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Grocery Outlet Holding Corp (GO)

Upturn stock ratingUpturn stock rating
$12.42
Last Close (24-hour delay)
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PASS
  • BUY Advisory
  • SELL Advisory (Profit)​
  • SELL Advisory (Loss)​
  • Profit
  • Loss
  • Pass (Skip investing)
Upturn Stock infoUpturn Stock info Stock price based on last close
*as per simulation
(see disclosures)
Time period over
  • ALL
  • YEAR
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Upturn Advisory Summary

06/30/2025: GO (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.

Upturn Star Rating

ratingratingratingratingrating

Not Recommended Performance

These Stocks/ETFs, based on Upturn Advisory, consistently fall short of market performance, signaling caution before investing.

Number of Analysts

rating

14 Analysts rated it

These Stocks/ETFs, based on Upturn Advisory, frequently surpass the market, reflecting reliable and trustworthy advice.

Year Target Price $15.62

Year Target Price $15.62

Analyst’s Price TargetsFor last 52 week
$15.62Target price
Low$10.26
Current$12.42
high$22.29

Analysis of Past Performance

Type Stock
Historic Profit -41.21%
Avg. Invested days 24
Today’s Advisory PASS
Upturn Star Rating Upturn stock ratingUpturn stock rating
Upturn Advisory Performance Upturn Advisory Performance 1.0
Stock Returns Performance Upturn Returns Performance 1.0
Upturn Profits based on simulationUpturn Profits based on simulation Profits based on simulation
Upturn Profits based on simulationUpturn Profits based on simulation Last Close 06/30/2025

Key Highlights

Company Size Small-Cap Stock
Market Capitalization 1.24B USD
Price to earnings Ratio 74.29
1Y Target Price 15.62
Price to earnings Ratio 74.29
1Y Target Price 15.62
Volume (30-day avg) 14
Beta 0.32
52 Weeks Range 10.26 - 22.29
Updated Date 06/30/2025
52 Weeks Range 10.26 - 22.29
Updated Date 06/30/2025
Dividends yield (FY) -
Basic EPS (TTM) 0.17

Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth

Revenue by Products

Product revenue - Year on Year

Earnings Date

Report Date -
When -
Estimate -
Actual -

Profitability

Profit Margin 0.39%
Operating Margin (TTM) 1.01%

Management Effectiveness

Return on Assets (TTM) 2.27%
Return on Equity (TTM) 1.43%

Valuation

Trailing PE 74.29
Forward PE 16.47
Enterprise Value 2929571762
Price to Sales(TTM) 0.28
Enterprise Value 2929571762
Price to Sales(TTM) 0.28
Enterprise Value to Revenue 0.66
Enterprise Value to EBITDA 16.93
Shares Outstanding 98034600
Shares Floating 93644567
Shares Outstanding 98034600
Shares Floating 93644567
Percent Insiders 4.64
Percent Institutions 114.94

Analyst Ratings

Rating 4
Target Price 15.62
Buy -
Strong Buy 2
Buy -
Strong Buy 2
Hold 10
Sell 1
Strong Sell 1
Strong Sell 1

ai summary icon Upturn AI SWOT

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp

stock logo

Company Overview

overview logo History and Background

Grocery Outlet was founded in 1946 as Cannery Sales, selling military surplus. It evolved to selling discounted groceries, rebranded as Grocery Outlet in 1971, and went public as Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. in 2019 (GO).

business area logo Core Business Areas

  • Grocery Retail: The company operates a network of independently operated stores that offer deeply discounted, name-brand groceries and other products.

leadership logo Leadership and Structure

The CEO is RJ Sheedy. The company operates with a hybrid model of corporate-owned distribution centers and independently operated stores.

Top Products and Market Share

overview logo Key Offerings

  • Grocery Items: Offers a wide selection of deeply discounted grocery items including produce, meat, dairy, packaged goods, and frozen foods. Competitors include traditional grocery chains like Kroger and Safeway and discounters like Aldi and Lidl. Market share is not readily available for this specific category within Grocery Outlet's overall business. But a large portion of the company revenue comes from these products
  • Household Products: Includes household cleaning supplies, personal care items, and other non-food products. Competitors in this space are similar to groceries, including retailers like Walmart and Target. Market share is not readily available but, like groceries, a large portion of revenue is tied to the product

Market Dynamics

industry overview logo Industry Overview

The grocery industry is highly competitive, with increasing pressure from online retailers and discount chains. Consumers are increasingly value-conscious.

Positioning

Grocery Outlet is positioned as a deep-discount retailer, offering brand-name products at significantly lower prices than traditional grocery stores. Its competitive advantage lies in its opportunistic buying model and independent operator network.

Total Addressable Market (TAM)

The US grocery market is estimated at over $1 trillion. Grocery Outlet is positioned to capture a growing share of the value-oriented segment of this market.

Upturn SWOT Analysis

Strengths

  • Deep discount pricing
  • Opportunistic sourcing
  • Independent operator model
  • Strong brand loyalty in specific markets
  • Flexible store format

Weaknesses

  • Inconsistent product availability
  • Limited brand awareness nationally
  • Reliance on opportunistic buying
  • Smaller store footprint compared to traditional supermarkets

Opportunities

  • Expansion into new geographic markets
  • Increased demand for value-priced groceries
  • Growing online presence
  • Strategic partnerships with suppliers
  • Increased focus on private label brands

Threats

  • Increased competition from discount retailers
  • Fluctuations in food prices
  • Changes in consumer preferences
  • Supply chain disruptions
  • Economic downturn

Competitors and Market Share

competitor logo Key Competitors

  • KR
  • SFM
  • DG
  • DLTR
  • WMT

Competitive Landscape

Grocery Outlet differentiates itself through deep discounts and opportunistic buying, appealing to budget-conscious consumers. Its challenges lie in competing with larger retailers with greater scale and brand recognition.

Growth Trajectory and Initiatives

Historical Growth: Grocery Outlet has experienced steady growth in revenue and store count over the past several years, driven by its deep-discount value proposition.

Future Projections: Future growth is projected to be driven by store expansion, increased same-store sales, and growing brand awareness.

Recent Initiatives: Recent initiatives include expanding its store network, improving its supply chain, and enhancing its online presence.

Summary

Grocery Outlet is a deep-discount grocery retailer with a unique business model that allows it to offer name-brand products at significantly lower prices. Its opportunistic buying and independent operator network are key strengths. However, its limited brand awareness and inconsistent product availability remain challenges. Future growth depends on successful store expansion and adaptation to changing consumer preferences.

Peer Comparison

Sources and Disclaimers

Data Sources:

  • Company Website
  • Analyst Reports
  • Industry Publications
  • SEC Filings
  • Market Research Reports

Disclaimers:

This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Market data and financial figures are estimates and may not be precise. Investment decisions should be based on individual research and consultation with a qualified financial advisor.

Upturn AI SummarizationUpturn AI Summarization AI Summarization is directionally correct and might not be accurate.

Upturn AI SummarizationUpturn AI Summarization Summarized information shown could be a few years old and not current.

Upturn AI SummarizationUpturn AI Summarization Fundamental Rating based on AI could be based on old data.

Upturn AI SummarizationUpturn AI Summarization AI-generated summaries may have inaccuracies (hallucinations). Please verify the information before taking action.

About Grocery Outlet Holding Corp

Exchange NASDAQ
Headquaters Emeryville, CA, United States
IPO Launch date 2019-06-20
President, CEO & Director Mr. Jason Potter
Sector Consumer Defensive
Industry Grocery Stores
Full time employees 1692
Full time employees 1692

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. is a retailer of consumables and fresh products sold through independently operated stores in the United States. The company offers a variety of perishable department, including dairy and deli, produce and floral, and fresh meat and seafood. It also offers non-perishable department, such as non-perishable grocery, general merchandise, health and beauty care, frozen foods, and beer and wine. As of December 28, 2024, the company had 533 stores across California, Washington, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Idaho, Maryland, Nevada, North Carolina, New Jersey, Georgia, Ohio, Alabama, Delaware, Kentucky, and Virginia. Founded in 1946, Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. is headquartered in Emeryville, California.