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Natera Inc(NTRA)
Top performer 
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for NTRA
10/28/2026: NTRA (5-star) is a STRONG-BUY. BUY for 102 days. Simulated Profits (91.09%). Updated daily EoD!
Natera Inc is a leader in molecular diagnostics, specializing in cell-free DNA technology for women's health, oncology, and transplant monitoring. The company has a strong position in the high-growth testing market, driven by its proprietary bioinformatics and the successful clinical adoption of its Signatera test. While its aggressive commercialization strategy has fueled rapid revenue growth, Natera remains focused on scaling, with profitability fluctuating as it invests in R&D and market reach. Key risks include ongoing patent litigation, regulatory oversight of laboratory tests, and dependence on insurance reimbursement. This stock best suits growth-oriented investors who can tolerate high price volatility and the risks associated with diagnostic innovation.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Strong fit | Natera represents a high-growth story in the diagnostics space with significant recurring revenue potential. |
| Momentum investor | Strong fit while signal remains positive | The stock frequently attracts momentum interest due to rapid revenue expansion and market leadership in oncology monitoring. |
| Value investor | Weak fit | High valuation multiples and historical net losses make this an unsuitable choice for traditional value-oriented strategies. |
| Dividend investor | Weak fit | The company does not pay a dividend and focuses entirely on growth reinvestment. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | Regulatory risks, patent litigation exposure, and high volatility make this unsuitable for low-risk portfolios. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | High | The stock price is highly sensitive to earnings surprises and litigation news. |
| Valuation risk | Medium / high | High P/S multiples require sustained, flawless growth to justify current market valuations. |
| Competition risk (Genomic diagnostics) | High | Significant pressure from peers like Guardant Health and Exact Sciences could compress margins. |
| Business quality | Medium | The business has strong clinical technology but remains dependent on complex reimbursement environments. |
| Dividend income | Low / none | Investors should expect zero income yield from this equity. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Success depends on continuing to gain clinician adoption and favorable coverage policies. |
Price Behavior
Strong Uptrend
The stock has maintained a strong upward price trend across the last three quarters.
Choppy
The stock has experienced frequent reversals and pronounced short-term price swings.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 302.1% | Avg. Invested days 51 | Today’s Advisory Strong Buy |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  3.0 | Stock Returns Performance  5.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/28/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Large-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 59.22B USD | Price to earnings Ratio - | 1Y Target Price 411.39 |
Price to earnings Ratio - | 1Y Target Price 411.39 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 1.7M shares | Beta 1.5 | 52 Weeks Range 181.00 - 437.41 | Updated Date 10/28/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 181.00 - 437.41 | Updated Date 10/28/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) - | Basic EPS (TTM) -1.35 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Clinical Testing Services | Revenue from Panorama, Signatera, and Prospera tests billed to insurers or patients. | Natera sells high-tech genetic tests to doctors; most of its money comes from insurance companies paying for these diagnostics. |
| Geography | Predominantly the United States, with a growing effort to expand into international markets. | The company is currently very focused on the US healthcare market, which provides the bulk of its revenue. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Valuation
Trailing PE - | Forward PE 5000 | Enterprise Value 57.51B | Price to Sales(TTM) 21.88 |
Enterprise Value 57.51B | Price to Sales(TTM) 21.88 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 21.24 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA -26.8 | Shares Outstanding 144.14M | Shares Floating 140.13M |
Shares Outstanding 144.14M | Shares Floating 140.13M | ||
Percent Insiders 2.73 | Percent Institutions 96.76 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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