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Upturn AI Summary - About
Vistra Corp.(VST)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for VST
10/28/2026: VST (3-star) is a SELL. SELL for 1 day. Simulated Profits (-8.59%). Updated daily EoD!
Vistra Corp. is a major integrated energy company operating a large fleet of power generation assets and a widespread retail electricity business. The company benefits from its integrated structure, which effectively hedges wholesale market risks, and has a leading position in providing carbon-free nuclear and renewable power to high-demand sectors like data centers. Its primary growth opportunity lies in capitalizing on the explosive energy demand from artificial intelligence infrastructure. Key risks include exposure to commodity price volatility and the operational challenges of managing large, capital-intensive facilities. The stock remains well-suited for investors seeking exposure to energy transition themes and stable, dividend-paying utility-style investments.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Strong fit | Vistra captures growth through secular shifts in energy demand from data centers and electrification. |
| Momentum investor | Strong fit while signal remains positive | The stock has demonstrated significant upward price momentum driven by favorable industry capacity pricing. |
| Value investor | Mixed fit | Valuation has increased significantly, making it less of a classic deep-value play than in the past. |
| Dividend investor | Strong fit | Vistra provides reliable income with a growing dividend supported by stable cash flows. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | Energy markets can be volatile, and the stock is subject to industry-specific regulatory and commodity risks. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | Medium / high | Commodity price swings directly affect the profitability of unhedged generation assets. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | Rapid price appreciation may incorporate high future growth expectations that require precise execution. |
| Competition risk (Data Center/AI Power) | Medium | While demand is rising, securing long-term power contracts with tech giants involves intense competition with other generators. |
| Business quality | Strong | The company maintains a high-quality, diverse asset fleet that is essential for grid stability. |
| Dividend income | Low | The dividend is well-supported by free cash flow, reducing the risk of payouts being cut. |
| Execution risk | Medium | The successful integration of large acquisitions like Energy Harbor is critical to realizing synergies. |
Price Behavior
Downtrend
The stock has experienced a sustained decline in price over recent periods.
Moderately Choppy
The stock has experienced noticeable price swings while retaining some directional structure.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 101.53% | Avg. Invested days 36 | Today’s Advisory SELL |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  3.0 | Stock Returns Performance  5.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/28/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Large-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 49.22B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 24.73 | 1Y Target Price 208.23 |
Price to earnings Ratio 24.73 | 1Y Target Price 208.23 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 6.8M shares | Beta 1.38 | 52 Weeks Range 132.26 - 197.68 | Updated Date 10/28/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 132.26 - 197.68 | Updated Date 10/28/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 0.64% | Basic EPS (TTM) 5.93 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Retail Electricity | Direct supply of power to homes and businesses across various regulated and deregulated states. | Vistra acts as the provider, managing price plans and customer relationships for electricity usage. |
| Wholesale Generation | Sale of electricity generated from nuclear, gas, and solar plants into wholesale markets. | The company sells power to the grid, benefiting when electricity market prices are high. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Valuation
Trailing PE 24.73 | Forward PE 13.7 | Enterprise Value 69.51B | Price to Sales(TTM) 2.56 |
Enterprise Value 69.51B | Price to Sales(TTM) 2.56 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 3.62 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 10.61 | Shares Outstanding 335.64M | Shares Floating 312.99M |
Shares Outstanding 335.64M | Shares Floating 312.99M | ||
Percent Insiders 0.77 | Percent Institutions 92.41 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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