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HF Sinclair Corp(DINO)
Top performer 
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for DINO
10/20/2026: DINO (5-star) is a STRONG-BUY. BUY for 74 days. Simulated Profits (60.37%). Updated daily EoD!
HF Sinclair Corp is an independent US-based energy company primarily engaged in petroleum refining and the production of specialty lubricants. The company benefits from a solid regional refining footprint and high-margin specialty segments that help diversify its income away from traditional fuels. Its primary growth opportunity lies in scaling its renewable diesel operations to meet changing energy demands. However, investors must consider risks related to commodity price volatility, the capital-intensive nature of its refining assets, and long-term regulatory pressure on fossil fuels. The stock may suit value or dividend-focused investors who can tolerate cyclical volatility, and stakeholders should monitor refining margins and progress on renewable initiatives.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Weak fit | The company operates in a mature, cyclical industry rather than a high-growth sector. |
| Momentum investor | Mixed fit | The stock can show momentum during periods of high refining margins, but this is highly conditional on external energy prices. |
| Value investor | Strong fit | The company often trades at reasonable valuations relative to its cash flow potential in favorable markets. |
| Dividend investor | Strong fit | The company has a history of prioritizing stable dividends and capital returns to shareholders. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | High sensitivity to commodity price cycles introduces inherent volatility that may not suit risk-averse investors. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | High | Profitability is directly linked to fluctuating crude oil and refined product prices. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | The stock valuation can swing rapidly based on industry margin expectations. |
| Competition risk (Refining margins) | Medium / high | Large integrated players can exert pressure on regional refining margins. |
| Business quality | Medium | The business is dependent on aging, capital-intensive infrastructure. |
| Dividend income | Medium / high | Dividends are generally stable but can be impacted by severe industry downturns. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Integrating and optimizing complex refinery assets requires significant operational expertise. |
Price Behavior
Hockey-Stick Growth
The stock demonstrates a Hockey-Stick Growth price path pattern.
Moderately Choppy
The stock has experienced noticeable price swings while retaining some directional structure.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 112.26% | Avg. Invested days 50 | Today’s Advisory Strong Buy |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  3.0 | Stock Returns Performance  5.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/20/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Large-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 22.12B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 11.85 | 1Y Target Price 120.07 |
Price to earnings Ratio 11.85 | 1Y Target Price 120.07 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 2.6M shares | Beta 0.71 | 52 Weeks Range 44.66 - 129.37 | Updated Date 10/19/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 44.66 - 129.37 | Updated Date 10/19/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 1.60% | Basic EPS (TTM) 10.5 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Refining | Manufacturing gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. | This is the core engine; profit is made when the price of refined products is much higher than the cost of crude oil. |
| Renewables | Production of renewable diesel and sustainable fuels. | A newer segment aimed at capturing margins from environmental credit programs. |
| Lubricants | Specialty base oils and lubricants for industrial/auto use. | Provides a more stable, higher-margin revenue stream compared to volatile transportation fuels. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Earnings Date
Report Date 2026-10-28 | When Before Market | Estimate 7.82 | Actual - |
Profitability
Profit Margin 6.13% | Operating Margin (TTM) 11.69% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 9.16% | Return on Equity (TTM) 19.5% |
Valuation
Trailing PE 11.85 | Forward PE 9.97 | Enterprise Value 20.15B | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.71 |
Enterprise Value 20.15B | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.71 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 0.65 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 5.62 | Shares Outstanding 177.78M | Shares Floating 167.92M |
Shares Outstanding 177.78M | Shares Floating 167.92M | ||
Percent Insiders 5.49 | Percent Institutions 89.15 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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