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Upturn AI Summary - About
Midland States Bancorp, Inc.(MSBI)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for MSBI
10/23/2026: MSBI (2-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
Midland States Bancorp is a regional financial holding company focused on providing commercial, retail, and wealth management services primarily in the Midwest. The company maintains a solid foundation through its relationship-based banking approach and diversified income from its wealth management segment. While its established market presence provides stability, the company faces risks from intense competition and a sensitivity to local economic fluctuations. It may best suit value-oriented or dividend-focused investors seeking exposure to regional banking. Key developments to monitor include the company’s success in managing net interest margins amidst changing interest rate environments and the efficacy of its ongoing digital platform investments.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | The company offers moderate growth potential aligned with regional economic cycles rather than high-growth tech expansion. |
| Momentum investor | Weak fit | The stock typically exhibits stable, value-oriented behavior rather than high-frequency momentum spikes. |
| Value investor | Strong fit | Midland States Bancorp is often valued based on tangible book value and consistent earnings potential. |
| Dividend investor | Strong fit | The company has a history of providing steady dividends suitable for income-focused portfolios. |
| Low-risk investor | Mixed fit | While established, the company is still subject to the inherent risks and volatility of the regional banking sector. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | Medium | Bank stocks are sensitive to interest rate changes, which can lead to fluctuations in market valuation. |
| Valuation risk | Low | Shares are often traded near their book value, limiting extreme overvaluation risks. |
| Competition risk (regional banking) | Medium / high | Intense competition for deposits and loans from both large and small banks compresses profit margins. |
| Business quality | Medium | The franchise relies on strong customer relationships, which can be difficult to scale or maintain against digital competitors. |
| Dividend income | Medium | Dividends are dependent on sustained profitability and are not guaranteed in the event of economic downturns. |
| Execution risk | Medium | The company's strategy relies on effectively integrating acquisitions and managing credit risk in a fluctuating economy. |
Price Behavior
Strong Uptrend
The stock has maintained a strong upward price trend across the last three quarters.
Smooth
The stock has moved along a generally orderly path with only modest fluctuations.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 17.91% | Avg. Invested days 46 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  3.0 | Stock Returns Performance  2.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/23/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Small-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 684.40M USD | Price to earnings Ratio 14.53 | 1Y Target Price 33 |
Price to earnings Ratio 14.53 | 1Y Target Price 33 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 173.4K shares | Beta 0.64 | 52 Weeks Range 13.47 - 34.76 | Updated Date 10/25/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 13.47 - 34.76 | Updated Date 10/25/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 3.88% | Basic EPS (TTM) 2.27 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Net Interest Income | Earnings from interest on loans and securities minus interest paid on deposits. | This is the primary engine of the bank, making money on the spread between what they earn on loans and pay on deposits. |
| Wealth Management | Fees earned from trust services, financial planning, and investment advisory. | A fee-based, recurring revenue source that is less sensitive to interest rate changes than traditional lending. |
| Geography | Operations primarily in Illinois and Missouri. | Performance is closely tied to the economic health and employment levels in the Midwestern United States. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Earnings Date
Report Date 2026-10-22 | When After Market | Estimate 0.9 | Actual 0.95 |
Profitability
Profit Margin 18.97% | Operating Margin (TTM) 37.48% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 0.85% | Return on Equity (TTM) 10.45% |
Valuation
Trailing PE 14.53 | Forward PE 8.22 | Enterprise Value 1.28B | Price to Sales(TTM) 2.23 |
Enterprise Value 1.28B | Price to Sales(TTM) 2.23 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 3.69 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA - | Shares Outstanding 20.75M | Shares Floating 19.54M |
Shares Outstanding 20.75M | Shares Floating 19.54M | ||
Percent Insiders 8.15 | Percent Institutions 72.27 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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