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Expedia Group Inc.(EXPE)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for EXPE
11/09/2026: EXPE (4-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
Expedia Group is a major player in the global online travel market, operating through a diversified portfolio of consumer brands and a growing B2B technology business. The company's primary strength lies in its scale and ongoing transition to a unified technology platform, which aims to improve operational efficiency and feature deployment. The main investment story centers on the scaling of its B2B segment and increased personalization through AI. However, risks remain regarding fierce competition from Booking Holdings and Airbnb, as well as reliance on paid search traffic. This stock may suit investors seeking exposure to the travel cycle who are comfortable with the risks of a competitive digital marketplace.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | The company offers moderate growth potential tied to travel demand cycles and B2B technology scaling. |
| Momentum investor | Strong fit while signal remains positive | Momentum investors may find value during periods of strong sector rotation into travel-related equities. |
| Value investor | Strong fit | The stock often trades at valuations that may appear attractive relative to cash flow generation. |
| Dividend investor | Weak fit | The company does not pay a meaningful regular dividend. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | Exposure to travel industry volatility and cyclical consumer spending patterns creates significant price sensitivity. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | Medium / high | Travel stocks are highly sensitive to macroeconomic shifts and seasonal demand fluctuations. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | Market expectations for growth can cause significant repricing if quarterly targets are missed. |
| Competition risk (Digital Travel Platforms) | High | Aggressive pricing and marketing by competitors like Booking and Airbnb pressure margins. |
| Business quality | Medium / high | The platform model is highly scalable but dependent on third-party inventory and search traffic. |
| Dividend income | Low / none | Investors seeking income will not find this an appropriate vehicle. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Successfully managing the transition to a single technology stack is critical for long-term efficiency. |
Price Behavior
Rolling Over
The price momentum is slowing down and beginning to turn downward.
Choppy
The stock has experienced frequent reversals and pronounced short-term price swings.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 67.73% | Avg. Invested days 53 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  3.0 | Stock Returns Performance  3.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 11/09/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Large-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 30.74B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 15.2 | 1Y Target Price 333.14 |
Price to earnings Ratio 15.2 | 1Y Target Price 333.14 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 1.9M shares | Beta 1.39 | 52 Weeks Range 184.28 - 341.51 | Updated Date 11/08/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 184.28 - 341.51 | Updated Date 11/08/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 0.68% | Basic EPS (TTM) 17.06 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Merchant Model | Collecting payments from travelers and paying suppliers (hotels, etc.), earning a margin. | The company acts as the merchant of record for many bookings. |
| Agency Model | Charging a commission for facilitating bookings between travelers and service providers. | The company collects a fee for every successful transaction. |
| Advertising & Media | Revenue from search placements and promotional advertising on its platforms. | Provides additional monetization through marketing services for travel partners. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Earnings Date
Report Date 2026-11-04 | When After Market | Estimate 8.09 | Actual 8.6 |
Profitability
Profit Margin 12.99% | Operating Margin (TTM) 27.83% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 7.18% | Return on Equity (TTM) 76.75% |
Valuation
Trailing PE 15.2 | Forward PE 11.3 | Enterprise Value 30.86B | Price to Sales(TTM) 1.89 |
Enterprise Value 30.86B | Price to Sales(TTM) 1.89 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 1.9 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 7.98 | Shares Outstanding 113.05M | Shares Floating 112.10M |
Shares Outstanding 113.05M | Shares Floating 112.10M | ||
Percent Insiders 0.62 | Percent Institutions 108.41 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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