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Upturn AI Summary - About
Baytex Energy Corp(BTE)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for BTE
10/28/2026: BTE (3-star) is a STRONG-BUY. BUY for 10 days. Simulated Profits (5.81%). Updated daily EoD!
Baytex Energy Corp is a mid-sized oil and gas producer with operations in Western Canada and the US Eagle Ford shale. The company has strengthened its competitive position through strategic acquisitions, which provide a balanced mix of thermal heavy oil and higher-margin light oil assets. Its primary growth opportunity lies in optimizing these assets to generate free cash flow and reduce debt. Key risks include significant commodity price volatility, high leverage from past acquisitions, and regulatory challenges related to emissions. The stock may suit value-oriented investors comfortable with energy sector volatility, and stakeholders should monitor debt reduction progress and oil price differentials.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | The company is focused more on capital discipline and debt reduction than aggressive production expansion. |
| Momentum investor | Strong fit while signal remains positive | Momentum investors may favor the stock during periods of rising oil prices when energy sector volatility spikes. |
| Value investor | Strong fit | The company often trades at low valuation multiples typical of the energy sector, offering potential value for contrarian investors. |
| Dividend investor | Mixed fit | The dividend is subject to commodity price volatility, making it less reliable for income-focused investors. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | The inherent volatility of oil prices makes this a high-risk equity unsuitable for low-risk portfolios. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | High | Revenue and profitability are directly tied to unpredictable global oil and gas prices. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | The stock can be prone to sector-wide sentiment shifts regardless of individual company performance. |
| Competition risk (Commodity producers) | Medium / high | Larger, more diversified producers can sustain operations through price troughs more effectively than Baytex. |
| Business quality | Medium | While the asset base is stable, the necessity of constant capital reinvestment limits free cash flow certainty. |
| Dividend income | Medium | Dividends are variable and not guaranteed, depending on commodity price environment and debt levels. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Integrating major acquisitions like Ranger Oil involves operational complexity and debt management requirements. |
Price Behavior
Strong Uptrend
The stock has maintained a strong upward price trend across the last three quarters.
Moderately Choppy
The stock has experienced noticeable price swings while retaining some directional structure.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 6.3% | Avg. Invested days 32 | Today’s Advisory Strong Buy |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  2.0 | Stock Returns Performance  2.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/28/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Mid-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 3.82B USD | Price to earnings Ratio - | 1Y Target Price 6.69 |
Price to earnings Ratio - | 1Y Target Price 6.69 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 19.7M shares | Beta 0.86 | 52 Weeks Range 2.19 - 5.61 | Updated Date 10/28/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 2.19 - 5.61 | Updated Date 10/28/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 1.66% | Basic EPS (TTM) -0.38 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Exploration & Production (Canada) | Production of crude oil and natural gas from the Viking, Duvernay, and Lloydminster assets. | This is the core of their business, generating cash flow from domestic Canadian assets. |
| Exploration & Production (USA) | Production of light oil and liquids from the Eagle Ford asset in Texas. | Provides geographic diversification and adds exposure to higher-margin light oil. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Earnings Date
Report Date 2026-11-05 | When After Market | Estimate 0.13 | Actual - |
Profitability
Profit Margin -42.86% | Operating Margin (TTM) 40.84% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 0.86% | Return on Equity (TTM) -8.77% |
Valuation
Trailing PE - | Forward PE 17.54 | Enterprise Value 3.39B | Price to Sales(TTM) 2.28 |
Enterprise Value 3.39B | Price to Sales(TTM) 2.28 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 2.48 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 5.89 | Shares Outstanding 699.20M | Shares Floating 696.21M |
Shares Outstanding 699.20M | Shares Floating 696.21M | ||
Percent Insiders 0.62 | Percent Institutions 61.85 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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