- Chart
- Upturn Summary
- Highlights
- Revenue
- Valuation
- About
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp (GO)

- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- Pass (Skip investing)
Stock price based on last close (see disclosures)
- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
Upturn Advisory Summary
01/09/2026: GO (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
1 Year Target Price $14.62
1 Year Target Price $14.62
| 2 | Strong Buy |
| 0 | Buy |
| 10 | Hold |
| 1 | Sell |
| 1 | Strong Sell |
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -46.7% | Avg. Invested days 25 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Star Rating ![]() | Upturn Advisory Performance | Stock Returns Performance |
Key Highlights
Company Size Small-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 937.21M USD | Price to earnings Ratio - | 1Y Target Price 14.62 |
Price to earnings Ratio - | 1Y Target Price 14.62 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 14 | Beta 0.47 | 52 Weeks Range 8.96 - 19.41 | Updated Date 01/9/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 8.96 - 19.41 | Updated Date 01/9/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) - | Basic EPS (TTM) -0.04 |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Earnings Date
Report Date - | When - | Estimate - | Actual - |
Profitability
Profit Margin -0.1% | Operating Margin (TTM) 2.07% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 1.9% | Return on Equity (TTM) -0.37% |
Valuation
Trailing PE - | Forward PE 10.95 | Enterprise Value 2696484546 | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.2 |
Enterprise Value 2696484546 | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.2 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 0.59 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 17.73 | Shares Outstanding 98137230 | Shares Floating 93844708 |
Shares Outstanding 98137230 | Shares Floating 93844708 | ||
Percent Insiders 4.59 | Percent Institutions 127.99 |
Upturn AI SWOT
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp

Company Overview
History and Background
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. was founded in 1971 by James M. Read in Berkeley, California. It began as a single discount grocery store and has since grown into a significant operator of grocery stores offering extreme discounts. Key milestones include its acquisition by private equity firm Hellman & Friedman in 2014 and its subsequent initial public offering (IPO) in June 2019. The company has evolved from a regional discount grocer to a publicly traded entity with a growing store footprint focused on a unique value proposition.
Core Business Areas
- Value Grocery Retail: Grocery Outlet's core business is operating a chain of discount grocery stores that offer a wide variety of branded products at significantly lower prices than traditional grocery stores. They achieve this through opportunistic purchasing, buying overstocked, closeout, or promotional items from manufacturers and distributors.
Leadership and Structure
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. is led by a management team with extensive experience in retail and grocery industries. The organizational structure is focused on store operations, merchandising, supply chain management, and corporate functions. Key leadership roles include CEO, CFO, and various VPs overseeing different operational areas. As a publicly traded company, it is overseen by a Board of Directors.
Top Products and Market Share
Key Offerings
- Description: Offers a broad range of branded packaged goods including cereals, snacks, canned goods, pasta, and baking supplies at deeply discounted prices. Competitors include all major grocery retailers like Walmart, Costco, Kroger, and Aldi, as well as dollar stores.
- Product Category: Packaged Foods
- Description: Features discounted branded dairy items such as milk, cheese, yogurt, and butter, as well as refrigerated prepared meals and desserts. Competitors are similar to packaged foods, with a focus on grocery chains and warehouse clubs.
- Product Category: Dairy & Refrigerated Products
- Description: Provides a selection of frozen meals, vegetables, fruits, and desserts. Competitors include traditional supermarkets, mass merchandisers, and other discount grocers.
- Product Category: Frozen Foods
- Description: Sells a variety of non-alcoholic beverages like sodas, juices, and water, often featuring national brands at low prices. Competitors include all food and beverage retailers.
- Product Category: Beverages
- Description: Offers discounted branded health and beauty products, including toiletries, personal care items, and over-the-counter medications. Competitors include drug stores like CVS and Walgreens, mass merchandisers, and discount retailers.
- Product Category: Health and Beauty Care
- Description: Includes a rotating selection of general merchandise such as home goods, seasonal items, and apparel, all at deep discounts. Competitors include mass merchandisers, dollar stores, and home goods retailers.
- Product Category: General Merchandise
Market Dynamics
Industry Overview
The grocery industry in the US is highly competitive and characterized by shifting consumer preferences towards value, convenience, and health. The discount grocery segment is growing as consumers become more price-sensitive. Key trends include the rise of private label brands, the expansion of e-commerce, and increasing focus on sustainability and local sourcing, though Grocery Outlet's model is primarily focused on opportunistic purchasing of branded goods.
Positioning
Grocery Outlet positions itself as an 'extreme value' retailer, offering national brand name products at 40-70% off traditional supermarket prices. Their unique buying model allows them to source opportunistic inventory, creating a treasure hunt experience for customers. This differentiates them from traditional supermarkets and other discount formats like Aldi and Lidl, which focus more on private label offerings.
Total Addressable Market (TAM)
The US grocery market is a multi-hundred billion dollar industry. While Grocery Outlet operates within the broader grocery sector, its specific TAM is within the discount grocery segment. The company is a significant player in this niche but still represents a relatively small portion of the overall US grocery market, indicating substantial room for expansion.
Upturn SWOT Analysis
Strengths
- Unique opportunistic sourcing model leading to significant price discounts.
- Strong brand recognition within its target market.
- Cultivated 'treasure hunt' shopping experience that drives customer loyalty.
- Experienced management team with deep retail expertise.
- Effective supply chain and inventory management for opportunistic buys.
Weaknesses
- Reliance on opportunistic inventory can lead to inconsistent product availability and variety.
- Limited brand control and potential for inconsistent quality from suppliers.
- Geographic concentration in certain regions, though expanding.
- Lower marketing spend compared to larger national grocers.
Opportunities
- Expansion into new geographic markets.
- Leveraging data analytics to better understand customer preferences and optimize purchasing.
- Potential for private label development to supplement opportunistic buys.
- Growth in consumer demand for value-oriented grocery options.
- Acquisitions of smaller regional grocery chains.
Threats
- Increased competition from traditional grocers, mass merchandisers, and other discount retailers.
- Fluctuations in supplier availability and pricing.
- Economic downturns impacting consumer spending (though can also be an opportunity).
- Changes in consumer preferences away from opportunistic buys towards curated selections.
- Supply chain disruptions and rising transportation costs.
Competitors and Market Share
Key Competitors
- Walmart (WMT)
- Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST)
- Kroger (KR)
- Aldi
- Dollar General (DG)
- Dollar Tree (DLTR)
Competitive Landscape
Grocery Outlet's advantage lies in its extreme value proposition and 'treasure hunt' model, attracting price-sensitive shoppers. However, it faces significant competition from larger players like Walmart, which offer a wider selection and omnichannel capabilities, and from other discount grocers like Aldi and Dollar General, which have strong brand recognition and efficient operations. Grocery Outlet's challenge is to maintain its unique value while scaling its operations to compete effectively.
Growth Trajectory and Initiatives
Historical Growth: Grocery Outlet has a history of consistent, albeit moderate, growth. This has been driven by expanding its store count and improving comparable store sales. The transition to a public company has provided capital to accelerate these growth initiatives.
Future Projections: Analyst projections generally indicate continued revenue growth for Grocery Outlet, driven by store expansion plans and efforts to improve operational efficiencies. Projections for EPS growth are also typically positive, assuming successful execution of growth strategies. Specific percentage projections vary by analyst and timeframe.
Recent Initiatives: Continued store expansion in existing and new markets.,Investments in supply chain and technology to improve efficiency.,Enhanced marketing efforts to drive customer traffic and loyalty.,Focus on optimizing product assortment and category management.
Summary
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. is a unique extreme value grocery retailer with a proven opportunistic buying model that drives significant discounts. Its strengths lie in its customer loyalty, unique shopping experience, and experienced management. However, its reliance on opportunistic inventory can lead to inconsistency. The company faces intense competition from major retailers and other discount grocers. Growth is its primary focus, with expansion plans and operational efficiencies being key to its future success, but it must navigate the challenges of fluctuating supply and maintaining its value proposition in a competitive market.
Similar Stocks
Sources and Disclaimers
Data Sources:
- Company Investor Relations (SEC Filings)
- Financial News Outlets (e.g., Bloomberg, Reuters, Wall Street Journal)
- Market Research Reports (e.g., Statista, Euromonitor)
- Analyst Reports
Disclaimers:
This JSON output is an analysis based on publicly available information and is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Market share data and financial metrics are estimates and subject to change. Investors should conduct their own due diligence before making any investment decisions.
AI Summarization is directionally correct and might not be accurate.
Summarized information shown could be a few years old and not current.
Fundamental Rating based on AI could be based on old data.
AI-generated summaries may have inaccuracies (hallucinations). Please verify the information before taking action.
About Grocery Outlet Holding Corp
Exchange NASDAQ | Headquaters Emeryville, CA, United States | ||
IPO Launch date 2019-06-20 | President, CEO & Director Mr. Jason Potter | ||
Sector Consumer Defensive | Industry Grocery Stores | Full time employees 1692 | Website https://www.groceryoutlet.com |
Full time employees 1692 | Website https://www.groceryoutlet.com | ||
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. operates as a retailer of consumables and fresh products sold through independently operated stores in the United States. It offers perishable department products, including dairy and deli, produce and floral, and fresh meat and seafood. The company also provides non-perishable department products, such as non-perishable grocery, general merchandise, health and beauty care, frozen foods, and beer and wine. It operates stores in California, Washington, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Idaho, Maryland, Nevada, North Carolina, New Jersey, Georgia, Ohio, Alabama, Delaware, Kentucky, and Virginia. The company was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Emeryville, California.

Note: This website is maintained by Upturn Corporation, which is an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Such registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Investing in securities has risks. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. No assurance is provided as to any particular investment return, and you may lose money using our services. You are strongly advised to consult appropriate counsel before making any investments in companies you learn about through our services. You should obtain appropriate legal, tax, investment, accounting, and other advice that takes into account your investment portfolio and overall financial situation. You are solely responsible for conducting due diligence on a potential investment. We do not affect trades for you. You will select your own broker through which to transact. Investments are not FDIC insured, they are not guaranteed, and they may lose value. Please see the Privacy Policy, Terms of Use, and Disclosure for more information.
Home 

