refinitiv, FactSet)
- Industry research reports
Disclaimers:
This analysis is based on publicly available information and is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Market share data for individual products and competitors is an estimation based on industry trends and reports, as specific granular data is not always disclosed. Financial figures are based on reported data and may be subject to revision. Investors should conduct their own due diligence before making investment decisions.
AI Summarization is directionally correct and might not be accurate.
Summarized information shown could be a few years old and not current.
Fundamental Rating based on AI could be based on old data.
AI-generated summaries may have inaccuracies (hallucinations). Please verify the information before taking action.
About Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc
Exchange NYSE | Headquaters Newport Beach, CA, United States | ||
IPO Launch date 2006-01-26 | CEO & Director Mr. Scott Boatwright | ||
Sector Consumer Cyclical | Industry Restaurants | Full time employees 130301 | Website https://www.chipotle.com |
Full time employees 130301 | Website https://www.chipotle.com | ||
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants. It sells food and beverages, such as burritos, burrito bowls, quesadillas, tacos, and salads, as well as kids's meals, chips, and sides. It offers Mexican-inspired meals using responsibly sourced meats, such as chicken, beef, and pork branded as Responsibly Raised. The company also provides digital ordering through its website, mobile app, and third-party delivery platforms. It has operations in the United States, Canada, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom. Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Newport Beach, California.

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