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Upturn AI Summary - About
Elastic NV(ESTC)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for ESTC
10/13/2026: ESTC (2-star) has a low Upturn Star Rating. Not recommended to BUY.
Elastic NV is an infrastructure software company that provides a powerful, search-driven platform used for observability, cybersecurity, and enterprise search. Its main strength lies in its widely-adopted open-source foundation, which has allowed it to build a sticky enterprise customer base. The primary growth opportunity involves scaling its Elastic Cloud managed services and integrating Generative AI capabilities into its platform. However, the company faces significant competition from large cloud hyperscalers and specialized software providers, and has yet to consistently produce GAAP profitability. Elastic is best suited for growth-oriented investors who can tolerate price volatility while monitoring the company's execution against major infrastructure competitors.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Strong fit | Elastic is a high-growth software company expanding its footprint in critical observability and security markets. |
| Momentum investor | Mixed fit | Momentum suitability depends on positive price trends and sustained revenue beat signals. |
| Value investor | Weak fit | Elastic is currently valued on growth and future platform potential rather than earnings multiples. |
| Dividend investor | Weak fit | The company does not pay dividends and prioritizes reinvestment for growth. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | The stock exhibits high price volatility common with high-growth technology companies. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | High | High-growth software stocks often experience sharp price movements based on quarterly earnings results. |
| Valuation risk | Medium / high | Investors pay a premium for growth, making the stock sensitive to changes in growth expectations or interest rates. |
| Competition risk (AI and Cloud Infrastructure) | High | Intense competition from cloud providers and integrated AI platforms could pressure market share. |
| Business quality | Medium | Elastic has a strong recurring revenue base but continues to balance growth with achieving consistent profitability. |
| Dividend income | Low / none | The company does not provide income through dividends. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Success depends on effectively scaling the cloud business while competing against hyperscalers. |
Price Behavior
Strong Uptrend
The stock has maintained a strong upward price trend across the last three quarters.
Choppy
The stock has experienced frequent reversals and pronounced short-term price swings.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -27.09% | Avg. Invested days 27 | Today’s Advisory Consider higher Upturn Star rating |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  2.0 | Stock Returns Performance  1.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/13/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Large-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 10.03B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 27.29 | 1Y Target Price 111.52 |
Price to earnings Ratio 27.29 | 1Y Target Price 111.52 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 2.0M shares | Beta 1.04 | 52 Weeks Range 42.05 - 108.00 | Updated Date 10/13/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 42.05 - 108.00 | Updated Date 10/13/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) - | Basic EPS (TTM) 3.5 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Elastic Cloud | Subscription revenue from managed service deployments on public clouds. | This is the primary growth engine representing recurring revenue from cloud usage. |
| Self-Managed Subscriptions | Licensing fees for customers running Elastic software on their own infrastructure. | This segment provides stable revenue from existing long-term enterprise customers. |
| Geography | Global sales across Americas, EMEA, and APAC regions. | Elastic has a broad international footprint, reducing reliance on any single regional economy. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Valuation
Trailing PE 27.29 | Forward PE 27.4 | Enterprise Value 8.72B | Price to Sales(TTM) 5.56 |
Enterprise Value 8.72B | Price to Sales(TTM) 5.56 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 4.84 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 473.87 | Shares Outstanding 104.99M | Shares Floating 88.19M |
Shares Outstanding 104.99M | Shares Floating 88.19M | ||
Percent Insiders 11.84 | Percent Institutions 89.59 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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