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Midland States Bancorp, Inc.(MSBI)

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ADVISORIES YOU CAN VERIFY
QUALITY SIGNAL RECENCY
2-STAR RATING
Consider higher Upturn Star rating
BUY for 120 days
PROFIT SINCE LAST BUY
+44.42% ▲
LAST CLOSE
$33.26
09/25/2026
(24-hour delay)

Advisory History & Simulated Performance *

*as per simulation (see disclosures)
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Upturn Advisory & Investor View for MSBI

09/25/2026: MSBI (2-star) has a low Upturn Star Rating. Not recommended to BUY.

Midland States Bancorp is a Midwestern regional bank that provides commercial and retail banking, wealth management, and insurance services. The company is known for its relationship-based business model and diversified revenue streams, which help manage earnings stability. Its primary growth story revolves around selective acquisitions and expanding its fee-based wealth management services. However, it faces risks from geographic concentration, interest rate volatility, and fierce competition from both larger regional banks and digital challengers. The stock may suit value-oriented and dividend-seeking investors who can tolerate regional economic sensitivity. Key developments to monitor include net interest margin trends and the successful execution of digital upgrades.

How to Read the Upturn Advisory

The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.

Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.

Investor Fit

Investor styleFitWhy
Growth investorMixed fitThe company offers moderate growth potential through market expansion but is not a high-growth tech-style investment.
Momentum investorWeak fitThis is a stable regional bank stock and typically lacks the rapid upward price movement sought by momentum strategies.
Value investorStrong fitThe company often trades at valuations typical of regional banks, appealing to those looking for intrinsic value.
Dividend investorStrong fitThe history of consistent quarterly dividend payments makes it suitable for income-focused portfolios.
Low-risk investorMixed fitWhile more stable than growth stocks, the company remains subject to regional economic and interest rate risks.

Risk Profile

Risk factorLevelWhy it matters
Price volatilityMediumThe stock price is subject to fluctuations based on interest rate announcements and general bank sector trends.
Valuation riskMediumCurrent market valuations for regional banks are sensitive to shifting macroeconomic outlooks.
Competition riskMedium / highRegional banking faces intense competition from larger institutions and digital disruptors.
Business qualityMediumThe company maintains solid asset quality but operates in a highly regulated and cyclical industry.
Dividend incomeMediumDividend sustainability depends on the company's ability to maintain sufficient earnings through various economic cycles.
Execution riskMediumSuccessfully integrating acquisitions and scaling digital services is key to long-term performance.

Price Behavior

Strong Uptrend
PRICE PATH

Strong Uptrend

The stock has maintained a strong upward price trend across the last three quarters.

Smooth
PRICE STABILITY

Smooth

The stock has moved along a generally orderly path with only modest fluctuations.

Analysis of Past Performance

Type Stock
Historic Profit 19.79%
Avg. Invested days 46
Today’s Advisory Consider higher Upturn Star rating
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Upturn Advisory Performance Upturn Advisory Performance icon 3.0
Stock Returns Performance Upturn Returns Performance icon 2.0
Upturn Profits based on simulation icon Profits based on simulation
Upturn last close icon Last Close 09/25/2026

Upturn Scorecard

Upturn Star Rating

★★★★★
MSBI receives a 3-star rating, supported by available scored pillars. The rating is constrained by soft analyst coverage, weak price momentum, and limited analyst upside.

Company Fundamentals

★★★★★
MSBI has moderate overall fundamentals (3 stars), with soft financial health, soft growth momentum, and strong ownership. In FY2025 versus FY2024, strong cash generation (FCF margin 25.7%) is partially offset by negative earnings growth (-426.7%), negative revenue growth (-14.4%), soft profitability (net margin -26.6%).

Financial Health Rating

★★★★★
MSBI's financial health is supported by moderate cash strength, including free-cash-flow generation (25.7% of revenue). Profitability is soft (2 stars), which helps explain the 2-star overall score.

Growth Momentum Score

★★★★★
MSBI's growth profile is soft, with the least-weak measure being revenue growth at -14.4% FY2025 versus FY2024. By comparison, while earnings growth (-426.7%, negative) and free-cash-flow growth (-29.1%, negative) hold the profile back, so recent growth is not broad-based across the business.

Ownership

★★★★★
Institutional ownership is 72.3% and approximately 94.0% of outstanding shares are publicly tradable, supporting liquidity and institutional participation. Insider ownership of 8.17% supports management-shareholder alignment.

Top 5 Institutional Investors

BlackRock Inc 13.76%
Vanguard Capital Management, LLC 4.34%
Dimensional Fund Advisors, Inc. 4.14%
State Street Corp 3.69%
Busey Trust Co 3.66%

Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)

★★★★★
MSBI generates approximately $574 of gross profit, $-221 of operating income, and $257 of free cash flow for every $1,000 of revenue. Based on FY2025 results. Strong cash conversion and healthy margins support the rating, although capital efficiency remains below the highest tier.

Economic Dimensions

★★★★★
Effective Tax Rate: -8.19% (Tax Credit)

Quantitative Style Profile

★★★★★
MSBI has a liquid, relatively low-volatility profile. Weak momentum is the primary drawback.

Style Classification

Quality Focused

Value-OrientedLow VolatilitySmall / Mid Cap RiskShort Squeeze RiskHighly Liquid / Institution-Friendly

Key Highlights

Company Size Small-Cap Stock
Market Capitalization 687.52M USD
Price to earnings Ratio 20.58
1Y Target Price 33.25
Price to earnings Ratio 20.58
1Y Target Price 33.25
Volume (30-day avg) 162.1K shares
Beta 0.64
52 Weeks Range 13.47 - 34.76
Updated Date 09/25/2026
52 Weeks Range 13.47 - 34.76
Updated Date 09/25/2026
Dividends yield (FY) 3.95%
Basic EPS (TTM) 1.61

How Company Makes Money

Business areaWhat it includesRetail investor read
Net Interest IncomeInterest earned on commercial and retail loans minus interest paid on deposits.This is the primary way the bank earns money, by lending at higher rates than it pays to savers.
Fee-Based ServicesWealth management, trust services, and insurance commissions.This provides a steadier stream of income that does not rely strictly on interest rate fluctuations.
Geographic PresenceOperations primarily across Illinois, Missouri, and surrounding Midwestern states.The bank's health is tied closely to the economic strength of the Midwest region.

Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth

Revenue by Products

Product revenue - Year on Year

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Valuation

Trailing PE 20.58
Forward PE 8.22
Enterprise Value 851.20M
Price to Sales(TTM) 2.4
Enterprise Value 851.20M
Price to Sales(TTM) 2.4
Enterprise Value to Revenue 3.66
Enterprise Value to EBITDA -
Shares Outstanding 20.75M
Shares Floating 19.50M
Shares Outstanding 20.75M
Shares Floating 19.50M
Percent Insiders 8.17
Percent Institutions 72.28

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Financial Metrics

🧭 Investment Snapshot

Total Revenue (Scale)

Information icon Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.

Net Income (Profit)

Information icon Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.

Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)

Information icon Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.

📈 Growth & Strength

Operating Income (Core Profit)

Information icon Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.

EBITDA (Cash Earnings)

Information icon Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.

Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)

Information icon Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.

🛡️ Financial Safety

Cash (Liquidity Buffer)

Information icon Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.

Total Debt (Leverage Risk)

Information icon Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.

Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)

Information icon Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.

🧱 Balance Sheet Strength

Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)

Information icon Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.

Total Assets (Asset Base)

Information icon The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.

Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)

Information icon Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.

⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors

Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)

Information icon Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.

Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)

Information icon Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.

Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)

Information icon Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.

About Midland States Bancorp, Inc.

Exchange NASDAQ
Headquarters Effingham, IL, United States
IPO Launch date 2016-05-24
President, CEO & Vice Chairman Mr. Jeffrey G. Ludwig CPA
Sector Financial Services
Industry Banks - Regional
Full time employees 839
Full time employees 839

Midland States Bancorp, Inc. operates as a financial holding company for Midland States Bank that provides various banking products and services to individuals, businesses, municipalities, and other entities. It operates in Banking and Wealth Management segments. The company offers commercial loans; commercial real estate loans that include various property types, such as owner-occupied offices, warehouses and production facilities, office buildings, hotels, mixed-use residential and commercial facilities, retail centers, multifamily properties, assisted living facilities, and farmland; construction and land development loans, including loans to small and midsized businesses to construct owner-user properties, loans to developers of commercial real estate investment properties and residential developments, and loans to individual clients for construction of single family homes; and residential real estate loans comprising first and second mortgage loans, and home equity lines of credit. It also provides commercial equipment leasing; depository products consisting of checking, savings, money market, certificates of deposits, and sweep accounts; and trust and wealth management products and services, such as financial and estate planning, trustee and custodial services, investment management, tax and insurance planning, business planning, corporate retirement plan consulting and administration, and retail brokerage services. The company was founded in 1881 and is headquartered in Effingham, Illinois.