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Upturn AI Summary - About
Goosehead Insurance Inc(GSHD)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for GSHD
11/06/2026: GSHD (3-star) is a STRONG-BUY. BUY for 1 day. Simulated Profits (0.00%). Updated daily EoD!
Goosehead Insurance is a technology-enabled insurance agency that has built a unique business model combining corporate and franchise distribution channels. The company is known for its proprietary technology platform, which drives efficiency and competitive quoting for personal lines insurance. Its main growth opportunity lies in aggressive national franchise expansion and capturing share in the fragmented personal lines market. Risks include intense competition from established insurers, sensitivity to interest rates, and the challenges of scaling a human-capital-dependent network. This stock may suit growth-oriented investors who are comfortable with higher volatility and are monitoring the company's ability to maintain productivity while scaling operations.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Strong fit | The company's focus on rapid scaling and proprietary technology platform aligns well with growth-oriented investment strategies. |
| Momentum investor | Mixed fit | Momentum depends on the current growth trajectory remaining in a positive upturn signal relative to market expectations. |
| Value investor | Weak fit | The company typically trades at a high valuation multiple due to its growth profile, which may not appeal to traditional value investors. |
| Dividend investor | Weak fit | Goosehead does not pay a dividend as it reinvests all capital back into the business. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | High growth volatility and sensitivity to insurance industry cycles make this less suitable for risk-averse portfolios. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | High | Growth stocks like GSHD are susceptible to significant price swings based on interest rate changes and growth performance updates. |
| Valuation risk | Medium / high | High P/E ratios require consistent, rapid growth to justify current prices. |
| Competition risk (Insurtech) | Medium | Newer digital-first platforms may pressure commission rates or service expectations. |
| Business quality | Medium | While the platform is strong, the reliance on human-capital-intensive franchise growth creates execution risks. |
| Dividend income | Low / none | Investors should not expect income from this stock. |
| Execution risk | Medium / high | Successfully managing a massive, decentralized franchise network is difficult and mission-critical. |
Price Behavior
Rolling Over
The price momentum is slowing down and beginning to turn downward.
Choppy
The stock has experienced frequent reversals and pronounced short-term price swings.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 71.3% | Avg. Invested days 36 | Today’s Advisory Strong Buy |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  3.0 | Stock Returns Performance  4.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 11/06/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Small-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 1.99B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 40.55 | 1Y Target Price 62.08 |
Price to earnings Ratio 40.55 | 1Y Target Price 62.08 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 415.5K shares | Beta 1.5 | 52 Weeks Range 33.68 - 79.85 | Updated Date 11/08/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 33.68 - 79.85 | Updated Date 11/08/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) - | Basic EPS (TTM) 1.37 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Commission Revenue | Fees earned from insurance carriers for writing and renewing personal lines insurance policies. | The company makes money every time they help a customer buy an insurance policy or renew one. |
| Franchise Fees | Initial and ongoing fees paid by franchise owners to use the Goosehead brand and software platform. | Goosehead collects recurring revenue from their network of independent franchise agents. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Earnings Date
Report Date 2026-11-09 | When After Market | Estimate 0.33 | Actual - |
Profitability
Profit Margin 8.79% | Operating Margin (TTM) 23.39% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 13.82% | Return on Equity (TTM) 175.84% |
Valuation
Trailing PE 40.55 | Forward PE 20.88 | Enterprise Value 1.67B | Price to Sales(TTM) 4.94 |
Enterprise Value 1.67B | Price to Sales(TTM) 4.94 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 4.16 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA - | Shares Outstanding 23.80M | Shares Floating 20.74M |
Shares Outstanding 23.80M | Shares Floating 20.74M | ||
Percent Insiders 3.58 | Percent Institutions 115.93 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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