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Upturn AI Summary - About
Green Brick Partners Inc(GRBK)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for GRBK
11/13/2026: GRBK (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
Green Brick Partners is a homebuilding and land development company primarily focused on high-growth regions in the southeastern United States. The company uses a decentralized partnership model to operate various brands, which has historically allowed for effective, localized management and strong profit margins. Its primary growth story revolves around capturing demographic-driven housing demand in key Sunbelt markets. However, investors must consider risks related to geographic concentration, interest rate sensitivity, and intense competition from much larger national homebuilders. This stock may suit investors seeking long-term growth in the housing sector, provided they monitor interest rate trends and regional economic health closely.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Strong fit | The company has demonstrated consistent earnings and revenue growth within the high-demand residential sector. |
| Momentum investor | Mixed fit | This is a conditional fit depending on housing market strength and overall sector momentum. |
| Value investor | Mixed fit | The valuation can vary significantly based on interest rate cycles and market sentiment regarding the housing sector. |
| Dividend investor | Weak fit | The company does not currently pay a regular dividend, prioritizing growth capital instead. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | Homebuilding stocks are inherently cyclical and subject to high volatility related to interest rates and economic health. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | Medium / high | Construction stocks are sensitive to interest rate fluctuations and housing market cycles. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | Earnings multiples can compress quickly if market sentiment on the housing outlook turns negative. |
| Competition risk (National homebuilder dominance) | Medium / high | Large national builders have greater economies of scale in procurement and financing. |
| Business quality | Medium / high | The company has a strong, proven business model, though geographic concentration is a factor. |
| Dividend income | Low / none | The lack of a dividend makes this stock unsuitable for income-focused portfolios. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Successful growth depends on efficient land development and managing construction costs. |
Key Highlights
Company Size Mid-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 2.59B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 9.81 | 1Y Target Price 62 |
Price to earnings Ratio 9.81 | 1Y Target Price 62 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 334.6K shares | Beta 1.69 | 52 Weeks Range 59.12 - 83.18 | Updated Date 11/13/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 59.12 - 83.18 | Updated Date 11/13/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) - | Basic EPS (TTM) 6.22 |
Sector & Industry Intelligence
Sector
Consumer Cyclical
Constructive- Sentiment
- Strong Bullish
- Momentum
- BUY Breadth Improving
- BUY participation
- 67.4%
- Active BUY / eligible
- 31 / 46
- 30-Day BUY Count Change
- +23
- Market state
- Strong Bullish
More qualifying stocks are receiving or maintaining BUY advisories, indicating improving market participation.
Industry
Residential Construction
- BUY participation
- 100.0%
- Active BUY / eligible
- 1 / 1
- 30-Day BUY Count Change
- +1
Eligible universe: 1 stock.
Sector signal summarizes BUY breadth conditions for the sector. It does not override this stock’s BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory.
Price Behavior
Downtrend
The stock has experienced a sustained decline in price over recent periods.
Smooth
The stock has moved along a generally orderly path with only modest fluctuations.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -8.85% | Avg. Invested days 38 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  3.0 | Stock Returns Performance  1.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 11/13/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Homebuilding Operations | Construction and sale of single-family, multi-family, and townhome units. | This is the primary revenue driver, reflecting actual home sales. |
| Land Development | Developing residential lots for its own builders and third-party buyers. | This improves margins by controlling the supply chain for housing construction. |
| Geography: Texas / Southeast | Primary operations in Dallas-Fort Worth, Atlanta, and other growing Southern markets. | Performance is highly tied to regional economic health and population migration patterns. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Earnings Date
Report Date 2026-10-28 | When After Market | Estimate 1.38 | Actual 1.35 |
Profitability
Profit Margin 14.16% | Operating Margin (TTM) 17.92% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 8.37% | Return on Equity (TTM) 14.75% |
Valuation
Trailing PE 9.81 | Forward PE 13.23 | Enterprise Value 2.88B | Price to Sales(TTM) 1.34 |
Enterprise Value 2.88B | Price to Sales(TTM) 1.34 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 1.49 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 8.46 | Shares Outstanding 42.43M | Shares Floating 29.34M |
Shares Outstanding 42.43M | Shares Floating 29.34M | ||
Percent Insiders 8.51 | Percent Institutions 84.55 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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