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Upturn AI Summary - About
PBF Energy Inc(PBF)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for PBF
10/12/2026: PBF (5-star) is a STRONG-BUY. BUY for 72 days. Simulated Profits (77.64%). Updated daily EoD!
PBF Energy is a prominent independent petroleum refiner that operates critical infrastructure to turn crude oil into essential fuels. The company holds a solid position in several key regional US markets, benefiting from its logistical integration and ability to process varied crude feedstocks. Its primary investment story hinges on cyclical margin opportunities and a strategic pivot toward renewable diesel production to address the energy transition. However, investors must consider high commodity price volatility, significant regulatory and environmental risks, and the long-term decline in demand for traditional fuels. PBF may suit investors who understand energy market cycles, while monitoring capital allocation and renewable transition progress remains crucial.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | Growth is largely driven by M&A and cycle timing rather than steady organic expansion. |
| Momentum investor | Strong fit while signal remains positive | Stock price is highly correlated with short-term refining margin spikes. |
| Value investor | Strong fit | The stock often trades at low valuation multiples during the cycle peak, attracting value-oriented capital. |
| Dividend investor | Mixed fit | Dividends can be inconsistent due to the inherent cyclicality of the refining business. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | High sensitivity to commodity price volatility creates significant stock price risk. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | High | Refining margins are extremely volatile, directly impacting earnings. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | The stock's valuation is often compressed due to cyclical concerns. |
| Competition risk (Refining margin competition) | Medium / high | Intense competition from larger integrated players affects pricing power. |
| Business quality | Medium | The business model relies on heavy physical assets that require constant maintenance. |
| Dividend income | Medium | Payouts fluctuate with cash flow, reducing reliability for income seekers. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Operational disruptions at major refinery sites can significantly hamper results. |
Price Behavior
Hockey-Stick Growth
The stock demonstrates a Hockey-Stick Growth price path pattern.
Choppy
The stock has experienced frequent reversals and pronounced short-term price swings.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 79.6% | Avg. Invested days 31 | Today’s Advisory Strong Buy |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  3.0 | Stock Returns Performance  4.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/12/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Mid-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 9.99B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 7.42 | 1Y Target Price 79.62 |
Price to earnings Ratio 7.42 | 1Y Target Price 79.62 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 3.7M shares | Beta 0.17 | 52 Weeks Range 25.16 - 89.48 | Updated Date 10/11/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 25.16 - 89.48 | Updated Date 10/11/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 1.23% | Basic EPS (TTM) 11.36 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Refining | Processing crude oil into fuels like gasoline and diesel. | Profit is made from the difference between the cost of crude oil and the selling price of finished fuels. |
| Logistics | Pipelines, terminals, and storage. | Provides stable, fee-based revenue that supports the core refining operation. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Valuation
Trailing PE 7.42 | Forward PE 8.43 | Enterprise Value 9.97B | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.29 |
Enterprise Value 9.97B | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.29 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 0.29 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 3.75 | Shares Outstanding 118.54M | Shares Floating 102.32M |
Shares Outstanding 118.54M | Shares Floating 102.32M | ||
Percent Insiders 13.71 | Percent Institutions 90.75 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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