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Grocery Outlet Holding Corp (GO)

Upturn stock ratingUpturn stock rating
$17.99
Last Close (24-hour delay)
Profit since last BUY-2.39%
upturn advisory
Consider higher Upturn Star rating
BUY since 6 days
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Upturn Advisory Summary

08/14/2025: GO (1-star) has a low Upturn Star Rating. Not recommended to BUY.

Upturn Star Rating

rating

Not Recommended Performance

These Stocks/ETFs, based on Upturn Advisory, consistently fall short of market performance, signaling caution before investing.

Number of Analysts

rating

14 Analysts rated it

Moderately tracked stock, growing coverage, gaining market and investor attention.

1 Year Target Price $16.15

1 Year Target Price $16.15

Analysts Price Target For last 52 week
$16.15 Target price
52w Low $10.26
Current$17.99
52w High $21.67

Analysis of Past Performance

Type Stock
Historic Profit -42.62%
Avg. Invested days 22
Today’s Advisory Consider higher Upturn Star rating
Upturn Star Rating Upturn stock ratingUpturn stock rating
Upturn Advisory Performance Upturn Advisory Performance 1.0
Stock Returns Performance Upturn Returns Performance 1.0
Upturn Profits based on simulationUpturn Profits based on simulation Profits based on simulation
Upturn Profits based on simulationUpturn Profits based on simulation Last Close 08/14/2025

Key Highlights

Company Size Small-Cap Stock
Market Capitalization 1.76B USD
Price to earnings Ratio 224.88
1Y Target Price 16.15
Price to earnings Ratio 224.88
1Y Target Price 16.15
Volume (30-day avg) 14
Beta 0.27
52 Weeks Range 10.26 - 21.67
Updated Date 08/15/2025
52 Weeks Range 10.26 - 21.67
Updated Date 08/15/2025
Dividends yield (FY) -
Basic EPS (TTM) 0.08

Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth

Revenue by Products

Product revenue - Year on Year

Earnings Date

Report Date 2025-08-05
When -
Estimate 0.17
Actual 0.23

Profitability

Profit Margin 0.18%
Operating Margin (TTM) 2.03%

Management Effectiveness

Return on Assets (TTM) 2.18%
Return on Equity (TTM) 0.68%

Valuation

Trailing PE 224.88
Forward PE 25.77
Enterprise Value 3471732277
Price to Sales(TTM) 0.39
Enterprise Value 3471732277
Price to Sales(TTM) 0.39
Enterprise Value to Revenue 0.77
Enterprise Value to EBITDA 21.14
Shares Outstanding 98103296
Shares Floating 93733774
Shares Outstanding 98103296
Shares Floating 93733774
Percent Insiders 4.64
Percent Institutions 111.78

ai summary icon Upturn AI SWOT

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp

stock logo

Company Overview

overview logo History and Background

Grocery Outlet was founded in 1946 by Jim Read as a surplus grocery store. It has grown into a chain of independently operated stores offering deeply discounted, name-brand groceries.

business area logo Core Business Areas

  • Discount Grocery Retail: Grocery Outlet operates a network of stores that offer a wide range of discounted groceries, including produce, meat, dairy, packaged goods, and household items. They source products through opportunistic buying, manufacturer overruns, and closeouts.

leadership logo Leadership and Structure

The leadership team is headed by RJ Sheedy as Chief Executive Officer. The organizational structure consists of corporate management providing support and guidance to independently operated stores.

Top Products and Market Share

overview logo Key Offerings

  • Grocery Items: Grocery Outlet offers a wide variety of name-brand grocery items at discounted prices. Competitors are traditional grocery stores like Kroger (KR), Albertsons (ACI), and Walmart (WMT).
  • Produce: Fresh fruits and vegetables, often sourced opportunistically. Competitors are other grocery chains.
  • Meat and Dairy: Meat and dairy products sold at discounted prices. Competitors include traditional grocery stores and discount retailers.
  • Household Items: Various household essentials, offering savings for customers. Competitors are discount retailers such as Dollar General (DG) and Dollar Tree (DLTR).

Market Dynamics

industry overview logo Industry Overview

The grocery industry is highly competitive, with a mix of national chains, regional players, and discounters. Consumers are increasingly price-sensitive, creating opportunities for discount retailers like Grocery Outlet.

Positioning

Grocery Outlet differentiates itself through its 'extreme value' proposition, offering brand-name groceries at significant discounts. They also leverage their unique buying model to secure opportunistic deals.

Total Addressable Market (TAM)

The US grocery market is estimated to be over $800 billion annually. Grocery Outlet's TAM is the discount grocery segment which makes up a significant portion, positioning them well for growth with their differentiated model.

Upturn SWOT Analysis

Strengths

  • Strong Value Proposition
  • Unique Sourcing Model
  • Independent Operator Model
  • Brand Loyalty
  • Expansion Potential

Weaknesses

  • Dependence on Opportunistic Buying
  • Inconsistent Product Availability
  • Limited Geographic Footprint
  • Lower Average Transaction Size
  • Vulnerability to Supply Chain Disruptions

Opportunities

  • Expansion into New Markets
  • Increased Focus on Private Label
  • Enhanced Digital Marketing
  • Partnerships with Local Suppliers
  • Capitalizing on Inflationary Environment

Threats

  • Increased Competition from Discounters
  • Changes in Consumer Spending Habits
  • Economic Downturn
  • Supply Chain Disruptions
  • Inflationary Pressures on Operating Costs

Competitors and Market Share

competitor logo Key Competitors

  • KR
  • ACI
  • DG
  • DLTR

Competitive Landscape

Grocery Outlet competes on price and opportunistic buying. They differentiate themselves through their treasure-hunt experience and independently operated stores. They face competition from traditional supermarkets and discounters.

Growth Trajectory and Initiatives

Historical Growth: Grocery Outlet has demonstrated steady growth by opening new stores and increasing same-store sales.

Future Projections: Analysts expect Grocery Outlet to continue its growth trajectory by expanding its store footprint and enhancing its digital presence.

Recent Initiatives: Recent initiatives include new store openings, investment in technology, and enhanced marketing efforts.

Summary

Grocery Outlet is a unique discount grocery retailer with a strong value proposition and a differentiated sourcing model. The company has demonstrated consistent growth, though it faces challenges such as dependence on opportunistic buying and increased competition. Expansion opportunities exist in new markets and through enhanced digital marketing. Overall, the company's financial health is stable.

Peer Comparison

Sources and Disclaimers

Data Sources:

  • Company SEC Filings (10-K, 10-Q)
  • Company Investor Relations
  • Market Research Reports
  • Financial News Outlets

Disclaimers:

This analysis is based on publicly available information and analyst estimates. It is not financial advice. Market conditions and company performance can change.

Upturn AI SummarizationUpturn AI Summarization AI Summarization is directionally correct and might not be accurate.

Upturn AI SummarizationUpturn AI Summarization Summarized information shown could be a few years old and not current.

Upturn AI SummarizationUpturn AI Summarization Fundamental Rating based on AI could be based on old data.

Upturn AI SummarizationUpturn AI Summarization AI-generated summaries may have inaccuracies (hallucinations). Please verify the information before taking action.

About Grocery Outlet Holding Corp

Exchange NASDAQ
Headquaters Emeryville, CA, United States
IPO Launch date 2019-06-20
President, CEO & Director Mr. Jason Potter
Sector Consumer Defensive
Industry Grocery Stores
Full time employees 1692
Full time employees 1692

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. operates as a retailer of consumables and fresh products sold through independently operated stores in the United States. It offers perishable department products, including dairy and deli, produce and floral, and fresh meat and seafood. The company also provides non-perishable department products, such as non-perishable grocery, general merchandise, health and beauty care, frozen foods, and beer and wine. It operates stores in California, Washington, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Idaho, Maryland, Nevada, North Carolina, New Jersey, Georgia, Ohio, Alabama, Delaware, Kentucky, and Virginia. The company was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Emeryville, California.