Forward Air Corporation logo

Forward Air Corporation(FWRD)

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EXPLORE ADVISORIES AND THEIR HISTORY
QUALITY SIGNAL RECENCY
1-STAR RATING
Consider higher Upturn Star rating
BUY for 2 days
PROFIT SINCE LAST BUY
+3.97% ▲
LAST CLOSE
$18.32
11/02/2026
(24-hour delay)

Advisory History & Simulated Performance *

*as per simulation (see disclosures)
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  • 1Y
  • 1M
  • 1W
  • BUY Advisory
  • SELL Advisory (Profit)
  • SELL Advisory (Loss)
  • Profit
  • Loss
  • PASS (Skip)
Upturn Stock price based on last close iconStock price based on last close
Simulated performance—not actual client returns. Excludes advisory subscription fees, trading commissions, and taxes, which would reduce returns. Results depend on calculation assumptions and do not guarantee future outcomes. See Disclosures for full methodology, assumptions, and limitations.

Advisory Performance History (Simulated)Advisory Performance History info

Simulated performance—not actual client returns. Excludes advisory subscription fees, trading commissions, and taxes, which would reduce returns. Results depend on calculation assumptions and do not guarantee future outcomes. See Disclosures for full methodology, assumptions, and limitations.

Upturn Advisory & Investor View for FWRD

11/02/2026: FWRD (1-star) has a low Upturn Star Rating. Not recommended to BUY.

Forward Air Corporation is a publicly traded logistics company specializing in time-definite, expedited ground transportation and premium freight services. The company is recognized for its asset-light model and historically strong record of handling high-value freight with minimal damage. Its current primary growth story centers on realizing synergies following the large-scale acquisition of Omni Logistics to broaden its market reach. However, the company faces significant execution risks, including the challenge of integrating complex operations amid a cyclical freight environment. Investors should monitor progress on margin recovery and debt management, as the stock may suit those willing to navigate high volatility for potential turnaround gains.

How to Read the Upturn Advisory

The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.

Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.

Investor Fit

Investor styleFitWhy
Growth investorMixed fitThe company is currently in a restructuring and integration phase, making growth trajectories less predictable.
Momentum investorWeak fitRecent volatility and integration challenges have clouded short-term momentum signals.
Value investorMixed fitThe stock may present value opportunities if the current integration successfully drives margin expansion.
Dividend investorMixed fitWhile dividends are paid, the primary focus is currently on capital deployment for corporate integration.
Low-risk investorWeak fitHigh sensitivity to macroeconomic cycles and integration risks create significant volatility for low-risk profiles.

Risk Profile

Risk factorLevelWhy it matters
Price volatilityHighThe stock is highly sensitive to freight volume cycles and news regarding operational integration.
Valuation riskMediumMarket expectations for synergy realization create potential for valuation adjustments.
Competition risk (logistics)HighLarge, well-capitalized competitors pose a constant threat to market share in the LTL space.
Business qualityMediumThe business model is solid but currently undergoing significant transformational pressure.
Dividend incomeMediumDividends are subject to the company's capital allocation priorities during the integration phase.
Execution riskHighSuccessfully integrating large acquisitions like Omni is critical to long-term financial performance.

Price Behavior

Steep Decline
PRICE PATH

Steep Decline

The stock price has dropped sharply with strong downward pressure.

Extreme Price Shocks
PRICE STABILITY

Extreme Price Shocks

The stock has experienced exceptionally large and disruptive price movements during the period.

Analysis of Past Performance

Type Stock
Historic Profit 27.43%
Avg. Invested days 34
Today’s Advisory Consider higher Upturn Star rating
Upturn Advisory Rating upturn star rating icon
Upturn Advisory Performance Upturn Advisory Performance icon 3.0
Stock Returns Performance Upturn Returns Performance icon 3.0
Upturn Profits based on simulation icon Profits based on simulation
Upturn last close icon Last Close 11/02/2026

Upturn Scorecard

Upturn Star Rating

★★★★★
FWRD receives a 3-star rating, supported by solid company fundamentals, and solid analyst coverage. The rating is constrained by weak unit economics, and weak price momentum.

Company Fundamentals

★★★★★
FWRD has solid overall fundamentals (4 stars), with moderate financial health, solid growth momentum, and solid ownership. In FY2025 versus FY2024, strong earnings growth (+86.8%) is partially offset by soft cash generation (FCF margin 0.6%), moderate revenue growth (+0.8%), weak profitability (net margin -4.3%).

Financial Health Rating

★★★★★
FWRD's financial health is supported by moderate cash strength, including free-cash-flow generation (0.6% of revenue). Profitability is soft (2 stars), which helps explain the 3-star overall score.

Growth Momentum Score

★★★★★
Free-cash-flow growth is FWRD's strongest growth driver at +113.6% FY2025 versus FY2024 (strong, 5 stars). By comparison, earnings growth (+86.8%, strong) is also strong, while revenue growth (+0.8%, moderate) holds the profile back, so recent growth is not broad-based across the business.

Ownership

★★★★★
Institutional ownership is 97.7% and approximately 80.8% of outstanding shares are publicly tradable, supporting liquidity and institutional participation. Insider ownership of 1.86% provides only moderate management-shareholder alignment.

Top 5 Institutional Investors

Clearlake Capital Group LP 11.32%
BlackRock Inc 8.21%
FMR Inc 5.95%
Bracebridge Capital, LLC 4.16%
Vanguard Capital Management, LLC 3.46%

Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)

★★★★★
FWRD generates approximately $205 of gross profit, $15 of operating income, and $6 of free cash flow for every $1,000 of revenue. Based on FY2025 results. Weak margins explain the 1-star rating, with weak cash conversion and weak capital efficiency.

Economic Dimensions

★★★★★
Effective Tax Rate: 3.72%

Quantitative Style Profile

★★★★★
FWRD has a liquid profile. Weak momentum is the primary drawback, while elevated volatility.

Style Classification

Quality Focused

Value-OrientedHigh VolatilitySmall / Mid Cap RiskShort Squeeze RiskHighly Liquid / Institution-Friendly

Key Highlights

Company Size Small-Cap Stock
Market Capitalization 595.22M USD
Price to earnings Ratio -
1Y Target Price 26
Price to earnings Ratio -
1Y Target Price 26
Volume (30-day avg) 414.4K shares
Beta 1.41
52 Weeks Range 7.86 - 31.18
Updated Date 11/01/2026
52 Weeks Range 7.86 - 31.18
Updated Date 11/01/2026
Dividends yield (FY) -
Basic EPS (TTM) -8.92

How Company Makes Money

Business areaWhat it includesRetail investor read
Expedited FreightAir freight forwarding and ground transportation services.The primary core of the business focused on moving high-priority goods.
Intermodal & Final MileContainer transport and last-step delivery to end consumers.Service areas that extend the company's reach into local delivery markets.

Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth

Revenue by Products

Product revenue - Year on Year

Revenue by Geography

Geography revenue - Year on Year

Earnings Date

Report Date 2026-11-09
When After Market
Estimate 0.2
Actual -

Profitability

Profit Margin -11.37%
Operating Margin (TTM) 6.34%

Management Effectiveness

Return on Assets (TTM) 3.06%
Return on Equity (TTM) -735.72%

Valuation

Trailing PE -
Forward PE 19.92
Enterprise Value 2.57B
Price to Sales(TTM) 0.24
Enterprise Value 2.57B
Price to Sales(TTM) 0.24
Enterprise Value to Revenue 1.02
Enterprise Value to EBITDA 13.24
Shares Outstanding 33.78M
Shares Floating 27.31M
Shares Outstanding 33.78M
Shares Floating 27.31M
Percent Insiders 1.86
Percent Institutions 97.66

Financial Metrics

🧭 Investment Snapshot

Total Revenue (Scale)

Information icon Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.

Net Income (Profit)

Information icon Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.

Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)

Information icon Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.

📈 Growth & Strength

Operating Income (Core Profit)

Information icon Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.

EBITDA (Cash Earnings)

Information icon Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.

Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)

Information icon Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.

🛡️ Financial Safety

Cash (Liquidity Buffer)

Information icon Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.

Total Debt (Leverage Risk)

Information icon Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.

Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)

Information icon Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.

🧱 Balance Sheet Strength

Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)

Information icon Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.

Total Assets (Asset Base)

Information icon The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.

Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)

Information icon Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.

⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors

Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)

Information icon Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.

Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)

Information icon Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.

Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)

Information icon Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.

Form CRS provides a relationship summary of our automated advisory services, flat subscription fees, and conflicts of interest. Form ADV Part 2A brochure contains complete details on services, billing, and disclosures. If any summary differs from our current regulatory filings, the filed Form ADV controls.