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Upturn AI Summary - About
Arch Capital Group Ltd.(ACGL)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for ACGL
11/13/2026: ACGL (1-star) has a low Upturn Star Rating. Not recommended to BUY.
Arch Capital Group Ltd. is a global insurance and reinsurance firm recognized for its disciplined underwriting and diversified business model across property, specialty, and mortgage insurance. The company has historically delivered strong margins by focusing on niche market segments where its expertise provides a competitive advantage. Its primary growth opportunity lies in its ability to deploy capital opportunistically across fluctuating market cycles and expand its specialty offerings. However, risks include sensitivity to major catastrophe events, intense industry competition, and potential volatility in the housing market. The stock may best suit growth-oriented investors looking for a well-managed financial firm, though it is less suitable for those prioritizing regular dividend income.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Strong fit | The company has a consistent history of growing book value per share through disciplined underwriting and strategic deployment of capital. |
| Momentum investor | Strong fit while signal remains positive | Arch often exhibits sustained price trends when insurance pricing cycles move in favor of the industry. |
| Value investor | Strong fit | The stock is frequently analyzed based on its price-to-book ratio, making it attractive to value-oriented investors when trading near historical averages. |
| Dividend investor | Weak fit | Arch primarily focuses on share repurchases and capital reinvestment rather than paying regular dividends. |
| Low-risk investor | Mixed fit | While the company is financially stable, the insurance sector is inherently subject to market volatility and large catastrophe risks. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | Medium | The stock price can fluctuate significantly based on news regarding catastrophe events or industry-wide insurance cycle shifts. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | As an insurer, the company's valuation is tied to book value, which can be impacted by changes in interest rates or investment asset values. |
| Competition risk (Underwriting competition) | Medium / high | Intense competition from global peers like Chubb and RenaissanceRe can compress underwriting margins. |
| Business quality | Strong | The company is recognized for its disciplined underwriting culture and history of capital allocation success. |
| Dividend income | Low / none | The company does not prioritize dividend payments, making it unsuitable for income-focused portfolios. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Success depends on the accurate pricing of risk, and failures in underwriting judgment could lead to significant financial losses. |
Key Highlights
Company Size Large-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 35.68B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 8.96 | 1Y Target Price 113.58 |
Price to earnings Ratio 8.96 | 1Y Target Price 113.58 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 2.1M shares | Beta 0.19 | 52 Weeks Range 87.05 - 113.63 | Updated Date 11/14/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 87.05 - 113.63 | Updated Date 11/14/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) - | Basic EPS (TTM) 12.23 |
Sector & Industry Intelligence
Sector
Financial Services
Constructive- Sentiment
- Bullish
- Momentum
- BUY Breadth Improving
- BUY participation
- 50.4%
- Active BUY / eligible
- 61 / 121
- 30-Day BUY Count Change
- +45
- Market state
- Bullish
More qualifying stocks are receiving or maintaining BUY advisories, indicating improving market participation.
Industry
Insurance - Diversified
- BUY participation
- 50.0%
- Active BUY / eligible
- 2 / 4
- 30-Day BUY Count Change
- +2
Eligible universe: 4 stocks.
Sector signal summarizes BUY breadth conditions for the sector. It does not override this stock’s BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory.
Price Behavior
Steady Uptrend
The stock demonstrates consistent and steady upward price momentum.
Smooth
The stock has moved along a generally orderly path with only modest fluctuations.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -2.47% | Avg. Invested days 29 | Today’s Advisory Consider higher Upturn Star rating |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  2.0 | Stock Returns Performance  1.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 11/13/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Insurance | Specialty lines including property, casualty, and professional liability coverage. | The company collects premiums in exchange for covering specific business risks. |
| Reinsurance | Risk transfer services provided to other insurance companies globally. | This is an 'insurance for insurance companies' business that benefits when market rates rise. |
| Mortgage | Residential mortgage insurance for lenders and government-sponsored enterprises. | Profitability is tied to the health of the housing market and mortgage default rates. |
| Geography | Operations spanning North America, Europe, and international markets. | Global diversification helps the company spread risk across different economic regions. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Earnings Date
Report Date 2026-10-27 | When After Market | Estimate 2.15 | Actual 2.67 |
Profitability
Profit Margin 23.31% | Operating Margin (TTM) 27.1% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 3.9% | Return on Equity (TTM) 18.74% |
Valuation
Trailing PE 8.96 | Forward PE 11.04 | Enterprise Value 39.73B | Price to Sales(TTM) 1.9 |
Enterprise Value 39.73B | Price to Sales(TTM) 1.9 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 2.2 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA - | Shares Outstanding 325.53M | Shares Floating 311.20M |
Shares Outstanding 325.53M | Shares Floating 311.20M | ||
Percent Insiders 2.92 | Percent Institutions 94.59 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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