Phillips 66 logo

Phillips 66(PSX)

upturn advisory logo
EXPLORE ADVISORIES AND THEIR HISTORY
QUALITY SIGNAL
4-STAR RATING
PASS
LAST CLOSE
$264.9
11/13/2026
(24-hour delay)

Advisory History & Simulated Performance *

*as per simulation (see disclosures)
  • ALL
  • 1Y
  • 1M
  • 1W
  • BUY Advisory
  • SELL Advisory (Profit)
  • SELL Advisory (Loss)
  • Profit
  • Loss
  • PASS (Skip)
Upturn Stock price based on last close iconStock price based on last close
Simulated performance—not actual client returns. Excludes advisory subscription fees, trading commissions, and taxes, which would reduce returns. Results depend on calculation assumptions and do not guarantee future outcomes. See Disclosures for full methodology, assumptions, and limitations.

Advisory Performance History (Simulated)Advisory Performance History info

Simulated performance—not actual client returns. Excludes advisory subscription fees, trading commissions, and taxes, which would reduce returns. Results depend on calculation assumptions and do not guarantee future outcomes. See Disclosures for full methodology, assumptions, and limitations.

Upturn Advisory & Investor View for PSX

11/13/2026: PSX (4-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.

Phillips 66 is a large-scale, diversified energy company with a significant footprint in refining, midstream infrastructure, and petrochemicals. Its primary strength lies in an integrated model that balances volatile refining returns with steady, fee-based midstream cash flows. The company’s main investment story revolves around optimizing these core assets and expanding into renewable fuel production to navigate the energy transition. While it has historically maintained strong margins and rewarded shareholders through dividends, it faces significant risks from commodity price volatility, regulatory shifts, and the long-term impact of electrification on fuel demand. It generally suits value-oriented and income-focused investors who can manage sector-specific cyclicality.

How to Read the Upturn Advisory

The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.

Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.

Investor Fit

Investor styleFitWhy
Growth investorMixed fitGrowth is moderate and cyclical rather than high-growth, tied heavily to energy commodity cycles.
Momentum investorStrong fit while signal remains positiveMomentum investors may favor the stock during periods of rising refining margins and energy price strength.
Value investorStrong fitThe company often trades at reasonable multiples relative to its cash flow generation and asset base.
Dividend investorStrong fitPhillips 66 is generally considered a reliable income stock with a history of consistent dividend growth.
Low-risk investorMixed fitEnergy industry volatility makes this stock unsuitable for investors seeking complete safety, despite the company's scale.

Risk Profile

Risk factorLevelWhy it matters
Price volatilityHighEarnings are directly sensitive to fluctuations in crude oil and refined product prices.
Valuation riskMediumValuation fluctuates significantly with cyclical commodity cycles and market sentiment toward the energy sector.
Competition risk (refined products)HighThe refining space is intensely competitive, with margins driven by large-scale, cost-efficient incumbents.
Business qualityStrongThe company possesses high-quality, long-lived infrastructure and strategic joint ventures.
Dividend incomeStrongManagement has prioritized sustainable and growing dividend payouts for long-term shareholders.
Execution riskMediumSuccess depends on the effective operation and maintenance of complex, massive industrial infrastructure.

Key Highlights

Company Size Large-Cap Stock
Market Capitalization 102.55B USD
Price to earnings Ratio 8.43
1Y Target Price 291.32
Price to earnings Ratio 8.43
1Y Target Price 291.32
Volume (30-day avg) 2.8M shares
Beta 0.67
52 Weeks Range 124.55 - 299.39
Updated Date 11/12/2026
52 Weeks Range 124.55 - 299.39
Updated Date 11/12/2026
Dividends yield (FY) 1.94%
Basic EPS (TTM) 31.18

Sector & Industry Intelligence

Sector

Energy

Caution
Sentiment
Strong Bearish
Momentum
Rapid Breadth Deterioration
BUY participation
10.9%
Active BUY / eligible
6 / 55
30-Day BUY Count Change
-22
Market state
Strong Bearish

BUY participation is falling rapidly, suggesting elevated market vulnerability.

Industry

Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

BUY participation
0.0%
Active BUY / eligible
0 / 9
30-Day BUY Count Change
-8

Sector signal summarizes BUY breadth conditions for the sector. It does not override this stock’s BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory.

Price Behavior

Strong Uptrend
PRICE PATH

Strong Uptrend

The stock has maintained a strong upward price trend across the last three quarters.

Moderately Choppy
PRICE STABILITY

Moderately Choppy

The stock has experienced noticeable price swings while retaining some directional structure.

Analysis of Past Performance

Type Stock
Historic Profit 31.23%
Avg. Invested days 43
Today’s Advisory PASS
Upturn Advisory Rating upturn star rating icon
Upturn Advisory Performance Upturn Advisory Performance icon 2.0
Stock Returns Performance Upturn Returns Performance icon 3.0
Upturn Profits based on simulation icon Profits based on simulation
Upturn last close icon Last Close 11/13/2026

Upturn Scorecard

Upturn Star Rating

★★★★★
PSX receives a 3-star rating, supported by solid company fundamentals, solid quantitative characteristics, and solid analyst coverage. The rating is constrained by weak unit economics, weak price momentum, and limited analyst upside.

Company Fundamentals

★★★★★
PSX has solid overall fundamentals (4 stars), with moderate financial health, solid growth momentum, and solid ownership. In FY2025 versus FY2024, strong earnings growth (+108.0%) is partially offset by soft cash generation (FCF margin 2.1%), negative revenue growth (-7.6%), soft profitability (net margin 3.3%).

Financial Health Rating

★★★★★
PSX's financial health is supported by strong cash strength, including free-cash-flow generation of $2.7B (2.1% of revenue). Profitability is soft (2 stars), which helps explain the 3-star overall score.

Growth Momentum Score

★★★★★
Earnings growth is PSX's strongest growth driver at +108.0% FY2025 versus FY2024 (strong, 5 stars). By comparison, free-cash-flow growth (+17.0%, solid) is also solid, while revenue growth (-7.6%, negative) holds the profile back, so recent growth is not broad-based across the business.

Ownership

★★★★★
Institutional ownership is 82.4% and approximately 99.8% of outstanding shares are publicly tradable, supporting liquidity and institutional participation. Insider ownership is only 0.22%, which materially reduces the ownership score.

Top 5 Institutional Investors

BlackRock Inc 8.75%
Vanguard Capital Management, LLC 6.71%
State Street Corp 6.68%
Vanguard Portfolio Management, LLC 5.69%
Elliott Investment Management LP 4.94%

Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)

★★★★★
PSX generates approximately $49 of gross profit, $27 of operating income, and $21 of free cash flow for every $1,000 of revenue. Based on FY2025 results. Weak margins explain the 1-star rating, with weak cash conversion and soft capital efficiency.

Economic Dimensions

★★★★★
Effective Tax Rate: 16.46%

Quantitative Style Profile

★★★★★
PSX has a high-quality, large-cap, liquid, relatively low-volatility profile. Weak momentum is the primary drawback.

Style Classification

Quality Focused

Value-OrientedQuality TiltLow VolatilityLarge / Mega Cap StabilityHighly Liquid / Institution-Friendly

How Company Makes Money

Business areaWhat it includesRetail investor read
MidstreamPipelines, terminals, and NGL processing services.This segment provides steady, fee-based income from moving energy products.
RefiningGasoline, diesel, and jet fuel production.This is a volatile, margin-driven business that benefits from favorable 'crack spreads'.
ChemicalsPetrochemical manufacturing via JV.A key earnings contributor that benefits from low-cost natural gas feedstock.
Marketing and SpecialtiesBranded fuel stations and lubricant sales.Provides stable, downstream retail revenue through direct consumer brand interaction.

Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth

Revenue by Products

Product revenue - Year on Year

Revenue by Geography

Geography revenue - Year on Year

Earnings Date

Report Date 2026-10-28
When Before Market
Estimate 11.97
Actual 14.08

Profitability

Profit Margin 7.48%
Operating Margin (TTM) 8.2%

Management Effectiveness

Return on Assets (TTM) 10.64%
Return on Equity (TTM) 39.84%

Valuation

Trailing PE 8.43
Forward PE 9.77
Enterprise Value 113.59B
Price to Sales(TTM) 0.61
Enterprise Value 113.59B
Price to Sales(TTM) 0.61
Enterprise Value to Revenue 0.68
Enterprise Value to EBITDA 5.81
Shares Outstanding 390.07M
Shares Floating 389.16M
Shares Outstanding 390.07M
Shares Floating 389.16M
Percent Insiders 0.22
Percent Institutions 82.36

Financial Metrics

🧭 Investment Snapshot

Total Revenue (Scale)

Information icon Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.

Net Income (Profit)

Information icon Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.

Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)

Information icon Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.

📈 Growth & Strength

Operating Income (Core Profit)

Information icon Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.

EBITDA (Cash Earnings)

Information icon Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.

Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)

Information icon Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.

🛡️ Financial Safety

Cash (Liquidity Buffer)

Information icon Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.

Total Debt (Leverage Risk)

Information icon Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.

Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)

Information icon Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.

🧱 Balance Sheet Strength

Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)

Information icon Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.

Total Assets (Asset Base)

Information icon The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.

Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)

Information icon Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.

⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors

Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)

Information icon Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.

Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)

Information icon Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.

Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)

Information icon Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.

Form CRS provides a relationship summary of our automated advisory services, flat subscription fees, and conflicts of interest. Form ADV Part 2A brochure contains complete details on services, billing, and disclosures. If any summary differs from our current regulatory filings, the filed Form ADV controls.