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Upturn AI Summary - About
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc(NGVC)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for NGVC
10/26/2026: NGVC (2-star) has a low Upturn Star Rating. Not recommended to BUY.
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc is a specialized retail chain focused on organic groceries and nutritional supplements, known for its strict product standards and health-focused brand. The company benefits from a dedicated, health-conscious customer base that prioritizes quality over discount pricing. Its primary growth story revolves around steady store expansion in selected regional markets and deepening customer loyalty. Key risks include intense competition from large-scale grocers and the impact of inflation on discretionary spending. This stock may suit investors seeking long-term exposure to the wellness trend who are comfortable with the risks of a niche, small-cap retailer that does not currently provide a consistent dividend.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | The company shows stable but modest growth potential rather than the rapid scaling typical of aggressive growth stocks. |
| Momentum investor | Weak fit | The stock tends to trade based on long-term fundamentals rather than short-term price momentum or high volatility. |
| Value investor | Mixed fit | Valuation is often tied to niche growth expectations, making it a selective pick rather than a traditional deep-value play. |
| Dividend investor | Weak fit | Lack of a consistent, recurring dividend policy makes it unsuitable for income-focused portfolios. |
| Low-risk investor | Mixed fit | While the business model is steady, retail sector exposure and reliance on discretionary spending present moderate risk. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | Medium | The stock can experience swings based on grocery industry sentiment and discretionary spending trends. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | Market pricing can sometimes disconnect from the company's moderate, steady growth profile. |
| Competition risk (Grocery retail) | High | Intense pressure from larger retailers with greater buying power threatens market share. |
| Business quality | Medium | The niche focus provides a clear identity but limits the scalability of the franchise model. |
| Dividend income | Low / none | Shareholders cannot rely on the company for consistent passive income generation. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Success depends on the ability to profitably expand and manage store-level labor and supply chain costs. |
Price Behavior
Strong Uptrend
The stock has maintained a strong upward price trend across the last three quarters.
Moderately Choppy
The stock has experienced noticeable price swings while retaining some directional structure.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 45.16% | Avg. Invested days 31 | Today’s Advisory Consider higher Upturn Star rating |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  4.0 | Stock Returns Performance  3.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/26/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Small-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 713.51M USD | Price to earnings Ratio 15.1 | 1Y Target Price 42.25 |
Price to earnings Ratio 15.1 | 1Y Target Price 42.25 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 127.7K shares | Beta 1.22 | 52 Weeks Range 23.09 - 39.56 | Updated Date 10/26/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 23.09 - 39.56 | Updated Date 10/26/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 1.81% | Basic EPS (TTM) 2.05 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Retail Operations | Direct sales of groceries, vitamins, and supplements through physical store locations. | Revenue comes from customers buying groceries and wellness products in-store. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Valuation
Trailing PE 15.1 | Forward PE 13.16 | Enterprise Value 1.03B | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.53 |
Enterprise Value 1.03B | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.53 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 0.77 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 10.76 | Shares Outstanding 23.05M | Shares Floating 9.55M |
Shares Outstanding 23.05M | Shares Floating 9.55M | ||
Percent Insiders 43.37 | Percent Institutions 41.06 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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