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CMG 
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG)
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Upturn Advisory Summary
10/31/2025: CMG (2-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
Upturn Star Rating
Below Average Performance
These Stocks/ETFs, based on Upturn Advisory, often underperform the market, warranting careful consideration before investing.
Number of Analysts
34 Analysts rated it
Highly popular stock, broad analyst coverage, trusted insights, strong investor interest.
1 Year Target Price $44.61
1 Year Target Price $44.61
| 20 | Strong Buy |
| 4 | Buy |
| 10 | Hold |
| 0 | Sell |
| 0 | Strong Sell |
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 42.68% | Avg. Invested days 66 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Star Rating | Upturn Advisory Performance  5.0 | Stock Returns Performance  3.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/31/2025 |
Key Highlights
Company Size Large-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 41.90B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 28.04 | 1Y Target Price 44.61 |
Price to earnings Ratio 28.04 | 1Y Target Price 44.61 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 34 | Beta 0.99 | 52 Weeks Range 31.01 - 66.74 | Updated Date 11/2/2025 |
52 Weeks Range 31.01 - 66.74 | Updated Date 11/2/2025 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) - | Basic EPS (TTM) 1.13 |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Earnings Date
Report Date 2025-10-29 | When After Market | Estimate 0.3 | Actual 0.29 |
Profitability
Profit Margin 13.04% | Operating Margin (TTM) 16.13% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 13.58% | Return on Equity (TTM) 44.96% |
Valuation
Trailing PE 28.04 | Forward PE 28.49 | Enterprise Value 57231532950 | Price to Sales(TTM) 3.55 |
Enterprise Value 57231532950 | Price to Sales(TTM) 3.55 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 4.94 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 24.4 | Shares Outstanding 1322278000 | Shares Floating 1312903049 |
Shares Outstanding 1322278000 | Shares Floating 1312903049 | ||
Percent Insiders 0.67 | Percent Institutions 90.62 |
Upturn AI SWOT
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc
Company Overview
History and Background
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. was founded in 1993 by Steve Ells in Denver, Colorado. It aimed to demonstrate that fast food could be served quickly and inexpensively, without sacrificing quality or taste. It expanded rapidly in the 2000s and went public in 2006.
Core Business Areas
- Restaurant Operations: Chipotle operates and supports company-owned restaurants. They are primarily focused on offering burritos, bowls, tacos, salads, and quesadillas made with fresh ingredients.
Leadership and Structure
Brian Niccol is the Chairman and CEO. The company has a board of directors overseeing strategic direction.
Top Products and Market Share
Key Offerings
- Burritos: Chipotle's signature product. Competitors include Qdoba, Moe's Southwest Grill, and local Mexican restaurants. Market share data isn't directly available for individual products, but Chipotle holds a significant portion of the fast-casual Mexican market. Revenue from burritos is significant, likely a major portion of overall sales.
- Bowls: A deconstructed burrito served in a bowl. Competitors are similar to burritos: Qdoba, Moe's Southwest Grill, and local Mexican restaurants. Market share data isn't directly available for individual products, but Chipotle holds a significant portion of the fast-casual Mexican market. Bowls contribute substantially to Chipotle's revenue stream.
- Tacos: Tacos offered with various fillings. Competitors include Taco Bell, Del Taco, and other Mexican fast-food chains. Market share data isn't directly available for individual products, but Chipotle holds a significant portion of the fast-casual Mexican market. Tacos are a popular menu item and contribute to overall sales.
Market Dynamics
Industry Overview
The fast-casual restaurant industry is competitive, with increasing demand for healthier, customizable options. Trends include digital ordering, delivery, and sustainable practices.
Positioning
Chipotle positions itself as a premium fast-casual restaurant offering fresh, high-quality ingredients. Its competitive advantage lies in its brand reputation, focus on 'Food With Integrity,' and efficient operations.
Total Addressable Market (TAM)
The global fast-casual restaurant market is projected to reach hundreds of billions of dollars. Chipotle is well-positioned to capture a significant share due to its strong brand and expanding presence.
Upturn SWOT Analysis
Strengths
- Strong brand recognition
- Commitment to fresh ingredients
- Efficient restaurant operations
- Loyal customer base
- Focus on digital innovation
Weaknesses
- History of food safety issues
- Relatively higher prices compared to fast food
- Dependence on a limited menu
- Vulnerability to supply chain disruptions
Opportunities
- Expansion into new markets
- Menu innovation and diversification
- Increased focus on digital channels and delivery
- Partnerships with complementary businesses
- Leveraging customer loyalty programs
Threats
- Intense competition from other fast-casual restaurants
- Fluctuations in ingredient costs
- Changing consumer preferences
- Economic downturns
- Negative publicity from food safety incidents
Competitors and Market Share
Key Competitors
- QSR
- YUM
- CMG
Competitive Landscape
Chipotle has a strong brand and loyal customer base, but faces competition from other fast-casual and fast-food chains. Its focus on fresh ingredients differentiates it, but its higher prices can be a disadvantage.
Major Acquisitions
Cultivate Next Ventures
- Year: 2022
- Acquisition Price (USD millions):
- Strategic Rationale: Venture fund to invest in innovative businesses aligned with Chipotle's mission.
Growth Trajectory and Initiatives
Historical Growth: Chipotle has experienced significant growth in revenue and restaurant count over the past decade, although with some setbacks due to food safety concerns. It is currently in a growth stage.
Future Projections: Analyst estimates project continued revenue growth driven by new restaurant openings, same-store sales increases, and digital sales growth.
Recent Initiatives: Recent initiatives include menu innovation (e.g., new protein options), digital platform enhancements, and expansion of Chipotlane drive-thrus.
Summary
Chipotle is a strong player in the fast-casual market due to its focus on fresh ingredients and digital innovation. While vulnerabilities related to supply chain and cost, food safety incidents and economic downturns exits, its brand loyalty and growth initiatives position it well for future success. Its digital business and expansion of Chipotlanes contribute significantly. The company needs to remain vigilent and proactive in mitigating food-safety risks.
Similar Stocks
Sources and Disclaimers
Data Sources:
- SEC filings
- Market research reports
- Company press releases
- Analyst reports
Disclaimers:
The information provided is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Market conditions and company performance can change rapidly.
AI Summarization is directionally correct and might not be accurate.
Summarized information shown could be a few years old and not current.
Fundamental Rating based on AI could be based on old data.
AI-generated summaries may have inaccuracies (hallucinations). Please verify the information before taking action.
About Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc
Exchange NYSE | Headquaters Newport Beach, CA, United States | ||
IPO Launch date 2006-01-26 | CEO & Director Mr. Scott Boatwright | ||
Sector Consumer Cyclical | Industry Restaurants | Full time employees 130000 | Website https://www.chipotle.com |
Full time employees 130000 | Website https://www.chipotle.com | ||
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants. It sells food and beverages, such as burritos, burrito bowls, quesadillas, tacos, and salads, as well as lifestyle bowls, kids's meal, chips, sides, and drinks. The company also provides delivery and related services through its app and website. It has operations in the United States, Canada, France, Germany, Dubai, and the United Kingdom. Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Newport Beach, California.
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