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Upturn AI Summary - About
Mesabi Trust(MSB)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for MSB
10/29/2026: MSB (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
Mesabi Trust is a passive royalty trust that generates income from iron ore production at the Peter Mitchell Mine in Minnesota. Its core strength lies in its low-cost structure, which allows it to pass royalty revenues directly to shareholders without operational management overhead. The primary investment story centers on the cycle of iron ore prices and the Trust's potential for cash distributions as production continues. However, the Trust faces significant risks, including extreme reliance on a single mine operator, commodity price volatility, and potential regulatory challenges. It is best suited for income-focused investors who can tolerate high dividend instability and monitor the mine operator's ongoing performance.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Weak fit | The Trust is a legacy asset with limited long-term growth potential beyond existing resource depletion. |
| Momentum investor | Mixed fit | This is a conditional fit depending on positive commodity price trends for iron ore. |
| Value investor | Mixed fit | Valuation is often tied to the net present value of expected future distributions, which can be difficult to forecast. |
| Dividend investor | Strong fit | The Trust is structured specifically to provide consistent, if variable, pass-through income to unitholders. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | The extreme volatility of commodity prices and dependence on a single operation creates significant risk. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | High | Revenue is directly linked to fluctuating global iron ore prices. |
| Valuation risk | Medium / high | Calculating the terminal value of the Trust is difficult due to finite, non-renewable resource life. |
| Competition risk (commodity price competition) | Medium | Global iron ore supply competition impacts the margins of the operator and thus the Trust's royalty. |
| Business quality | Medium | The Trust is a passive entity with no ability to improve operational efficiency. |
| Dividend income | High | Payouts are highly unstable and directly tied to mining volume and ore prices. |
| Execution risk | High | The Trust relies entirely on the mine operator's ability to maintain production and sales. |
Price Behavior
Steep Decline
The stock price has dropped sharply with strong downward pressure.
Moderately Choppy
The stock has experienced noticeable price swings while retaining some directional structure.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 3.23% | Avg. Invested days 40 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  2.0 | Stock Returns Performance  1.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/29/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Small-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 240.75M USD | Price to earnings Ratio 36.55 | 1Y Target Price 33 |
Price to earnings Ratio 36.55 | 1Y Target Price 33 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 48.9K shares | Beta 0.33 | 52 Weeks Range 17.25 - 41.58 | Updated Date 10/29/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 17.25 - 41.58 | Updated Date 10/29/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 4.85% | Basic EPS (TTM) 0.49 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Royalty Income | Royalty payments from the Peter Mitchell Mine based on iron ore pellet production. | You collect a portion of the revenue generated from iron ore mined on the trust's land. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Valuation
Trailing PE 36.55 | Forward PE 12.77 | Enterprise Value 217.59M | Price to Sales(TTM) 20.96 |
Enterprise Value 217.59M | Price to Sales(TTM) 20.96 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 19.41 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 28.12 | Shares Outstanding 13.12M | Shares Floating 13.11M |
Shares Outstanding 13.12M | Shares Floating 13.11M | ||
Percent Insiders 0.08 | Percent Institutions 53.3 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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