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Upturn AI Summary - About
NRG Energy Inc.(NRG)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for NRG
09/28/2026: NRG (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
NRG Energy is a prominent integrated power company that operates a large-scale retail electricity business alongside a diverse generation fleet in the United States. Its primary strength lies in its vertical integration, which provides a natural hedge between power generation costs and retail consumer pricing. The company's growth strategy centers on expanding its home services ecosystem to increase customer retention and recurring revenue. However, NRG faces risks from commodity price volatility, high debt levels, and regulatory exposure in key markets like Texas. It is generally suitable for value and dividend-focused investors, though market-specific developments and operational execution in the retail segment should be monitored.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | Growth is largely driven by M&A and operational efficiency rather than explosive organic market expansion. |
| Momentum investor | Strong fit while signal remains positive | The stock can exhibit strong momentum during periods of energy market tightening or successful execution of capital return programs. |
| Value investor | Strong fit | NRG is often valued on its free cash flow yield, making it attractive when the market underprices its retail franchise stability. |
| Dividend investor | Strong fit | The company maintains a consistent dividend policy supported by predictable cash flows from its retail business. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | Exposure to commodity markets and weather-related operational risks introduces volatility unsuitable for very low-risk portfolios. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | Medium / high | Energy commodity price swings impact generation costs and retail margins. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | The stock's valuation is tied to its ability to generate stable free cash flow, which can fluctuate. |
| Competition risk (Retail Energy) | Medium | Intense competition from Vistra and regional providers limits pricing power. |
| Business quality | Medium | The integrated model is robust, though heavy reliance on specific regional regulations remains. |
| Dividend income | Medium | Dividends are generally stable, though capital allocation priorities can change. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Successful integration of acquired assets and management of the diverse portfolio is key to performance. |
Price Behavior
Steep Decline
The stock price has dropped sharply with strong downward pressure.
Choppy
The stock has experienced frequent reversals and pronounced short-term price swings.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 87.16% | Avg. Invested days 61 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  3.0 | Stock Returns Performance  4.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 09/28/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Large-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 20.39B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 25.26 | 1Y Target Price 188.56 |
Price to earnings Ratio 25.26 | 1Y Target Price 188.56 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 2.7M shares | Beta 1.17 | 52 Weeks Range 96.86 - 188.71 | Updated Date 09/28/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 96.86 - 188.71 | Updated Date 09/28/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 1.86% | Basic EPS (TTM) 3.84 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Retail Energy | Sale of electricity and gas, home services, and smart tech. | The core of the business is the stable recurring income from retail energy customers. |
| Generation | Operation of natural gas, oil, and solar power plants. | Generation assets serve as a cost hedge to support the retail business. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Valuation
Trailing PE 25.26 | Forward PE 9.03 | Enterprise Value 45.13B | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.62 |
Enterprise Value 45.13B | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.62 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 1.36 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 12.08 | Shares Outstanding 210.21M | Shares Floating 209.26M |
Shares Outstanding 210.21M | Shares Floating 209.26M | ||
Percent Insiders 4.46 | Percent Institutions 95.72 |
Upturn AI Summary
AI Summarization is directionally correct and might not be accurate.
Summarized information shown could be a few years old and not current.
Fundamental Rating based on AI could be based on old data.
AI-generated summaries may have inaccuracies (hallucinations). Please verify the information before taking action.
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
About NRG Energy Inc.
Exchange NYSE | Headquarters Houston, TX, United States | ||
IPO Launch date 2000-05-25 | President, CEO & Director Mr. Robert J. Gaudette | ||
Sector Utilities | Industry Utilities - Independent Power Producers | Full time employees 16702 | Website https://www.nrg.com |
Full time employees 16702 | Website https://www.nrg.com | ||
NRG Energy, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an energy and home services company in the United States and Canada. It operates through the Texas, East, West/Other, Vivint Smart Home, and Corporate Activities segments. The company offers retail electricity, energy management, demand response and virtual power plant programs, carbon offsets, smart home security, and automation services. It also offers system power, distributed and backup generation, energy storage, energy management, renewable and low-carbon products, and carbon management solutions for large business and commercial customers; a cloud-based home platform, including hardware, software, sales, installation, customer service, technical support, and professional monitoring solutions; and generation portfolio includes fossil fuel and renewable generation assets diversified by fuel type and dispatch level, with ongoing development of new natural gas and renewable projects. In addition, the company trades in power, natural gas, and related products; environmental products; weather products; and financial products, including forwards, futures, options, and swaps. It offers its products and services under the NRG, Reliant, Direct Energy, Green Mountain Energy, and Vivint. It serves residential, commercial, government, industrial, data center, and wholesale customers. NRG Energy, Inc. was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
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