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Upturn AI Summary - About
Graphic Packaging Holding Company(GPK)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for GPK
11/11/2026: GPK (1-star) has a low Upturn Star Rating. Not recommended to BUY.
Graphic Packaging Holding Company is a significant player in the sustainable, fiber-based packaging market, primarily serving the food and beverage industry. Its primary strength lies in an integrated business model that spans from raw paperboard production to finished packaging, providing both cost efficiency and supply chain security. The company's growth story is centered on the ongoing global shift from plastic to renewable, recyclable paper alternatives. While it faces risks related to input cost volatility and cyclical consumer demand, its reliable dividends and essential product focus make it a stable candidate for value-oriented investors. Investors should monitor developments in barrier coating technology and successful mill integration.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | The company offers moderate growth potential linked to the transition to sustainable packaging rather than hyper-growth tech metrics. |
| Momentum investor | Weak fit | The stock is typically influenced more by fundamental commodity pricing and long-term trends than by rapid speculative momentum. |
| Value investor | Strong fit | The stock often trades at valuations reflective of its stable, cash-generative business in an essential consumer goods industry. |
| Dividend investor | Strong fit | Graphic Packaging provides a steady, reliable dividend supported by consistent cash flows from essential packaging products. |
| Low-risk investor | Strong fit while signal remains positive | It operates in a mature, essential sector with stable demand, making it suitable for lower-risk profiles when fundamental signals are positive. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | Medium | Input costs for energy and raw materials can impact margin stability. |
| Valuation risk | Low | The stock typically trades at reasonable multiples relative to its earnings stability. |
| Competition risk (Packaging industry consolidation) | Medium / high | Intense competition from larger packaging conglomerates can exert pressure on pricing power. |
| Business quality | Strong | The company's vertically integrated model provides structural quality and supply security. |
| Dividend income | Low | Dividends are well-covered by cash flows, reducing income-related risk for investors. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Success depends on the integration of acquired assets and operational efficiency in paperboard mills. |
Price Behavior
Downtrend
The stock has experienced a sustained decline in price over recent periods.
Moderately Choppy
The stock has experienced noticeable price swings while retaining some directional structure.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -15.93% | Avg. Invested days 34 | Today’s Advisory Consider higher Upturn Star rating |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  2.0 | Stock Returns Performance  1.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 11/11/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Mid-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 3.30B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 44.56 | 1Y Target Price 12.1 |
Price to earnings Ratio 44.56 | 1Y Target Price 12.1 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 8.5M shares | Beta 0.66 | 52 Weeks Range 8.15 - 15.95 | Updated Date 11/11/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 8.15 - 15.95 | Updated Date 11/11/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 4.06% | Basic EPS (TTM) 0.25 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Consumer Packaging | Folding cartons for food, beverage, and household products. | This is the primary way the company earns money by converting raw paperboard into finished consumer goods. |
| Paperboard Mills | Production of various paperboard grades for internal use and external sale. | The mills provide the essential raw material that fuels the conversion business and allows for economies of scale. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Earnings Date
Report Date 2026-11-03 | When Before Market | Estimate 0.23 | Actual 0.23 |
Profitability
Profit Margin 0.86% | Operating Margin (TTM) 6.25% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 2.51% | Return on Equity (TTM) 2.28% |
Valuation
Trailing PE 44.56 | Forward PE 11.42 | Enterprise Value 8.46B | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.38 |
Enterprise Value 8.46B | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.38 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 0.97 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 8.78 | Shares Outstanding 296.09M | Shares Floating 270.90M |
Shares Outstanding 296.09M | Shares Floating 270.90M | ||
Percent Insiders 1.55 | Percent Institutions 119.25 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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