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McDonald’s Corporation(MCD)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for MCD
09/18/2026: MCD (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
McDonald’s Corporation is a global quick-service restaurant company with a leading position supported by its extensive real estate portfolio and franchise-heavy business model. The company is known for strong operating margins and consistent cash flow, which it uses to fund dividends and reinvest in technology, such as its growing digital and delivery platforms. While the firm offers stability and a reliable dividend for income-oriented investors, it faces persistent risks from rising labor costs, intense competition, and shifting consumer preferences. Investors should monitor the effectiveness of its digital modernization and its ability to maintain pricing power in an inflationary environment.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | While the company uses technology to drive growth, it is a mature, established firm rather than a high-growth disruptor. |
| Momentum investor | Strong fit while signal remains positive | The stock often trends positively during periods of strong market performance and successful strategic execution. |
| Value investor | Mixed fit | The company often trades at a premium multiple due to its quality and defensive nature, which may not always satisfy deep-value requirements. |
| Dividend investor | Strong fit | The consistent dividend growth and reliable payout history make it a core holding for income-focused portfolios. |
| Low-risk investor | Strong fit | Its resilient business model and global brand provide stability, making it suitable for risk-averse investors. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | Low | The stock historically demonstrates lower beta than the broader market due to its defensive nature. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | Investors may overpay during periods of market enthusiasm, potentially limiting future capital appreciation. |
| Competition risk (QSR/Fast Casual) | Medium / high | Aggressive pricing and menu innovation from competitors can erode market share and affect margins. |
| Business quality | Strong | The high percentage of franchised locations creates a predictable and recurring revenue stream. |
| Dividend income | Strong | The history of consecutive annual dividend increases provides high confidence for income-oriented investors. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Successful implementation of digital and menu strategies is critical to maintaining momentum in a competitive environment. |
Price Behavior
Downtrend
The stock has experienced a sustained decline in price over recent periods.
Very Smooth
The stock has followed a highly orderly price path with minimal short-term disruption.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 8.61% | Avg. Invested days 49 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  2.0 | Stock Returns Performance  2.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 09/18/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Large-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 175.66B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 20.18 | 1Y Target Price 312.84 |
Price to earnings Ratio 20.18 | 1Y Target Price 312.84 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 4.5M shares | Beta 0.41 | 52 Weeks Range 247.65 - 335.18 | Updated Date 09/18/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 247.65 - 335.18 | Updated Date 09/18/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 2.96% | Basic EPS (TTM) 12.3 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Franchise Royalties | Revenue collected from independent franchisees for the right to operate under the brand, based on a percentage of sales. | This is the most profitable part of the business, generating consistent cash flow with low overhead. |
| Rental Income | Rent paid by franchisees for the land and building leased from McDonald's. | Acting as a landlord provides a stable, inflation-hedged revenue stream. |
| Company-Operated Restaurants | Direct sales of food and beverages at corporate-owned locations. | These locations serve as testbeds for new products and technology but have lower profit margins than franchised stores. |
| Geography | Global operations split into the US, International Operated Markets, and Developmental Licensed Markets. | The US is the largest single market, but growth is increasingly reliant on international adoption of digital platforms. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Valuation
Trailing PE 20.18 | Forward PE 17.79 | Enterprise Value 229.60B | Price to Sales(TTM) 6.34 |
Enterprise Value 229.60B | Price to Sales(TTM) 6.34 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 8.29 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 15.23 | Shares Outstanding 707.64M | Shares Floating 706.58M |
Shares Outstanding 707.64M | Shares Floating 706.58M | ||
Percent Insiders 0.26 | Percent Institutions 76.34 |
Upturn AI Summary
AI Summarization is directionally correct and might not be accurate.
Summarized information shown could be a few years old and not current.
Fundamental Rating based on AI could be based on old data.
AI-generated summaries may have inaccuracies (hallucinations). Please verify the information before taking action.
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
About McDonald’s Corporation
Exchange NYSE | Headquarters Chicago, IL, United States | ||
IPO Launch date 1965-04-21 | Chairman President, & CEO Mr. Christopher J. Kempczinski | ||
Sector Consumer Cyclical | Industry Restaurants | Full time employees 150000 | Website https://www.mcdonalds.com |
Full time employees 150000 | Website https://www.mcdonalds.com | ||
McDonald's Corporation owns, operates, and franchises restaurants under the McDonald's brand in the United States and internationally. It offers food and beverages, including hamburgers and cheeseburgers, various chicken sandwiches, fries, shakes, frozen desserts, sundaes, soft serve cones, cookies, pies, soft drinks, coffee, and other beverages; and full or limited breakfast, as well as sells various other products during limited-time promotions. The company owns and operates franchised restaurants under various structures, including conventional franchise, developmental license, or affiliate. McDonald's Corporation was founded in 1940 and is based in Chicago, Illinois.
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