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Upturn AI Summary - About
Toyota Motor Corporation ADR(TM)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for TM
10/09/2026: TM (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
Toyota Motor Corporation is a major global automotive manufacturer known for its strong manufacturing efficiency and reliable, diverse vehicle lineup. The company holds a leading position in the hybrid market, which has historically provided stable margins during the industry's gradual shift toward electrification. Its primary investment story hinges on successfully scaling its new battery-electric vehicle series and future solid-state battery technology. However, the company faces significant risks from agile pure-play EV competitors and the high costs of maintaining traditional production facilities. Toyota is generally a suitable candidate for value and dividend-oriented investors seeking defensive exposure, while developments in its electric vehicle production and battery advancements should be closely monitored.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | Toyota is a mature company prioritizing stability and dividends over the aggressive, high-risk growth seen in pure EV startups. |
| Momentum investor | Weak fit | The stock tends to trade based on long-term macro trends and cyclical automotive patterns rather than short-term price momentum. |
| Value investor | Strong fit | Toyota is often viewed as a value play due to its massive asset base, market position, and relatively conservative valuation multiples. |
| Dividend investor | Strong fit | The company provides a reliable and consistent dividend stream suitable for income-focused portfolios. |
| Low-risk investor | Strong fit | Its solid balance sheet and global brand strength make it a relatively defensive option within the cyclical automotive sector. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | Medium | Automotive demand is cyclical and influenced by global economic conditions and interest rates. |
| Valuation risk | Low | Toyota is generally traded at moderate multiples reflecting its mature status. |
| Competition risk (EV Transition) | High | The failure to scale full electric vehicles as quickly as competitors like Tesla (TSLA) could erode market share. |
| Business quality | Strong | Toyota’s manufacturing process and brand equity represent a high-quality, durable competitive advantage. |
| Dividend income | Medium / high | Dividends are reliable but sensitive to the company’s massive capital expenditure requirements. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Successfully transitioning a massive global manufacturing footprint to electrified platforms is a significant operational challenge. |
Price Behavior
Downtrend
The stock has experienced a sustained decline in price over recent periods.
Smooth
The stock has moved along a generally orderly path with only modest fluctuations.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -0.68% | Avg. Invested days 37 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  3.0 | Stock Returns Performance  1.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/09/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Large-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 219.43B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 8.14 | 1Y Target Price 234.08 |
Price to earnings Ratio 8.14 | 1Y Target Price 234.08 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 322.8K shares | Beta 0.38 | 52 Weeks Range 163.30 - 240.92 | Updated Date 10/10/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 163.30 - 240.92 | Updated Date 10/10/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 3.38% | Basic EPS (TTM) 22.76 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Automotive Sales | Global sales of Toyota, Lexus, and Daihatsu branded vehicles. | This is the primary engine of revenue; demand for cars directly impacts top-line growth. |
| Financial Services | Loans, leases, and insurance products for car buyers. | This provides a steady, recurring income stream that stabilizes the cyclical nature of vehicle sales. |
| Geography (North America) | Vehicle sales and operations in the US, Canada, and Mexico. | The US is a major profit contributor; regional demand trends here significantly impact the bottom line. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Valuation
Trailing PE 8.14 | Forward PE 10.94 | Enterprise Value 421.83B | Price to Sales(TTM) - |
Enterprise Value 421.83B | Price to Sales(TTM) - | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 1.28 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 7.65 | Shares Outstanding 1.18B | Shares Floating 17.47B |
Shares Outstanding 1.18B | Shares Floating 17.47B | ||
Percent Insiders - | Percent Institutions 2.23 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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