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Arch Capital Group Ltd.(ACGL)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for ACGL
09/15/2026: ACGL (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
Arch Capital Group Ltd. is a global insurance and reinsurance firm that has built a strong reputation through disciplined underwriting and strategic market positioning. The company benefits from a diversified portfolio across specialty insurance, reinsurance, and mortgage insurance, which provides stable revenue streams. Its primary growth opportunity lies in its ability to deploy capital efficiently into hard-market insurance conditions. Key risks include exposure to volatile catastrophe losses and potential cyclical downturns in the housing and reinsurance markets. The stock is best suited for long-term investors focused on book value growth, as the company prioritizes reinvestment over dividends, requiring monitoring of underwriting performance and climate-related event losses.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Strong fit | Arch consistently seeks to compound book value per share through disciplined underwriting and strategic deployment of capital. |
| Momentum investor | Mixed fit | The stock can follow positive industry trends, but it is often driven by long-term fundamental performance rather than short-term price momentum. |
| Value investor | Strong fit | The company's focus on underwriting profitability and book value growth often aligns with value-oriented criteria. |
| Dividend investor | Weak fit | Arch does not emphasize dividends, preferring to reinvest capital or conduct share repurchases. |
| Low-risk investor | Medium fit | While stable, the insurance business is subject to inherent catastrophe risks which can introduce volatility. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | Medium | Market reactions to catastrophe events can cause short-term stock price fluctuations. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | As a financial stock, valuation is tied to book value, which can be impacted by market cycles. |
| Competition risk (Insurance and Reinsurance) | Medium / high | Intense competition for premiums can pressure margins in core business lines. |
| Business quality | Strong | Arch is widely recognized for its disciplined underwriting and operational excellence. |
| Dividend income | Low | Investors should not rely on the stock for significant income generation. |
| Execution risk | Medium | The complexity of integrating acquisitions and managing global risks requires significant management oversight. |
Price Behavior
Steady Uptrend
The stock demonstrates consistent and steady upward price momentum.
Smooth
The stock has moved along a generally orderly path with only modest fluctuations.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -11.06% | Avg. Invested days 30 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  2.0 | Stock Returns Performance  1.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 09/15/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Large-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 33.40B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 7.66 | 1Y Target Price 111.87 |
Price to earnings Ratio 7.66 | 1Y Target Price 111.87 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 2.5M shares | Beta 0.28 | 52 Weeks Range 82.45 - 107.09 | Updated Date 09/15/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 82.45 - 107.09 | Updated Date 09/15/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) - | Basic EPS (TTM) 12.78 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Insurance | Commercial property, casualty, and professional liability insurance. | Profit is made by collecting more in premiums than is paid out in claims and expenses. |
| Reinsurance | Providing reinsurance coverage for other insurers, particularly for large-scale catastrophes. | Acts as an insurer for other insurance companies, managing risk at scale. |
| Mortgage | Mortgage insurance for lenders and government-sponsored entities. | Revenue comes from protecting lenders against borrower defaults on residential mortgages. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Valuation
Trailing PE 7.66 | Forward PE 9.74 | Enterprise Value 37.36B | Price to Sales(TTM) 1.74 |
Enterprise Value 37.36B | Price to Sales(TTM) 1.74 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 2.01 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA - | Shares Outstanding 341.00M | Shares Floating 327.25M |
Shares Outstanding 341.00M | Shares Floating 327.25M | ||
Percent Insiders 2.68 | Percent Institutions 94.16 |
Upturn AI Summary
AI Summarization is directionally correct and might not be accurate.
Summarized information shown could be a few years old and not current.
Fundamental Rating based on AI could be based on old data.
AI-generated summaries may have inaccuracies (hallucinations). Please verify the information before taking action.
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
About Arch Capital Group Ltd.
Exchange NASDAQ | Headquarters - | ||
IPO Launch date 1995-09-13 | CEO & Director Mr. Nicolas Alain Emmanuel Papadopoulo | ||
Sector Financial Services | Industry Insurance - Diversified | Full time employees 8000 | Website https://www.archgroup.com |
Full time employees 8000 | Website https://www.archgroup.com | ||
Arch Capital Group Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance, reinsurance, and mortgage insurance products in the United States, Canada, Bermuda, the United Kingdom, Europe, and Australia. The company operates through three segments: Insurance, Reinsurance, and Mortgage. The Insurance segment offers commercial automobile; commercial multiperil; financial and professional line liability; admitted, excess, and surplus casualty lines; property and short-tail specialty; workers compensation; and casualty insurance. Its Reinsurance segment provides reinsurance products for casualty; marine and aviation; property catastrophe; property excluding property catastrophe; and other specialty products. The Mortgage segment offers U.S. primary mortgage insurance business written predominantly on loans sold to the Federal National Mortgage Association and Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation; reinsurance and underwriting services related to the U.S. credit-risk transfer business and other U.S. mortgage reinsurance transactions; and international mortgage insurance and reinsurance business covering loans. It markets its products through a group of licensed independent retail and wholesale brokers. The company was formerly known as Risk Capital Holdings, Inc. Arch Capital Group Ltd. was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Pembroke, Bermuda.
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