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Grocery Outlet Holding Corp (GO)



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Upturn Advisory Summary
06/30/2025: GO (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
Year Target Price $15.62
Year Target Price $15.62
2 | Strong Buy |
0 | Buy |
10 | Hold |
0 | Under performing |
2 | Sell |
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -41.21% | Avg. Invested days 24 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Star Rating ![]() ![]() | Upturn Advisory Performance ![]() | Stock Returns Performance ![]() |
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Key Highlights
Company Size Small-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 1.24B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 74.29 | 1Y Target Price 15.62 |
Price to earnings Ratio 74.29 | 1Y Target Price 15.62 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 14 | Beta 0.32 | 52 Weeks Range 10.26 - 22.29 | Updated Date 06/30/2025 |
52 Weeks Range 10.26 - 22.29 | Updated Date 06/30/2025 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) - | Basic EPS (TTM) 0.17 |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Earnings Date
Report Date - | When - | Estimate - | Actual - |
Profitability
Profit Margin 0.39% | Operating Margin (TTM) 1.01% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 2.27% | Return on Equity (TTM) 1.43% |
Valuation
Trailing PE 74.29 | Forward PE 16.47 | Enterprise Value 2929571762 | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.28 |
Enterprise Value 2929571762 | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.28 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 0.66 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 16.93 | Shares Outstanding 98034600 | Shares Floating 93644567 |
Shares Outstanding 98034600 | Shares Floating 93644567 | ||
Percent Insiders 4.64 | Percent Institutions 114.94 |
Analyst Ratings
Rating 4 | Target Price 15.62 | Buy - | Strong Buy 2 |
Buy - | Strong Buy 2 | ||
Hold 10 | Sell 1 | Strong Sell 1 | |
Strong Sell 1 |
Upturn AI SWOT
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp

Company Overview
History and Background
Grocery Outlet was founded in 1946 as Cannery Sales, selling military surplus. It evolved to selling discounted groceries, rebranded as Grocery Outlet in 1971, and went public as Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. in 2019 (GO).
Core Business Areas
- Grocery Retail: The company operates a network of independently operated stores that offer deeply discounted, name-brand groceries and other products.
Leadership and Structure
The CEO is RJ Sheedy. The company operates with a hybrid model of corporate-owned distribution centers and independently operated stores.
Top Products and Market Share
Key Offerings
- Grocery Items: Offers a wide selection of deeply discounted grocery items including produce, meat, dairy, packaged goods, and frozen foods. Competitors include traditional grocery chains like Kroger and Safeway and discounters like Aldi and Lidl. Market share is not readily available for this specific category within Grocery Outlet's overall business. But a large portion of the company revenue comes from these products
- Household Products: Includes household cleaning supplies, personal care items, and other non-food products. Competitors in this space are similar to groceries, including retailers like Walmart and Target. Market share is not readily available but, like groceries, a large portion of revenue is tied to the product
Market Dynamics
Industry Overview
The grocery industry is highly competitive, with increasing pressure from online retailers and discount chains. Consumers are increasingly value-conscious.
Positioning
Grocery Outlet is positioned as a deep-discount retailer, offering brand-name products at significantly lower prices than traditional grocery stores. Its competitive advantage lies in its opportunistic buying model and independent operator network.
Total Addressable Market (TAM)
The US grocery market is estimated at over $1 trillion. Grocery Outlet is positioned to capture a growing share of the value-oriented segment of this market.
Upturn SWOT Analysis
Strengths
- Deep discount pricing
- Opportunistic sourcing
- Independent operator model
- Strong brand loyalty in specific markets
- Flexible store format
Weaknesses
- Inconsistent product availability
- Limited brand awareness nationally
- Reliance on opportunistic buying
- Smaller store footprint compared to traditional supermarkets
Opportunities
- Expansion into new geographic markets
- Increased demand for value-priced groceries
- Growing online presence
- Strategic partnerships with suppliers
- Increased focus on private label brands
Threats
- Increased competition from discount retailers
- Fluctuations in food prices
- Changes in consumer preferences
- Supply chain disruptions
- Economic downturn
Competitors and Market Share
Key Competitors
- KR
- SFM
- DG
- DLTR
- WMT
Competitive Landscape
Grocery Outlet differentiates itself through deep discounts and opportunistic buying, appealing to budget-conscious consumers. Its challenges lie in competing with larger retailers with greater scale and brand recognition.
Growth Trajectory and Initiatives
Historical Growth: Grocery Outlet has experienced steady growth in revenue and store count over the past several years, driven by its deep-discount value proposition.
Future Projections: Future growth is projected to be driven by store expansion, increased same-store sales, and growing brand awareness.
Recent Initiatives: Recent initiatives include expanding its store network, improving its supply chain, and enhancing its online presence.
Summary
Grocery Outlet is a deep-discount grocery retailer with a unique business model that allows it to offer name-brand products at significantly lower prices. Its opportunistic buying and independent operator network are key strengths. However, its limited brand awareness and inconsistent product availability remain challenges. Future growth depends on successful store expansion and adaptation to changing consumer preferences.
Peer Comparison
Sources and Disclaimers
Data Sources:
- Company Website
- Analyst Reports
- Industry Publications
- SEC Filings
- Market Research Reports
Disclaimers:
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Market data and financial figures are estimates and may not be precise. Investment decisions should be based on individual research and consultation with a qualified financial advisor.
AI Summarization is directionally correct and might not be accurate.
Summarized information shown could be a few years old and not current.
Fundamental Rating based on AI could be based on old data.
AI-generated summaries may have inaccuracies (hallucinations). Please verify the information before taking action.
About Grocery Outlet Holding Corp
Exchange NASDAQ | Headquaters Emeryville, CA, United States | ||
IPO Launch date 2019-06-20 | President, CEO & Director Mr. Jason Potter | ||
Sector Consumer Defensive | Industry Grocery Stores | Full time employees 1692 | Website https://www.groceryoutlet.com |
Full time employees 1692 | Website https://www.groceryoutlet.com |
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. is a retailer of consumables and fresh products sold through independently operated stores in the United States. The company offers a variety of perishable department, including dairy and deli, produce and floral, and fresh meat and seafood. It also offers non-perishable department, such as non-perishable grocery, general merchandise, health and beauty care, frozen foods, and beer and wine. As of December 28, 2024, the company had 533 stores across California, Washington, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Idaho, Maryland, Nevada, North Carolina, New Jersey, Georgia, Ohio, Alabama, Delaware, Kentucky, and Virginia. Founded in 1946, Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. is headquartered in Emeryville, California.
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