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Dollar Tree Inc(DLTR)
Today’s top pick 
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for DLTR
11/05/2026: DLTR (5-star) is a STRONG-BUY. BUY for 11 days. Simulated Profits (5.27%). Updated daily EoD!
Dollar Tree is a prominent US discount retailer operating under two primary banners that provide value-driven merchandise. While the company benefits from a massive store footprint and high brand awareness, it faces ongoing challenges related to the complex integration of the Family Dollar segment and intense competition from larger retail giants. The primary investment story rests on the company's ability to successfully execute its multi-price point strategy and store renovation initiatives to improve margins. Investors should be aware of risks including execution complexity, macro-driven consumer weakness, and competitive pressure. The stock may suit value-oriented investors willing to monitor the progress of management’s current turnaround and efficiency initiatives.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | Growth is currently constrained by operational restructuring and competitive pressures. |
| Momentum investor | Weak fit | The stock has faced significant price volatility and currently lacks a strong upward technical trend. |
| Value investor | Strong fit | The valuation may look attractive to those betting on a successful turnaround of the Family Dollar segment. |
| Dividend investor | Mixed fit | Dividend reliability depends on the company's ability to stabilize cash flows amid ongoing investments. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | Operational execution risk and market sensitivity make this a higher-risk retail investment. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | High | The stock is highly reactive to earnings misses and changes in consumer spending data. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | Future valuation depends heavily on the successful execution of the multi-price point rollout. |
| Competition risk (discount retail) | High | Aggressive pricing from Walmart and Dollar General limits pricing power. |
| Business quality | Medium | While the store network is strong, the brand integration of Family Dollar has been a long-term challenge. |
| Dividend income | Medium | Capital allocation is currently prioritized toward debt reduction and store upgrades. |
| Execution risk | High | Managing two distinct retail banners requires precise operational control that has been inconsistent. |
Price Behavior
Strong Uptrend
The stock has maintained a strong upward price trend across the last three quarters.
Moderately Choppy
The stock has experienced noticeable price swings while retaining some directional structure.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 70.2% | Avg. Invested days 49 | Today’s Advisory Strong Buy |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  4.0 | Stock Returns Performance  4.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 11/05/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Large-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 27.58B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 17.91 | 1Y Target Price 134.96 |
Price to earnings Ratio 17.91 | 1Y Target Price 134.96 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 2.1M shares | Beta 0.69 | 52 Weeks Range 85.88 - 148.53 | Updated Date 11/04/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 85.88 - 148.53 | Updated Date 11/04/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) - | Basic EPS (TTM) 8.21 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Dollar Tree Segment | Retail sales of items at fixed $1.25 and multi-price points. | This is the core, high-margin engine of the company. |
| Family Dollar Segment | Retail sales of groceries, consumables, and general merchandise. | This segment is focused on neighborhood convenience and competitive pricing. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Valuation
Trailing PE 17.91 | Forward PE 17.42 | Enterprise Value 31.77B | Price to Sales(TTM) 1.37 |
Enterprise Value 31.77B | Price to Sales(TTM) 1.37 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 1.58 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 10.91 | Shares Outstanding 187.63M | Shares Floating 177.46M |
Shares Outstanding 187.63M | Shares Floating 177.46M | ||
Percent Insiders 0.16 | Percent Institutions 107.73 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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