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Upturn AI Summary - About
CTO Realty Growth Inc(CTO)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for CTO
11/02/2026: CTO (2-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
CTO Realty Growth is a REIT focused on owning and managing a high-quality portfolio of retail-based properties and providing commercial real estate loans. The company has successfully transformed from a legacy land holder into an income-oriented REIT, characterized by active portfolio management and an emphasis on Sunbelt markets. Its main strength lies in a disciplined capital recycling strategy that aims to improve yields. However, the company faces risks related to market volatility, interest rate fluctuations, and competitive pressures within the retail real estate space. It is best suited for dividend-focused investors, and stakeholders should monitor the company's ongoing execution of its acquisition and capital allocation strategy.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | Growth is largely driven by asset recycling and portfolio expansion rather than rapid organic scaling. |
| Momentum investor | Mixed fit | Performance is highly dependent on market cycles and successful execution of capital recycling. |
| Value investor | Strong fit | The company's focus on asset value and potential for discount to NAV can attract value-oriented REIT investors. |
| Dividend investor | Strong fit | As a REIT, CTO provides steady income potential through consistent dividend payouts. |
| Low-risk investor | Mixed fit | While assets are high-quality, the smaller market cap and active management strategy introduce relative volatility. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | Medium / high | Smaller REITs often experience higher price swings compared to large-cap sector peers. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | Investors must assess whether the share price adequately reflects the underlying net asset value of the property portfolio. |
| Competition risk (retail/commercial REITs) | High | Intense competition for quality retail assets can compress spreads and limit acquisition opportunities. |
| Business quality | Medium | The transition to a focused retail REIT has improved quality but involves ongoing operational execution. |
| Dividend income | Medium | Dividend sustainability depends on consistent FFO growth and disciplined capital allocation. |
| Execution risk | Medium / high | Success relies heavily on the management team's ability to identify and close accretive property transactions. |
Price Behavior
Rolling Over
The price momentum is slowing down and beginning to turn downward.
Very Smooth
The stock has followed a highly orderly price path with minimal short-term disruption.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 28.12% | Avg. Invested days 53 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  4.0 | Stock Returns Performance  3.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 11/02/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Small-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 763.96M USD | Price to earnings Ratio 17.6 | 1Y Target Price 24 |
Price to earnings Ratio 17.6 | 1Y Target Price 24 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 372.1K shares | Beta 0.63 | 52 Weeks Range 15.42 - 22.31 | Updated Date 11/01/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 15.42 - 22.31 | Updated Date 11/01/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 7.76% | Basic EPS (TTM) 1.12 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Retail Property Leasing | Rental income from multi-tenant retail centers and single-tenant net lease properties. | The core of the business is collecting rent from stable, reliable retail tenants. |
| Commercial Lending | Interest income from structured financing provided to commercial real estate developers. | This provides supplemental income and broadens the company's financial footprint. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Earnings Date
Report Date 2026-10-27 | When After Market | Estimate 0.52 | Actual 0.55 |
Profitability
Profit Margin 26.13% | Operating Margin (TTM) 25.11% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 1.93% | Return on Equity (TTM) 7.18% |
Valuation
Trailing PE 17.6 | Forward PE 121.95 | Enterprise Value 1.43B | Price to Sales(TTM) 4.49 |
Enterprise Value 1.43B | Price to Sales(TTM) 4.49 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 8.4 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 10.32 | Shares Outstanding 38.76M | Shares Floating 35.34M |
Shares Outstanding 38.76M | Shares Floating 35.34M | ||
Percent Insiders 8.83 | Percent Institutions 66.26 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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