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Vistra Energy Corp (VST)

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Upturn Advisory Summary
12/19/2025: VST (5-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
1 Year Target Price $233.29
1 Year Target Price $233.29
| 10 | Strong Buy |
| 5 | Buy |
| 2 | Hold |
| 0 | Sell |
| 1 | Strong Sell |
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 318.44% | Avg. Invested days 63 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Star Rating ![]() | Upturn Advisory Performance | Stock Returns Performance |
Key Highlights
Company Size Large-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 55.24B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 58.43 | 1Y Target Price 233.29 |
Price to earnings Ratio 58.43 | 1Y Target Price 233.29 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 18 | Beta 1.4 | 52 Weeks Range 90.30 - 219.82 | Updated Date 12/20/2025 |
52 Weeks Range 90.30 - 219.82 | Updated Date 12/20/2025 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 0.54% | Basic EPS (TTM) 2.79 |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Earnings Date
Report Date - | When - | Estimate - | Actual - |
Profitability
Profit Margin 6.7% | Operating Margin (TTM) 21.04% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 3.59% | Return on Equity (TTM) 17.31% |
Valuation
Trailing PE 58.43 | Forward PE 17.04 | Enterprise Value 74614719634 | Price to Sales(TTM) 3.21 |
Enterprise Value 74614719634 | Price to Sales(TTM) 3.21 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 4.34 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 14.42 | Shares Outstanding 338825490 | Shares Floating 316415572 |
Shares Outstanding 338825490 | Shares Floating 316415572 | ||
Percent Insiders 0.71 | Percent Institutions 92.72 |
Upturn AI SWOT
Vistra Energy Corp

Company Overview
History and Background
Vistra Energy Corp. was formed in 2014 as a spin-off from Energy Future Holdings. It has since grown through strategic acquisitions and organic development to become a major integrated power generation and retail electricity provider in the United States. Key milestones include its IPO, the acquisition of Dynegy in 2018, and the acquisition of Crius Energy in 2019, which significantly expanded its retail customer base. The company has focused on optimizing its generation fleet and expanding its retail services.
Core Business Areas
- Wholesale Power Operations: Vistra's wholesale segment generates electricity from a diverse portfolio of power plants, including natural gas, nuclear, coal, and battery energy storage systems. This segment sells electricity and related products into wholesale power markets.
- Retail Electricity Operations: Through its retail brands (e.g., TXU Energy, HomeServe), Vistra provides electricity and related services to millions of residential and commercial customers primarily in Texas. This segment focuses on customer acquisition, retention, and offering various pricing plans and services.
- Integrated Operations: Vistra also focuses on the integration of its generation assets with its retail operations, leveraging market insights to optimize power purchases and sales, and managing fuel supply for its generation fleet.
Leadership and Structure
Vistra Energy Corp. is led by a seasoned management team with extensive experience in the energy sector. Its organizational structure is designed to manage its distinct wholesale generation and retail customer segments, with integrated functions for finance, legal, and operations. Specific leadership roles can be found on the company's investor relations website.
Top Products and Market Share
Key Offerings
- Description: Vistra operates a diverse portfolio of power generation assets, including natural gas-fired plants, nuclear, coal, and increasingly, battery energy storage systems. The company aims to provide reliable and cost-effective power to wholesale markets.
- Market Share Data: Difficult to quantify precise market share for individual generation technologies as it operates in complex, deregulated wholesale markets. However, it is a significant generator in the ERCOT (Texas) market. Competitors include other large power generators like NRG Energy, Calpine Corporation, and various independent power producers.
- Product Name 1: Wholesale Electricity Generation
- Description: Vistra offers a wide range of electricity plans and value-added services to residential and commercial customers through its well-known retail brands like TXU Energy. Services include fixed-rate plans, variable-rate plans, and smart home solutions.
- Market Share Data: As of recent reports, Vistra is one of the largest retail electricity providers in Texas, serving millions of customers. Specific market share fluctuates but is estimated to be in the range of 20-30% of the Texas deregulated market. Major competitors include Reliant Energy, Green Mountain Energy, and a multitude of other retail electric providers.
- Product Name 2: Retail Electricity Services
- Description: Vistra is investing heavily in battery energy storage systems (BESS) to enhance grid reliability, provide ancillary services, and support renewable energy integration. These systems are crucial for modernizing the grid.
- Market Share Data: Emerging market. Vistra is a leading developer and operator of BESS in Texas, but the market is rapidly evolving with numerous players entering. Competitors include companies like Tesla, NextEra Energy Resources, and Duke Energy.
- Product Name 3: Battery Energy Storage Solutions
Market Dynamics
Industry Overview
The US energy industry, particularly the power generation and retail electricity sectors, is undergoing significant transformation. Key trends include the increasing integration of renewable energy sources, the growing importance of battery storage, evolving regulatory landscapes, and the demand for reliable and affordable energy solutions. The industry is characterized by volatile commodity prices, technological advancements, and a strong focus on environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors.
Positioning
Vistra Energy Corp. is well-positioned as an integrated power company, combining significant generation capacity with a large and established retail customer base. Its strategic investments in battery storage and its diverse generation fleet provide resilience. The company's strength lies in its operational expertise, its ability to manage risk in volatile markets, and its customer-centric approach in the retail segment.
Total Addressable Market (TAM)
The Total Addressable Market for Vistra is multifaceted, encompassing the wholesale power generation market in regions it operates (primarily ERCOT) and the retail electricity market in deregulated states (primarily Texas). The TAM for wholesale power generation is in the tens of billions of dollars annually, driven by electricity demand. The retail electricity TAM in Texas alone is estimated to be in the tens of billions of dollars annually. Vistra is a significant player in both, with a dominant position in its core retail market and a substantial generation capacity in its wholesale market.
Upturn SWOT Analysis
Strengths
- Diversified generation portfolio (natural gas, nuclear, coal, battery storage)
- Large and established retail customer base in Texas
- Significant investments in battery energy storage systems (BESS)
- Integrated business model allowing for operational synergies
- Strong operational expertise and risk management capabilities
Weaknesses
- Exposure to commodity price volatility (natural gas, electricity)
- Dependence on the Texas market (ERCOT) for a substantial portion of its business
- Aging coal generation assets, facing regulatory and environmental pressures
- Capital intensive industry requiring continuous investment
Opportunities
- Continued growth in battery energy storage deployments
- Expansion into new deregulated retail markets
- Acquisition of complementary generation or retail assets
- Leveraging its generation fleet to support renewable energy growth
- Development of innovative retail energy products and services
Threats
- Increasing regulatory scrutiny and environmental mandates (e.g., carbon emissions)
- Intensifying competition in both wholesale and retail markets
- Extreme weather events impacting grid reliability and demand
- Cybersecurity risks targeting energy infrastructure
- Fluctuations in natural gas prices and availability
Competitors and Market Share
Key Competitors
- NRG Energy (NRG)
- Calpine Corporation (CPN - Note: Calpine is privately held)
- Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG)
- NextEra Energy, Inc. (NEE)
Competitive Landscape
Vistra competes in a dynamic and competitive energy market. Its integrated model, strong retail presence in Texas, and leadership in battery storage are key advantages. However, it faces competition from larger, diversified utilities and specialized energy companies. Its ability to manage commodity price risks and adapt to regulatory changes is crucial for maintaining its competitive edge.
Major Acquisitions
Dynegy Inc.
- Year: 2018
- Acquisition Price (USD millions): 13000
- Strategic Rationale: Acquisition of Dynegy significantly expanded Vistra's generation capacity and operational footprint, creating a more diversified and efficient power generation business and strengthening its position in wholesale markets.
Crius Energy
- Year: 2019
- Acquisition Price (USD millions): 342
- Strategic Rationale: Acquisition of Crius Energy substantially grew Vistra's retail electricity customer base across multiple states, enhancing its retail market penetration and diversifying its customer portfolio.
Growth Trajectory and Initiatives
Historical Growth: Vistra has experienced significant historical growth, largely through strategic acquisitions (e.g., Dynegy, Crius Energy) and organic expansion of its generation and retail businesses. The company has successfully integrated these acquisitions, leveraging scale and operational efficiencies.
Future Projections: Analyst estimates for Vistra's future growth generally anticipate continued expansion in its retail segment, further development of battery energy storage, and optimization of its generation fleet. Projections often factor in expected demand growth, commodity price trends, and the company's strategic initiatives. Specific projections can be found in analyst reports.
Recent Initiatives: Recent initiatives include significant investments in battery energy storage systems, expansion of its retail offerings, and efforts to enhance the efficiency and environmental performance of its generation fleet. The company is also focused on digital transformation and customer engagement strategies.
Summary
Vistra Energy Corp. is a robust integrated power company with strong positions in both wholesale power generation and retail electricity services, particularly in Texas. Its strategic investments in battery storage and diversified generation portfolio are key strengths. However, the company faces risks from commodity price volatility, regulatory shifts, and intense competition. Continued focus on operational efficiency, sustainable growth initiatives, and risk management will be crucial for its future success.
Similar Stocks
Sources and Disclaimers
Data Sources:
- Vistra Energy Corp. Investor Relations
- Company SEC Filings (10-K, 10-Q)
- Financial News Outlets (e.g., Reuters, Bloomberg)
- Industry Analysis Reports
Disclaimers:
This JSON output is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Financial data and market share estimates are based on publicly available information as of the last update and are subject to change. Numerical data for graphical representation should be verified with the latest official financial reports.
AI Summarization is directionally correct and might not be accurate.
Summarized information shown could be a few years old and not current.
Fundamental Rating based on AI could be based on old data.
AI-generated summaries may have inaccuracies (hallucinations). Please verify the information before taking action.
About Vistra Energy Corp
Exchange NYSE | Headquaters Irving, TX, United States | ||
IPO Launch date 2016-10-04 | President, CEO & Director Mr. James A. Burke CPA | ||
Sector Utilities | Industry Utilities - Independent Power Producers | Full time employees 6850 | Website https://vistracorp.com |
Full time employees 6850 | Website https://vistracorp.com | ||
Vistra Corp., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated retail electricity and power generation company in the United States. It operates through five segments: Retail, Texas, East, West, and Asset Closure. The company retails electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers across states in the United States and the District of Columbia. It also involved in the electricity generation, wholesale energy purchases and sales, commodity risk management, fuel production, and fuel logistics management activities. It serves approximately 5 million customers with a generation capacity of approximately 41,000 megawatts with a portfolio of natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery energy storage facilities. The company was formerly known as Vistra Energy Corp. and changed its name to Vistra Corp. in July 2020. Vistra Corp. was founded in 1882 and is based in Irving, Texas.

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