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Upturn AI Summary - About
Costco Wholesale Corp(COST)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for COST
10/23/2026: COST (2-star) has a low Upturn Star Rating. Not recommended to BUY.
Costco Wholesale Corp is a prominent membership-based warehouse retailer known for its disciplined low-margin, high-volume business model. The company's primary strength lies in its high membership renewal rates and the successful Kirkland Signature private label, which drive consistent recurring revenue and customer loyalty. Growth is currently supported by ongoing international expansion and digital enhancements to its fulfillment capabilities. Key risks include intense competitive pressure from major players like Walmart and Amazon, along with potential margin compression from rising labor costs. Costco represents a potential fit for long-term growth and dividend-oriented investors who value a resilient business model with a history of stability.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Strong fit | Costco has shown consistent, long-term revenue and earnings growth through disciplined expansion. |
| Momentum investor | Strong fit while signal remains positive | The stock frequently exhibits sustained price trends supported by operational excellence. |
| Value investor | Mixed fit | The stock often trades at a premium valuation, which may limit upside for strictly valuation-focused investors. |
| Dividend investor | Strong fit | The company provides a reliable quarterly dividend and has a history of paying substantial special dividends. |
| Low-risk investor | Strong fit | The company's defensive business model and high member loyalty provide a level of stability during economic volatility. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | Medium | While generally stable, the stock price can experience fluctuations based on broader market trends and economic data. |
| Valuation risk | Medium / high | A high price-to-earnings multiple means investors are paying for high growth expectations. |
| Competition risk (Retail) | Medium | Intense competition from major players like Walmart and Amazon could pressure margins or growth. |
| Business quality | Strong | The company has a highly resilient business model with strong cash flow and high customer retention. |
| Dividend income | Low | The regular dividend yield is generally low compared to high-yield dividend stocks. |
| Execution risk | Low | The company has a proven track record of successfully executing its warehouse expansion strategy. |
Price Behavior
Downtrend
The stock has experienced a sustained decline in price over recent periods.
Smooth
The stock has moved along a generally orderly path with only modest fluctuations.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 28.04% | Avg. Invested days 52 | Today’s Advisory Consider higher Upturn Star rating |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  4.0 | Stock Returns Performance  3.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/23/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Large-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 444.60B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 49.04 | 1Y Target Price 1067.59 |
Price to earnings Ratio 49.04 | 1Y Target Price 1067.59 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 2.3M shares | Beta 0.87 | 52 Weeks Range 840.35 - 1094.76 | Updated Date 10/24/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 840.35 - 1094.76 | Updated Date 10/24/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 0.54% | Basic EPS (TTM) 20.46 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Membership Fees | Annual fees paid by individual and business members for access to clubs. | This is high-margin recurring revenue that funds the company's operating costs. |
| Merchandise Sales | Sales of food, electronics, apparel, and hardlines across physical warehouses and online. | This volume-driven business provides the bulk of total revenue but operates at very thin margins. |
| Ancillary Services | Gas stations, pharmacy, travel, and food courts. | These services act as foot-traffic drivers that keep members engaged and loyal to the club. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Earnings Date
Report Date 2026-09-24 | When After Market | Estimate 6.48 | Actual 6.6 |
Profitability
Profit Margin 3.04% | Operating Margin (TTM) 3.79% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 8.66% | Return on Equity (TTM) 28.4% |
Valuation
Trailing PE 49.04 | Forward PE 39.84 | Enterprise Value 384.58B | Price to Sales(TTM) 1.47 |
Enterprise Value 384.58B | Price to Sales(TTM) 1.47 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 1.31 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 26.59 | Shares Outstanding 443.13M | Shares Floating 442.25M |
Shares Outstanding 443.13M | Shares Floating 442.25M | ||
Percent Insiders 0.08 | Percent Institutions 74.36 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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