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Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG)



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Upturn Advisory Summary
06/12/2025: CMG (3-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
Year Target Price $57.94
Year Target Price $57.94
20 | Strong Buy |
4 | Buy |
10 | Hold |
0 | Under performing |
0 | Sell |
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 67.76% | Avg. Invested days 77 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Star Rating ![]() ![]() | Upturn Advisory Performance ![]() | Stock Returns Performance ![]() |
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Key Highlights
Company Size Large-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 74.17B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 48.72 | 1Y Target Price 57.75 |
Price to earnings Ratio 48.72 | 1Y Target Price 57.75 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) - | Beta 1.06 | 52 Weeks Range 44.46 - 66.74 | Updated Date 06/29/2025 |
52 Weeks Range 44.46 - 66.74 | Updated Date 06/29/2025 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) - | Basic EPS (TTM) 1.13 |
Earnings Date
Report Date - | When - | Estimate - | Actual - |
Profitability
Profit Margin 13.59% | Operating Margin (TTM) 17.3% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 14.35% | Return on Equity (TTM) 45.57% |
Valuation
Trailing PE 48.72 | Forward PE 45.66 | Enterprise Value 77390745200 | Price to Sales(TTM) 6.46 |
Enterprise Value 77390745200 | Price to Sales(TTM) 6.46 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 6.74 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 32.74 | Shares Outstanding 1347360000 | Shares Floating 1338080662 |
Shares Outstanding 1347360000 | Shares Floating 1338080662 | ||
Percent Insiders 0.68 | Percent Institutions 90.08 |
Analyst Ratings
Rating 4.29 | Target Price 57.94 | Buy 4 | Strong Buy 20 |
Buy 4 | Strong Buy 20 | ||
Hold 10 | Sell - | Strong Sell - | |
Strong Sell - |
Upturn AI SWOT
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc

Company Overview
History and Background
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. was founded in 1993 by Steve Ells in Denver, Colorado. It aimed to offer a fast-casual dining experience with high-quality ingredients and customizable meals. Significant milestones include its initial public offering in 2006 and expansion across the United States and internationally. Chipotle has evolved from a single restaurant to a major player in the fast-casual dining sector.
Core Business Areas
- Restaurant Operations: Chipotle's primary business involves operating and franchising Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants. These restaurants serve a variety of Mexican-inspired dishes, including burritos, bowls, tacos, and salads.
Leadership and Structure
Brian Niccol serves as the Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. The organizational structure is hierarchical, with regional and district managers overseeing restaurant operations. The board of directors provides strategic oversight.
Top Products and Market Share
Key Offerings
- Burritos: Burritos are a core product, consisting of a flour tortilla filled with rice, beans, meat (or sofritas), salsa, guacamole, and other toppings. Chipotleu2019s burritos are a significant revenue driver. Competitors include Qdoba, Moe's Southwest Grill, and various local burrito shops.
- Bowls: Bowls offer the same ingredients as burritos but without the tortilla, catering to health-conscious consumers. Bowls are a popular choice and contribute significantly to revenue. Competitors include Sweetgreen and other fast-casual salad and bowl concepts.
- Tacos: Tacos are offered with a choice of fillings and toppings. Tacos contribute to overall sales. Competitors include Taco Bell and local taquerias.
- Salads: Salads offer a light and healthy choice with similar ingredients to burritos and bowls. Salads are important in drawing in different customer segment. Competitors include Sweetgreen, Tender Greens and Just Salad.
Market Dynamics
Industry Overview
The fast-casual dining industry is characterized by higher quality ingredients and a more customized experience compared to traditional fast food. It's a competitive market with increasing consumer demand for healthier and ethically sourced food options.
Positioning
Chipotle is positioned as a leader in the fast-casual Mexican food segment. Its competitive advantages include its commitment to fresh ingredients, customizable menu, and brand recognition.
Total Addressable Market (TAM)
The global fast-casual market is estimated to be worth hundreds of billions of dollars. Chipotle is positioned to capture a significant portion of this market through expansion and innovation.
Upturn SWOT Analysis
Strengths
- Strong brand recognition
- Focus on fresh, high-quality ingredients
- Customizable menu
- Efficient restaurant operations
- Strong digital ordering capabilities
Weaknesses
- Past food safety incidents impacting reputation
- Price point higher than traditional fast food
- Reliance on a limited menu
- Supply chain vulnerabilities
Opportunities
- Expansion into new markets
- Menu innovation (e.g., plant-based options)
- Enhancing digital ordering and delivery
- Loyalty program enhancements
Threats
- Increased competition from other fast-casual chains
- Fluctuations in food costs
- Changes in consumer preferences
- Economic downturn impacting discretionary spending
Competitors and Market Share
Key Competitors
- QSR
- YUM
- TACO
Competitive Landscape
Chipotle's advantages include its strong brand, fresh ingredients, and customizable menu. Disadvantages include a higher price point and past food safety issues compared to some competitors.
Growth Trajectory and Initiatives
Historical Growth: Chipotle has experienced significant growth in revenue and restaurant count over the past decade, with some fluctuations due to food safety incidents.
Future Projections: Analysts project continued growth in revenue and earnings driven by new restaurant openings, same-store sales growth, and digital initiatives.
Recent Initiatives: Recent initiatives include expanding digital ordering capabilities, introducing new menu items (e.g., carne asada), and enhancing the loyalty program.
Summary
Chipotle demonstrates strength through its brand recognition and dedication to fresh ingredients, but needs to monitor for supply chain vulnerabilities and food safety. Continued menu innovation and digital expansion are working well, driving growth. Economic downturns and competitive pressure remain potential challenges. Overall, Chipotle exhibits a strong growth trajectory with minor areas for potential improvement.
Peer Comparison
Sources and Disclaimers
Data Sources:
- Company Filings
- Analyst Reports
- Industry Reports
Disclaimers:
The information provided is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Market conditions are subject to change.
AI Summarization is directionally correct and might not be accurate.
Summarized information shown could be a few years old and not current.
Fundamental Rating based on AI could be based on old data.
AI-generated summaries may have inaccuracies (hallucinations). Please verify the information before taking action.
About Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc
Exchange NYSE | Headquaters Newport Beach, CA, United States | ||
IPO Launch date 2006-01-26 | CEO & Director Mr. Scott Boatwright | ||
Sector Consumer Cyclical | Industry Restaurants | Full time employees 130504 | Website https://www.chipotle.com |
Full time employees 130504 | Website https://www.chipotle.com |
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants. It sells food and beverages, such as burritos, burrito bowls, quesadillas, tacos, and salads, as well as lifestyle bowls, kids's meal, chips, sides, and drinks. The company also provides delivery and related services through its app and website. It has operations in the United States, Canada, France, Germany, Dubai, and the United Kingdom. Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Newport Beach, California.
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