Home 
Today's Top Picks 
Top Performers 
Watchlist 
My Robo Portfolios 
ETF Zone 
How It Works 
News - Chart
- Upturn Summary
- Highlights
- Revenue
- Valuation
Upturn AI Summary - About
NRG Energy Inc.(NRG)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for NRG
10/26/2026: NRG (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
NRG Energy is a vertically integrated power company that operates a significant retail energy business alongside a diverse generation fleet. The company has successfully shifted toward a consumer-centric model, benefiting from recurring retail revenue and strong cash flow generation. Its primary growth opportunity lies in leveraging its large customer base to cross-sell smart home services and meeting the rising electricity demand from data centers. However, investors must consider risks related to its debt levels, the volatility of competitive retail markets, and regulatory uncertainty. The stock may suit value and dividend-focused investors looking for exposure to stable cash flows, while monitoring execution on service expansion remains key.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | Growth is moderate and tied to service penetration rather than explosive technology adoption. |
| Momentum investor | Strong fit while signal remains positive | The stock often trends with energy market sentiment and institutional flows in utility sectors. |
| Value investor | Strong fit | NRG often trades at reasonable multiples relative to its free cash flow generation. |
| Dividend investor | Strong fit | The company offers a reliable dividend yield backed by stable cash flows from retail operations. |
| Low-risk investor | Mixed fit | While retail provides stability, exposure to wholesale power price volatility and debt levels adds risk. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | Medium / high | Wholesale power prices impact margins if not adequately hedged. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | Market sentiment toward utility-adjacent stocks can cause multiple compression. |
| Competition risk (retail energy) | High | Low barriers to entry in retail energy result in aggressive pricing competition. |
| Business quality | Medium / high | The transition to a customer-focused model has improved quality but remains an execution-heavy business. |
| Dividend income | Low | The dividend is supported by consistent cash flow from a large retail base. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Successfully integrating and cross-selling services to millions of customers is operationally complex. |
Price Behavior
Steep Decline
The stock price has dropped sharply with strong downward pressure.
Moderately Choppy
The stock has experienced noticeable price swings while retaining some directional structure.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 97.37% | Avg. Invested days 64 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  3.0 | Stock Returns Performance  4.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/26/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Large-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 19.68B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 24.51 | 1Y Target Price 176.72 |
Price to earnings Ratio 24.51 | 1Y Target Price 176.72 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 3.1M shares | Beta 1.16 | 52 Weeks Range 90.80 - 188.71 | Updated Date 10/26/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 90.80 - 188.71 | Updated Date 10/26/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 2.02% | Basic EPS (TTM) 3.82 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Retail Energy | Electricity and natural gas sales to residential/commercial users. | This is the core stable income driver through monthly energy bills. |
| Generation | Operation of power plants selling into wholesale markets. | Provides the supply that backs the retail business and offers upside during market spikes. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Valuation
Trailing PE 24.51 | Forward PE 9.12 | Enterprise Value 43.36B | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.59 |
Enterprise Value 43.36B | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.59 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 1.31 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 11.61 | Shares Outstanding 210.21M | Shares Floating 209.26M |
Shares Outstanding 210.21M | Shares Floating 209.26M | ||
Percent Insiders 4.46 | Percent Institutions 95.29 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
Note: This website is maintained by Upturn Corporation, which is an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Such registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Investing in securities has risks. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. No assurance is provided as to any particular investment return, and you may lose money using our services. You are strongly advised to consult appropriate counsel before making any investments in companies you learn about through our services. You should obtain appropriate legal, tax, investment, accounting, and other advice that takes into account your investment portfolio and overall financial situation. You are solely responsible for conducting due diligence on a potential investment. We do not affect trades for you. You will select your own broker through which to transact. Investments are not FDIC insured, they are not guaranteed, and they may lose value. Please see the Privacy Policy, Terms of Use, and Disclosure for more information.
All company names, trademarks, logos, and brands are the property of their respective owners and are used for identification and informational purposes only. Use of these names, trademarks, and logos does not imply endorsement by their respective owners.