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Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG)

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Upturn Advisory Summary
12/18/2025: CMG (2-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
1 Year Target Price $43.18
1 Year Target Price $43.18
| 20 | Strong Buy |
| 4 | Buy |
| 10 | Hold |
| 0 | Sell |
| 0 | Strong Sell |
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 42.68% | Avg. Invested days 66 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Star Rating ![]() | Upturn Advisory Performance | Stock Returns Performance |
Key Highlights
Company Size Large-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 50.47B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 33.31 | 1Y Target Price 43.18 |
Price to earnings Ratio 33.31 | 1Y Target Price 43.18 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 34 | Beta 0.99 | 52 Weeks Range 29.75 - 62.43 | Updated Date 12/19/2025 |
52 Weeks Range 29.75 - 62.43 | Updated Date 12/19/2025 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) - | Basic EPS (TTM) 1.13 |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Earnings Date
Report Date - | When - | Estimate - | Actual - |
Profitability
Profit Margin 13.04% | Operating Margin (TTM) 16.13% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 13.58% | Return on Equity (TTM) 44.96% |
Valuation
Trailing PE 33.31 | Forward PE 31.35 | Enterprise Value 53316164140 | Price to Sales(TTM) 4.28 |
Enterprise Value 53316164140 | Price to Sales(TTM) 4.28 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 4.52 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 22.7 | Shares Outstanding 1322278000 | Shares Floating 1313061722 |
Shares Outstanding 1322278000 | Shares Floating 1313061722 | ||
Percent Insiders 0.59 | Percent Institutions 90.4 |
Upturn AI SWOT
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc

Company Overview
History and Background
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. was founded by Steve Ells in 1993 in Denver, Colorado. It started with a mission to serve food made with high-quality, fresh ingredients in a fast-casual setting. Key milestones include its initial public offering (IPO) in 2006, significant growth in store count throughout the 2000s and 2010s, and a period of intense scrutiny and operational challenges related to food safety incidents in the mid-2010s. The company has since focused on recovery, innovation, and expansion.
Core Business Areas
- Restaurant Operations: Chipotle's core business is operating a chain of fast-casual restaurants serving burritos, bowls, tacos, and salads. The company emphasizes its 'Food with Integrity' philosophy, sourcing high-quality ingredients and preparing them using classic culinary techniques.
- Digital and Delivery: This segment includes revenue generated through Chipotle's digital ordering platforms (website and app) and third-party delivery services. This has become an increasingly significant part of their business model.
Leadership and Structure
Chipotle is led by a Chief Executive Officer (CEO) and a Board of Directors. The company operates under a centralized management structure with regional and district managers overseeing restaurant operations. Key leadership roles include CEO, Chief Financial Officer (CFO), Chief Operating Officer (COO), and Chief Marketing Officer (CMO).
Top Products and Market Share
Key Offerings
- Burritos: Large, customizable flour tortilla wraps filled with rice, beans, protein (chicken, steak, barbacoa, carnitas, sofritas, or tofu), salsa, and other toppings. Competitors include Qdoba, Moe's Southwest Grill, and other fast-casual Mexican-inspired restaurants.
- Bowls: Similar to burritos but served without the tortilla, allowing for a more customizable and potentially lower-carb option. Competitors are the same as for burritos.
- Tacos: Soft or crispy tortillas filled with various ingredients, similar to burrito fillings. Competitors are the same as for burritos.
- Salads: A healthier option featuring a base of greens with various toppings and dressings. Competitors include Sweetgreen, Cava, and other salad-focused eateries.
Market Dynamics
Industry Overview
Chipotle operates in the highly competitive fast-casual restaurant sector, a segment of the broader quick-service restaurant (QSR) industry. This sector is characterized by a focus on fresh ingredients, customizable options, and a slightly higher price point than traditional fast food. Key trends include the increasing demand for healthier options, plant-based proteins, digital ordering and delivery, and a focus on sustainability and ethical sourcing.
Positioning
Chipotle positions itself as a leader in the fast-casual Mexican-inspired dining space, differentiated by its commitment to 'Food with Integrity,' which emphasizes high-quality, responsibly sourced ingredients. Its strong brand recognition and focus on customizable meals are key competitive advantages. The company has also invested heavily in its digital infrastructure to enhance convenience and expand reach.
Total Addressable Market (TAM)
The TAM for the fast-casual dining market is substantial and continues to grow, driven by consumer preferences for convenience, quality, and customization. While precise TAM figures vary by research firm, it's in the hundreds of billions of dollars globally. Chipotle is well-positioned to capture a significant share of this market due to its established brand, scalable model, and ongoing investment in digital channels.
Upturn SWOT Analysis
Strengths
- Strong brand recognition and customer loyalty.
- Commitment to 'Food with Integrity' and high-quality ingredients.
- Scalable business model with a large store footprint.
- Robust digital ordering and delivery platform.
- Experienced management team focused on operational improvement.
Weaknesses
- Vulnerability to food safety issues and associated negative publicity.
- Relatively higher price point compared to traditional fast food.
- Dependence on a limited menu offering, although customization provides variety.
- Challenges in maintaining consistent quality across all locations.
- Potential for increased competition in the fast-casual space.
Opportunities
- Expansion into international markets.
- Further development of digital ordering and delivery capabilities.
- Introduction of new menu items and limited-time offers (LTOs).
- Leveraging technology for operational efficiency and customer experience.
- Growth in plant-based and vegetarian offerings.
- Continued emphasis on sustainability and social responsibility to enhance brand appeal.
Threats
- Intensifying competition from existing and new fast-casual players.
- Rising ingredient and labor costs.
- Economic downturns impacting consumer discretionary spending.
- Changes in consumer dietary trends and preferences.
- Regulatory changes related to food safety, labor, and environmental practices.
- Potential for supply chain disruptions.
Competitors and Market Share
Key Competitors
- Qdoba Mexican Eats (Private)
- Moe's Southwest Grill (Focused Brands)
- Pancheros Mexican Grill (Private)
- Chuy's Holdings, Inc. (CHUY)
- Del Taco Restaurants, Inc. (TACO - Delisting soon, acquired by LBO)
- Wingstop Inc. (WING)
Competitive Landscape
Chipotle's advantage lies in its established brand, focus on quality ingredients, and robust digital ecosystem. However, it faces intense competition from a variety of players, from other fast-casual Mexican chains to broader fast-food and fast-casual restaurants offering similar convenience and customization. Competitors like Qdoba and Moe's offer similar menus, while newer entrants and established brands are also vying for market share.
Growth Trajectory and Initiatives
Historical Growth: Chipotle experienced rapid growth in its early years, followed by a period of significant challenges. In recent years, the company has successfully navigated these challenges and resumed a strong growth trajectory, marked by increasing comparable store sales, unit expansion, and digital channel growth.
Future Projections: Analyst projections generally indicate continued revenue and earnings growth for Chipotle in the coming years. Key drivers are expected to include new restaurant openings, same-store sales growth, and further optimization of its digital and operational capabilities. International expansion is also a potential area for future growth.
Recent Initiatives: Recent initiatives include the rollout of new menu items (e.g., carne asada, quesadillas), enhancements to the digital app, expansion of drive-thru 'Chipotlanes', and a continued focus on employee development and retention.
Summary
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. is a strong player in the fast-casual dining sector, demonstrating a remarkable recovery and consistent growth. Its commitment to quality ingredients and its robust digital strategy are key drivers of success. The company needs to remain vigilant against increasing competition, rising costs, and potential food safety concerns to maintain its upward trajectory and capitalize on further expansion opportunities.
Similar Stocks
Sources and Disclaimers
Data Sources:
- Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. Investor Relations
- Financial News Outlets (e.g., Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg)
- Market Research Reports (e.g., Statista, Grand View Research)
- Company Filings (e.g., SEC filings)
Disclaimers:
This information is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Financial data and market share estimates are subject to change and may vary depending on the source. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
AI Summarization is directionally correct and might not be accurate.
Summarized information shown could be a few years old and not current.
Fundamental Rating based on AI could be based on old data.
AI-generated summaries may have inaccuracies (hallucinations). Please verify the information before taking action.
About Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc
Exchange NYSE | Headquaters Newport Beach, CA, United States | ||
IPO Launch date 2006-01-26 | CEO & Director Mr. Scott Boatwright | ||
Sector Consumer Cyclical | Industry Restaurants | Full time employees 130000 | Website https://www.chipotle.com |
Full time employees 130000 | Website https://www.chipotle.com | ||
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants. It sells food and beverages, such as burritos, burrito bowls, quesadillas, tacos, and salads, as well as lifestyle bowls, kids's meal, chips, sides, and drinks. The company also provides delivery and related services through its app and website. It has operations in the United States, Canada, France, Germany, Dubai, and the United Kingdom. Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Newport Beach, California.

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