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Grocery Outlet Holding Corp (GO)



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Upturn Advisory Summary
08/14/2025: GO (1-star) has a low Upturn Star Rating. Not recommended to BUY.
1 Year Target Price $16.15
1 Year Target Price $16.15
2 | Strong Buy |
0 | Buy |
10 | Hold |
1 | Sell |
1 | Strong Sell |
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -42.62% | Avg. Invested days 22 | Today’s Advisory Consider higher Upturn Star rating |
Upturn Star Rating ![]() ![]() | Upturn Advisory Performance ![]() | Stock Returns Performance ![]() |
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Key Highlights
Company Size Small-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 1.76B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 224.88 | 1Y Target Price 16.15 |
Price to earnings Ratio 224.88 | 1Y Target Price 16.15 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 14 | Beta 0.27 | 52 Weeks Range 10.26 - 21.67 | Updated Date 08/15/2025 |
52 Weeks Range 10.26 - 21.67 | Updated Date 08/15/2025 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) - | Basic EPS (TTM) 0.08 |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Earnings Date
Report Date 2025-08-05 | When - | Estimate 0.17 | Actual 0.23 |
Profitability
Profit Margin 0.18% | Operating Margin (TTM) 2.03% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 2.18% | Return on Equity (TTM) 0.68% |
Valuation
Trailing PE 224.88 | Forward PE 25.77 | Enterprise Value 3471732277 | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.39 |
Enterprise Value 3471732277 | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.39 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 0.77 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 21.14 | Shares Outstanding 98103296 | Shares Floating 93733774 |
Shares Outstanding 98103296 | Shares Floating 93733774 | ||
Percent Insiders 4.64 | Percent Institutions 111.78 |
Upturn AI SWOT
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp

Company Overview
History and Background
Grocery Outlet was founded in 1946 by Jim Read as a surplus grocery store. It has grown into a chain of independently operated stores offering deeply discounted, name-brand groceries.
Core Business Areas
- Discount Grocery Retail: Grocery Outlet operates a network of stores that offer a wide range of discounted groceries, including produce, meat, dairy, packaged goods, and household items. They source products through opportunistic buying, manufacturer overruns, and closeouts.
Leadership and Structure
The leadership team is headed by RJ Sheedy as Chief Executive Officer. The organizational structure consists of corporate management providing support and guidance to independently operated stores.
Top Products and Market Share
Key Offerings
- Grocery Items: Grocery Outlet offers a wide variety of name-brand grocery items at discounted prices. Competitors are traditional grocery stores like Kroger (KR), Albertsons (ACI), and Walmart (WMT).
- Produce: Fresh fruits and vegetables, often sourced opportunistically. Competitors are other grocery chains.
- Meat and Dairy: Meat and dairy products sold at discounted prices. Competitors include traditional grocery stores and discount retailers.
- Household Items: Various household essentials, offering savings for customers. Competitors are discount retailers such as Dollar General (DG) and Dollar Tree (DLTR).
Market Dynamics
Industry Overview
The grocery industry is highly competitive, with a mix of national chains, regional players, and discounters. Consumers are increasingly price-sensitive, creating opportunities for discount retailers like Grocery Outlet.
Positioning
Grocery Outlet differentiates itself through its 'extreme value' proposition, offering brand-name groceries at significant discounts. They also leverage their unique buying model to secure opportunistic deals.
Total Addressable Market (TAM)
The US grocery market is estimated to be over $800 billion annually. Grocery Outlet's TAM is the discount grocery segment which makes up a significant portion, positioning them well for growth with their differentiated model.
Upturn SWOT Analysis
Strengths
- Strong Value Proposition
- Unique Sourcing Model
- Independent Operator Model
- Brand Loyalty
- Expansion Potential
Weaknesses
- Dependence on Opportunistic Buying
- Inconsistent Product Availability
- Limited Geographic Footprint
- Lower Average Transaction Size
- Vulnerability to Supply Chain Disruptions
Opportunities
- Expansion into New Markets
- Increased Focus on Private Label
- Enhanced Digital Marketing
- Partnerships with Local Suppliers
- Capitalizing on Inflationary Environment
Threats
- Increased Competition from Discounters
- Changes in Consumer Spending Habits
- Economic Downturn
- Supply Chain Disruptions
- Inflationary Pressures on Operating Costs
Competitors and Market Share
Key Competitors
- KR
- ACI
- DG
- DLTR
Competitive Landscape
Grocery Outlet competes on price and opportunistic buying. They differentiate themselves through their treasure-hunt experience and independently operated stores. They face competition from traditional supermarkets and discounters.
Growth Trajectory and Initiatives
Historical Growth: Grocery Outlet has demonstrated steady growth by opening new stores and increasing same-store sales.
Future Projections: Analysts expect Grocery Outlet to continue its growth trajectory by expanding its store footprint and enhancing its digital presence.
Recent Initiatives: Recent initiatives include new store openings, investment in technology, and enhanced marketing efforts.
Summary
Grocery Outlet is a unique discount grocery retailer with a strong value proposition and a differentiated sourcing model. The company has demonstrated consistent growth, though it faces challenges such as dependence on opportunistic buying and increased competition. Expansion opportunities exist in new markets and through enhanced digital marketing. Overall, the company's financial health is stable.
Peer Comparison
Sources and Disclaimers
Data Sources:
- Company SEC Filings (10-K, 10-Q)
- Company Investor Relations
- Market Research Reports
- Financial News Outlets
Disclaimers:
This analysis is based on publicly available information and analyst estimates. It is not financial advice. Market conditions and company performance can change.
AI Summarization is directionally correct and might not be accurate.
Summarized information shown could be a few years old and not current.
Fundamental Rating based on AI could be based on old data.
AI-generated summaries may have inaccuracies (hallucinations). Please verify the information before taking action.
About Grocery Outlet Holding Corp
Exchange NASDAQ | Headquaters Emeryville, CA, United States | ||
IPO Launch date 2019-06-20 | President, CEO & Director Mr. Jason Potter | ||
Sector Consumer Defensive | Industry Grocery Stores | Full time employees 1692 | Website https://www.groceryoutlet.com |
Full time employees 1692 | Website https://www.groceryoutlet.com |
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. operates as a retailer of consumables and fresh products sold through independently operated stores in the United States. It offers perishable department products, including dairy and deli, produce and floral, and fresh meat and seafood. The company also provides non-perishable department products, such as non-perishable grocery, general merchandise, health and beauty care, frozen foods, and beer and wine. It operates stores in California, Washington, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Idaho, Maryland, Nevada, North Carolina, New Jersey, Georgia, Ohio, Alabama, Delaware, Kentucky, and Virginia. The company was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Emeryville, California.

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