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Upturn stock rating
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Grocery Outlet Holding Corp (GO)

Upturn stock rating
$15.43
Last Close (24-hour delay)
upturn advisory
PASS
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  • SELL Advisory (Loss)​
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Upturn Stock info Stock price based on last close
*as per simulation
(see disclosures)
Time period over
  • ALL
  • YEAR
  • MONTH
  • WEEK

Upturn Advisory Summary

10/15/2025: GO (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.

Upturn Star Rating

rating

Not Recommended Performance

These Stocks/ETFs, based on Upturn Advisory, consistently fall short of market performance, signaling caution before investing.

Number of Analysts

rating

14 Analysts rated it

Moderately tracked stock, growing coverage, gaining market and investor attention.

1 Year Target Price $17.15

1 Year Target Price $17.15

Analysts Price Target For last 52 week
$17.15 Target price
52w Low $10.26
Current$15.43
52w High $21.67

Analysis of Past Performance

Type Stock
Historic Profit -46.7%
Avg. Invested days 25
Today’s Advisory PASS
Upturn Star Rating upturn star rating icon
Upturn Advisory Performance Upturn Advisory Performance 1.0
Stock Returns Performance Upturn Returns Performance 1.0
Upturn Profits based on simulation Profits based on simulation
Upturn Profits based on simulation Last Close 10/15/2025

Key Highlights

Company Size Small-Cap Stock
Market Capitalization 1.47B USD
Price to earnings Ratio 187.62
1Y Target Price 17.15
Price to earnings Ratio 187.62
1Y Target Price 17.15
Volume (30-day avg) 14
Beta 0.29
52 Weeks Range 10.26 - 21.67
Updated Date 10/16/2025
52 Weeks Range 10.26 - 21.67
Updated Date 10/16/2025
Dividends yield (FY) -
Basic EPS (TTM) 0.08

Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth

Revenue by Products

Product revenue - Year on Year

Earnings Date

Report Date -
When -
Estimate -
Actual -

Profitability

Profit Margin 0.18%
Operating Margin (TTM) 2.03%

Management Effectiveness

Return on Assets (TTM) 2.18%
Return on Equity (TTM) 0.68%

Valuation

Trailing PE 187.62
Forward PE 17.54
Enterprise Value 3294165313
Price to Sales(TTM) 0.33
Enterprise Value 3294165313
Price to Sales(TTM) 0.33
Enterprise Value to Revenue 0.73
Enterprise Value to EBITDA 20.06
Shares Outstanding 98103295
Shares Floating 93781845
Shares Outstanding 98103295
Shares Floating 93781845
Percent Insiders 4.65
Percent Institutions 125.03

ai summary icon Upturn AI SWOT

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp

stock logo

Company Overview

overview logo History and Background

Grocery Outlet was founded in 1946 as Cannery Sales, selling military surplus. It evolved into a deep-discount retailer, focusing on opportunistic purchasing and offering brand-name products at significantly lower prices. It went public in 2019.

business area logo Core Business Areas

  • Retail Grocery: Grocery Outlet operates a chain of deep-discount grocery stores offering a wide variety of products, including produce, meat, dairy, packaged goods, and household items. Stores are primarily located in California, Washington, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Idaho, Nevada and New Jersey.

leadership logo Leadership and Structure

The company is led by CEO RJ Sheedy and has a board of directors. The operational structure involves a network of independent operators who manage individual stores, creating a unique partnership model.

Top Products and Market Share

overview logo Key Offerings

  • Grocery Items: Wide range of grocery items including produce, meat, dairy, packaged goods, and household items. Market share is difficult to precisely pinpoint due to the deep-discount model, but they compete with traditional grocers. Competitors include traditional grocery chains like Kroger (KR), Albertsons (ACI), and discount retailers like Dollar General (DG) and Aldi.
  • Opportunistic Buys: Grocery Outlet specializes in purchasing overstocked, discontinued, or close-dated items from manufacturers. These items are offered at significant discounts. Competitors are mainly other discount retailers and closeout specialists.

Market Dynamics

industry overview logo Industry Overview

The grocery industry is highly competitive with varying segments catering to different consumer preferences. The deep-discount segment is growing, driven by consumers seeking value and affordability.

Positioning

Grocery Outlet is positioned as a deep-discount grocer, offering brand-name products at significantly lower prices than traditional grocery stores. Its competitive advantage lies in its opportunistic purchasing model and the independent operator structure.

Total Addressable Market (TAM)

The US grocery market is vast, estimated at over $800 billion annually. Grocery Outlet's deep-discount positioning allows it to capture a portion of the market focused on value-conscious consumers. Its expansion plans will allow it to increase market share.

Upturn SWOT Analysis

Strengths

  • Unique opportunistic purchasing model
  • Strong value proposition for consumers
  • Independent operator structure fostering local market knowledge
  • Proven track record of growth
  • Strong brand recognition in existing markets

Weaknesses

  • Reliance on opportunistic buys leading to inconsistent product availability
  • Limited brand awareness outside existing markets
  • Exposure to supply chain disruptions affecting product availability
  • Variable store performance due to independent operator model

Opportunities

  • Expansion into new geographic markets
  • Increased brand awareness through marketing initiatives
  • Enhanced supply chain management to improve product availability
  • Growing demand for value-priced groceries
  • Strategic partnerships with manufacturers

Threats

  • Increased competition from other discount retailers
  • Economic downturn affecting consumer spending
  • Supply chain disruptions impacting product costs and availability
  • Changes in consumer preferences
  • Inflation impacting food prices

Competitors and Market Share

competitor logo Key Competitors

  • KR
  • ACI
  • DG
  • SVU

Competitive Landscape

Grocery Outlet's deep-discount model provides a competitive advantage. However, it faces competition from larger, more established grocery chains and discount retailers. Its unique purchasing strategy differentiates it from its competitors.

Growth Trajectory and Initiatives

Historical Growth: Grocery Outlet has demonstrated strong historical growth by expanding its store network and increasing same-store sales.

Future Projections: Analyst projections suggest continued growth driven by new store openings and same-store sales increases. Projections depend on market conditions and company performance.

Recent Initiatives: Recent initiatives include expanding into new states, enhancing supply chain management, and investing in technology to improve operations.

Summary

Grocery Outlet is a growing deep-discount grocer with a unique opportunistic purchasing model and a strong value proposition. Its expansion into new markets and focus on value-conscious consumers are working well. However, it faces challenges such as supply chain disruptions and increased competition, which could affect their availability of goods and expansion plans.

Peer Comparison

Sources and Disclaimers

Data Sources:

  • Company filings
  • Analyst reports
  • Industry publications

Disclaimers:

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Market conditions and company performance are subject to change.

Upturn AI Summarization AI Summarization is directionally correct and might not be accurate.

Upturn AI Summarization Summarized information shown could be a few years old and not current.

Upturn AI Summarization Fundamental Rating based on AI could be based on old data.

Upturn AI Summarization AI-generated summaries may have inaccuracies (hallucinations). Please verify the information before taking action.

About Grocery Outlet Holding Corp

Exchange NASDAQ
Headquaters Emeryville, CA, United States
IPO Launch date 2019-06-20
President, CEO & Director Mr. Jason Potter
Sector Consumer Defensive
Industry Grocery Stores
Full time employees 1692
Full time employees 1692

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. operates as a retailer of consumables and fresh products sold through independently operated stores in the United States. It offers perishable department products, including dairy and deli, produce and floral, and fresh meat and seafood. The company also provides non-perishable department products, such as non-perishable grocery, general merchandise, health and beauty care, frozen foods, and beer and wine. It operates stores in California, Washington, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Idaho, Maryland, Nevada, North Carolina, New Jersey, Georgia, Ohio, Alabama, Delaware, Kentucky, and Virginia. The company was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Emeryville, California.