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Upturn AI Summary - About
Marathon Petroleum Corp(MPC)
Top performer 
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for MPC
11/06/2026: MPC (5-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
Marathon Petroleum Corp is a major U.S. downstream energy company focused on refining, marketing, and midstream logistics. It has a leading position in the refining sector, supported by an integrated midstream network that provides stability and operational efficiency. The primary investment story centers on its ability to generate significant cash flow, which supports a consistent dividend and aggressive share repurchases. However, investors must monitor risks such as commodity price volatility, regulatory changes regarding carbon emissions, and long-term energy transition threats. The stock may best suit value and dividend-focused investors seeking exposure to energy infrastructure and cyclical refining markets while monitoring capital allocation strategies.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | Growth is largely driven by cyclical energy markets rather than secular technology-style expansion. |
| Momentum investor | Mixed fit | Stock performance is highly conditional on positive oil price trends and crack spread expansion. |
| Value investor | Strong fit | MPC often trades at attractive valuation multiples relative to its strong cash flow generation. |
| Dividend investor | Strong fit | The company provides a reliable and growing dividend stream supported by operational cash flows. |
| Low-risk investor | Mixed fit | The business is subject to inherent commodity price volatility and regulatory risks. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | High | Profitability is heavily tied to the spread between crude oil costs and refined product prices. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | Market sentiment toward fossil fuel companies can lead to valuation compression. |
| Competition risk (Refining/Midstream) | Medium | Intense competition from domestic and international refiners can pressure margins. |
| Business quality | Strong | The company possesses high-quality, complex, and integrated assets that provide a durable competitive moat. |
| Dividend income | Low | Dividend payouts are generally well-covered by free cash flow, reducing income risk. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Large-scale capital projects and operational maintenance require high levels of technical execution. |
Price Behavior
Strong Uptrend
The stock has maintained a strong upward price trend across the last three quarters.
Moderately Choppy
The stock has experienced noticeable price swings while retaining some directional structure.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 111.19% | Avg. Invested days 51 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  4.0 | Stock Returns Performance  5.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 11/06/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Large-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 101.49B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 7.39 | 1Y Target Price 460.29 |
Price to earnings Ratio 7.39 | 1Y Target Price 460.29 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 2.2M shares | Beta 0.51 | 52 Weeks Range 160.07 - 493.98 | Updated Date 11/07/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 160.07 - 493.98 | Updated Date 11/07/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 1.09% | Basic EPS (TTM) 50.47 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Refining & Marketing | Manufacturing gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel; retail marketing. | This is the primary engine generating cash from selling fuel to consumers and industry. |
| Midstream (MPLX) | Pipelines, storage tanks, and natural gas processing plants. | This provides steady, fee-based income by moving and storing energy products. |
| Geography | Primary operations across the United States. | The company's success is tied heavily to the North American energy demand and logistics network. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Earnings Date
Report Date 2026-11-03 | When Before Market | Estimate 25.74 | Actual 26.93 |
Profitability
Profit Margin 8.34% | Operating Margin (TTM) 17.98% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 13.75% | Return on Equity (TTM) 60.46% |
Valuation
Trailing PE 7.39 | Forward PE 5.31 | Enterprise Value 123.58B | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.58 |
Enterprise Value 123.58B | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.58 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 0.71 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 4.86 | Shares Outstanding 272.28M | Shares Floating 271.47M |
Shares Outstanding 272.28M | Shares Floating 271.47M | ||
Percent Insiders 0.34 | Percent Institutions 81.16 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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