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Upturn AI Summary - About
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc(NGVC)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for NGVC
09/28/2026: NGVC (1-star) has a low Upturn Star Rating. Not recommended to BUY.
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc is a specialized retail chain focused on organic groceries and dietary supplements, positioning itself as a health-conscious destination for consumers. The company's primary strength lies in its commitment to high-quality products and in-store nutritional coaching, which fosters strong customer loyalty. Its growth story hinges on disciplined geographic expansion and potential improvements in e-commerce reach. However, the company faces significant risks from intense competition by national supermarket chains and potential shifts in consumer spending due to inflation. Suited for value or income-oriented investors, the stock remains a defensive play, provided that management successfully manages operational costs and competitive pressures.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | Growth is steady rather than explosive due to the physical nature of store expansion. |
| Momentum investor | Weak fit | The stock typically exhibits lower volatility and lower trading volume compared to high-momentum growth names. |
| Value investor | Strong fit | The company often trades at reasonable valuation multiples relative to its stable cash flows and market position. |
| Dividend investor | Strong fit | Consistent dividend payments make it suitable for income-oriented portfolios. |
| Low-risk investor | Strong fit | The essential nature of grocery retail provides a defensive characteristic for lower-risk profiles. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | Medium | The stock can experience swings based on grocery industry sentiment and inflation reports. |
| Valuation risk | Low | Trading at moderate multiples limits the downside potential associated with extreme overvaluation. |
| Competition risk (supermarket chains) | High | Major players like Kroger and Whole Foods exert significant price pressure on smaller retailers. |
| Business quality | Medium | The company maintains a high-quality product standard but lacks the massive scale of national peers. |
| Dividend income | Low | Dividends are reliable but typically do not represent a high-yield growth play. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Success depends on the effective management of new store rollouts and labor costs. |
Price Behavior
Rolling Over
The price momentum is slowing down and beginning to turn downward.
Moderately Choppy
The stock has experienced noticeable price swings while retaining some directional structure.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 45.39% | Avg. Invested days 29 | Today’s Advisory Consider higher Upturn Star rating |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  4.0 | Stock Returns Performance  3.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 09/28/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Small-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 707.51M USD | Price to earnings Ratio 14.48 | 1Y Target Price 42.25 |
Price to earnings Ratio 14.48 | 1Y Target Price 42.25 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 153.6K shares | Beta 1.25 | 52 Weeks Range 23.09 - 40.26 | Updated Date 09/28/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 23.09 - 40.26 | Updated Date 09/28/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 1.92% | Basic EPS (TTM) 2.12 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Grocery Retail | In-store sales of natural/organic food, supplements, and body care. | Revenue is primarily driven by daily foot traffic and transaction sizes in physical stores. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Valuation
Trailing PE 14.48 | Forward PE 12.41 | Enterprise Value 988.75M | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.53 |
Enterprise Value 988.75M | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.53 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 0.74 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 10.33 | Shares Outstanding 23.05M | Shares Floating 9.46M |
Shares Outstanding 23.05M | Shares Floating 9.46M | ||
Percent Insiders 43.83 | Percent Institutions 40.98 |
Upturn AI Summary
AI Summarization is directionally correct and might not be accurate.
Summarized information shown could be a few years old and not current.
Fundamental Rating based on AI could be based on old data.
AI-generated summaries may have inaccuracies (hallucinations). Please verify the information before taking action.
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
About Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc
Exchange NYSE | Headquarters Lakewood, CO, United States | ||
IPO Launch date 2012-07-25 | CEO - | ||
Sector Consumer Defensive | Industry Grocery Stores | Full time employees 3455 | Website https://www.naturalgrocers.com |
Full time employees 3455 | Website https://www.naturalgrocers.com | ||
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, retails natural and organic groceries, and dietary supplements in the United States. The company's stores offer natural and organic grocery products, such as organic produce; private label repackaged bulk products, including dried fruits, nuts, grains, granolas, teas, herbs, and spices, as well as peanut and almond butters; private label products comprising grocery staples, household products, bulk foods, and vitamins and dietary supplements, as well as organic eggs, organic flavored coffee, and organic mustard; dry, frozen, and canned groceries; meat and seafood products; dairy products, dairy substitutes, and eggs; prepared foods; bread and baked products; beverages; and beer, wine, and hard cider products. Its stores also provide name-brand supplements, as well as private label dietary supplements; body care products consisting of cosmetics, skin care, hair care, fragrance, and personal care products containing natural and organic ingredients; pet care and food products; household and general merchandise, including cleaning supplies, paper products, and dish and laundry soaps, as well as other common household products, such as diapers; and books and handouts. The company operates its retail stores under the Natural Grocers, Vitamin Cottage, Health Hotline, Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage trademark, as well as Vitamin Cottage Natural Grocers and Health Hotline trademarks. The company also offers science-based nutrition education programs to help customers make informed health and nutrition choices. The company was formerly known as Vitamin Cottage Natural Food Markets, Inc. Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. was founded in 1955 and is headquartered in Lakewood, Colorado.
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