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Upturn AI Summary - About
SPS Commerce Inc(SPSC)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for SPSC
10/30/2026: SPSC (2-star) has a low Upturn Star Rating. Not recommended to BUY.
SPS Commerce is a leading provider of cloud-based supply chain management software that facilitates communication between retailers and their suppliers. The company is known for its strong recurring revenue model and the network effects created by its vast, neutral platform. Its primary growth opportunity lies in expanding its footprint globally and adding advanced analytics to its core services. However, it faces risks from potential consolidation in the retail industry and competition from larger enterprise software providers. The stock may suit growth-oriented investors who prioritize high recurring revenue, provided they are comfortable with the valuation volatility often found in the software sector.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Strong fit | The company displays consistent high revenue growth and a scalable SaaS model. |
| Momentum investor | Mixed fit | Momentum depends on current market sentiment and technical trends regarding software stocks. |
| Value investor | Weak fit | The stock typically trades at high valuation multiples common to growth-stage software companies. |
| Dividend investor | Weak fit | SPS Commerce does not pay a dividend, focusing instead on reinvesting for growth. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | High valuation multiples and the volatility associated with growth software stocks do not align with low-risk profiles. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | Medium / high | High growth stocks are prone to sharp price movements based on earnings results. |
| Valuation risk | High | Premium multiples mean the stock is sensitive to interest rate changes and growth slowdowns. |
| Competition risk (ERP incumbents) | Medium | Large software companies may attempt to bundle supply chain services with ERP packages. |
| Business quality | Strong | The company benefits from high switching costs and strong recurring revenue. |
| Dividend income | Low / none | Income-focused investors will not find yield here. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Maintaining growth requires constant integration and innovation across an evolving retail landscape. |
Price Behavior
Strong Uptrend
The stock has maintained a strong upward price trend across the last three quarters.
Moderately Choppy
The stock has experienced noticeable price swings while retaining some directional structure.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 6.92% | Avg. Invested days 39 | Today’s Advisory WEAK BUY |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  3.0 | Stock Returns Performance  2.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/30/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Mid-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 2.94B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 37.05 | 1Y Target Price 81.55 |
Price to earnings Ratio 37.05 | 1Y Target Price 81.55 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 487.8K shares | Beta 0.62 | 52 Weeks Range 49.04 - 96.54 | Updated Date 11/01/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 49.04 - 96.54 | Updated Date 11/01/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) - | Basic EPS (TTM) 2.24 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Recurring Subscription Revenue | Monthly/annual fees for access to the Retail Network platform and analytics modules. | Most of the company's money comes from predictable, ongoing subscription fees. |
| Professional Services | Implementation, training, and configuration services for new clients. | A smaller portion of revenue comes from helping new customers get set up on the platform. |
Earnings Date
Report Date 2026-10-29 | When After Market | Estimate 0.91 | Actual 1.05 |
Profitability
Profit Margin 10.65% | Operating Margin (TTM) 20.2% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 7.15% | Return on Equity (TTM) 8.79% |
Valuation
Trailing PE 37.05 | Forward PE 68.03 | Enterprise Value 2.76B | Price to Sales(TTM) 3.77 |
Enterprise Value 2.76B | Price to Sales(TTM) 3.77 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 3.54 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 14.32 | Shares Outstanding 35.44M | Shares Floating 35.00M |
Shares Outstanding 35.44M | Shares Floating 35.00M | ||
Percent Insiders 1.44 | Percent Institutions 116.56 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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