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Upturn AI Summary - About
Ellington Residential Mortgage(EARN)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for EARN
11/12/2026: EARN (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
Ellington Residential Mortgage REIT (EARN) is a specialized real estate investment trust focused on managing a portfolio of Agency and non-Agency residential mortgage-backed securities. The company leverages the expertise of Ellington Management Group to navigate complex credit markets, aiming to provide consistent monthly dividend income for investors. While the company's focus on credit-sensitive assets provides significant yield potential, it also exposes investors to risks associated with interest rate volatility and credit defaults. EARN is generally best suited for income-oriented investors comfortable with the risks inherent in leveraged mortgage REITs. Investors should monitor interest rate trends and the company’s book value performance closely.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Weak fit | The company is structured as a yield-focused income vehicle rather than a capital-appreciating growth stock. |
| Momentum investor | Mixed fit | Momentum may be found during specific yield-curve shifts, but this is highly conditional on macro conditions. |
| Value investor | Mixed fit | Valuation relative to book value can provide value opportunities, though book value is inherently volatile. |
| Dividend investor | Strong fit | The company's primary objective is distributing consistent monthly income to shareholders. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | Mortgage REITs carry significant leverage and interest rate risk, making them unsuitable for low-risk portfolios. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | High | The stock price fluctuates significantly with interest rate changes and mortgage market sentiment. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | Investors must monitor if the stock trades at a premium or discount to its underlying book value. |
| Competition risk (mREIT sector) | Medium / high | Competition for high-yield mortgage assets can compress profit margins. |
| Business quality | Medium | Success depends on the external manager's ability to hedge and select high-quality mortgage debt. |
| Dividend income | Medium / high | Dividends can be volatile and are subject to the company's ability to generate sufficient core earnings. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Improper hedging of interest rate exposure can result in significant capital losses. |
Price Behavior
Downtrend
The stock has experienced a sustained decline in price over recent periods.
Moderately Choppy
The stock has experienced noticeable price swings while retaining some directional structure.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -10.85% | Avg. Invested days 50 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  2.0 | Stock Returns Performance  1.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 11/12/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Sector & Industry Intelligence
Sector snapshot as of 2026-11-10
Sector
Financial Services
- Signal
- Constructive
- Sentiment
- Bullish
- Market state
- Bullish
- Momentum
- BUY Breadth Improving
- BUY participation
- 47.5%
- Active BUY / eligible
- 56 / 118
- 22-session BUY-count change
- +41
More qualifying stocks are receiving or maintaining BUY advisories, indicating improving market participation.
Industry
Asset Management
- BUY participation
- 44.4%
- Active BUY / eligible
- 8 / 18
- 22-session BUY-count change
- +2
The sector signal does not change this stock’s BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory.
Key Highlights
Company Size Small-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 128.12M USD | Price to earnings Ratio - | 1Y Target Price 4.5 |
Price to earnings Ratio - | 1Y Target Price 4.5 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 493.2K shares | Beta 1.29 | 52 Weeks Range 3.13 - 4.79 | Updated Date 11/12/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 3.13 - 4.79 | Updated Date 11/12/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 28.83% | Basic EPS (TTM) -1.03 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Net Interest Margin | The spread between interest income earned on mortgage assets and the cost of borrowing to finance those assets. | The company makes money by borrowing at short-term rates to buy higher-yielding mortgage securities. |
Earnings Date
Report Date 2026-11-19 | When After Market | Estimate 0.19 | Actual - |
Profitability
Profit Margin -81.2% | Operating Margin (TTM) 64.02% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) -6.64% | Return on Equity (TTM) -20.32% |
Valuation
Trailing PE - | Forward PE 5.83 | Enterprise Value 306.73M | Price to Sales(TTM) 3.08 |
Enterprise Value 306.73M | Price to Sales(TTM) 3.08 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 7.88 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA - | Shares Outstanding 39.30M | Shares Floating 37.06M |
Shares Outstanding 39.30M | Shares Floating 37.06M | ||
Percent Insiders 1.36 | Percent Institutions 4.21 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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