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Upturn AI Summary - About
NVR Inc(NVR)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for NVR
10/23/2026: NVR (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
NVR Inc. is a leading US homebuilder known for its efficient 'land-light' business model and disciplined capital allocation. By operating primarily in the Eastern United States, it provides single-family and attached homes while offering integrated mortgage services. The company's main strength lies in its ability to generate high returns without the burden of large-scale land ownership, which it reinforces through aggressive share repurchases. While it faces risks from interest rate volatility and intense competition, its operational discipline remains a key focus for investors. NVR is suited for long-term growth investors who value capital efficiency over dividends, though they should monitor macro housing demand and interest rate shifts.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Strong fit | NVR has a long history of compounding earnings through operational efficiency and disciplined capital returns. |
| Momentum investor | Mixed fit | Momentum is conditional on positive trends in the broader housing market and favorable interest rate environments. |
| Value investor | Mixed fit | While the business is high quality, its valuation can fluctuate significantly based on homebuilder sector cycles. |
| Dividend investor | Weak fit | NVR does not pay a cash dividend, focusing instead on capital appreciation via stock buybacks. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | The company's stock is subject to cyclical industry risks and volatility inherent in the homebuilding sector. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | High | The stock price is highly sensitive to shifts in the housing cycle and macroeconomic conditions. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | Market expectations for housing demand can cause significant P/E multiple fluctuations. |
| Competition risk (National Builders) | Medium / high | Large competitors with more capital can exert pressure on pricing and land acquisition costs. |
| Business quality | Strong | NVR's land-light, capital-efficient model provides a durable structural advantage in the industry. |
| Dividend income | Low / none | Investors looking for steady income will not find a dividend-paying instrument here. |
| Execution risk | Medium | The business relies on managing complex supply chains and construction timelines effectively. |
Price Behavior
Downtrend
The stock has experienced a sustained decline in price over recent periods.
Smooth
The stock has moved along a generally orderly path with only modest fluctuations.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 32.23% | Avg. Invested days 57 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  4.0 | Stock Returns Performance  3.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/23/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Large-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 15.95B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 16.54 | 1Y Target Price 6262 |
Price to earnings Ratio 16.54 | 1Y Target Price 6262 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 45.9K shares | Beta 0.9 | 52 Weeks Range 5501.01 - 8200.00 | Updated Date 10/25/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 5501.01 - 8200.00 | Updated Date 10/25/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) - | Basic EPS (TTM) 361.76 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Homebuilding | Construction and sale of single-family, townhome, and condominium units. | This is the primary revenue engine, where NVR sells finished homes to consumers. |
| Mortgage Banking | Origination and sale of mortgage loans to home buyers. | A secondary stream that adds profit per home sale and increases closing efficiency. |
| Geography | Primary operations across the Eastern United States. | The company is focused on specific, high-density residential markets in the East. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Earnings Date
Report Date 2026-10-22 | When Before Market | Estimate 106.11 | Actual 89.45 |
Profitability
Profit Margin 11.12% | Operating Margin (TTM) 14.11% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 15.09% | Return on Equity (TTM) 28.3% |
Valuation
Trailing PE 16.54 | Forward PE 14.66 | Enterprise Value 16.39B | Price to Sales(TTM) 1.7 |
Enterprise Value 16.39B | Price to Sales(TTM) 1.7 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 1.72 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 10.66 | Shares Outstanding 2.66M | Shares Floating 2.60M |
Shares Outstanding 2.66M | Shares Floating 2.60M | ||
Percent Insiders 5.59 | Percent Institutions 93.07 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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