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Upturn AI Summary - About
Costco Wholesale Corp(COST)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for COST
10/09/2026: COST (2-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
Costco Wholesale Corp is a prominent membership-based warehouse club operator, recognized for its high-volume, low-margin business model and steady member loyalty. Its primary strength lies in its recurring membership fees and the successful Kirkland Signature private-label brand, which support consistent financial performance. The company's main growth narrative centers on international expansion and gradual digital integration. However, Costco faces risks from intense retail competition, potential supply chain disruptions, and the challenge of scaling e-commerce. The stock is generally well-suited for long-term investors seeking defensive stability and consistent dividends, though potential investors should monitor valuation levels closely given its historical premium pricing compared to other retailers.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Strong fit | Costco delivers consistent, reliable top-line and bottom-line growth through member expansion. |
| Momentum investor | Strong fit while signal remains positive | The stock often exhibits sustained price trends supported by strong operational performance. |
| Value investor | Mixed fit | The stock frequently trades at a premium valuation due to its high-quality business model. |
| Dividend investor | Strong fit | Reliable quarterly dividends and a track record of special dividends make it attractive for income-oriented investors. |
| Low-risk investor | Strong fit | The company's defensive business model and steady cash flow provide lower volatility relative to the broader retail sector. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | Medium | While defensive, the stock is subject to market-wide fluctuations and sector-specific sensitivity. |
| Valuation risk | Medium / high | Investors often pay a premium, which can limit short-term upside if growth expectations are not met. |
| Competition risk (Digital and Omnichannel) | Medium | The rise of e-commerce competitors like Amazon threatens traditional brick-and-mortar traffic. |
| Business quality | Strong | The membership model creates a high barrier to entry and deep customer loyalty. |
| Dividend income | Low | The yield is typically lower than higher-dividend utility or real estate stocks, though reliable. |
| Execution risk | Low | Costco has a highly repeatable and proven operational playbook for store growth. |
Price Behavior
Downtrend
The stock has experienced a sustained decline in price over recent periods.
Smooth
The stock has moved along a generally orderly path with only modest fluctuations.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 26.76% | Avg. Invested days 60 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  3.0 | Stock Returns Performance  3.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/09/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Large-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 420.05B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 45.66 | 1Y Target Price 1057.94 |
Price to earnings Ratio 45.66 | 1Y Target Price 1057.94 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 2.2M shares | Beta 0.87 | 52 Weeks Range 840.35 - 1094.76 | Updated Date 10/09/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 840.35 - 1094.76 | Updated Date 10/09/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 0.59% | Basic EPS (TTM) 20.76 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Membership Fees | Annual fees paid by millions of individual and business members for shopping access. | This high-margin revenue stream provides a predictable foundation for operations. |
| Merchandise Sales | Revenue from the sale of food, sundries, hardlines, and softlines in warehouses. | This segment drives high-volume traffic but operates on thin margins. |
| Ancillary Services | Gas stations, optical centers, pharmacies, and travel services. | These services increase member visits and improve retention rates. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Earnings Date
Report Date 2026-09-24 | When After Market | Estimate 6.48 | Actual 6.6 |
Profitability
Profit Margin 3.04% | Operating Margin (TTM) 3.79% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 8.66% | Return on Equity (TTM) 28.4% |
Valuation
Trailing PE 45.66 | Forward PE 40.32 | Enterprise Value 389.36B | Price to Sales(TTM) 1.39 |
Enterprise Value 389.36B | Price to Sales(TTM) 1.39 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 1.33 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 26.92 | Shares Outstanding 443.13M | Shares Floating 442.24M |
Shares Outstanding 443.13M | Shares Floating 442.24M | ||
Percent Insiders 0.08 | Percent Institutions 74.45 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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