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Upturn AI Summary - About
Ollie\'s Bargain Outlet Hldg(OLLI)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for OLLI
10/12/2026: OLLI (1-star) has a low Upturn Star Rating. Not recommended to BUY.
Ollie's Bargain Outlet is a U.S.-based extreme-value retailer that focuses on selling brand-name closeout merchandise. The company has a strong, proven business model driven by a popular 'treasure hunt' shopping experience and a growing loyalty program. Its primary growth opportunity lies in its disciplined, long-term plan to expand its store footprint across new territories. However, the company faces risks from intense competition in the discount space and potential volatility in sourcing excess inventory. The stock is best suited for growth-oriented investors who are comfortable with retail-sector risks and want to monitor the company's ability to maintain margins while scaling its national presence.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Strong fit | The company maintains a clear runway for expansion through new store openings in the U.S. market. |
| Momentum investor | Mixed fit | The stock can be sensitive to quarterly execution and supply chain trends. |
| Value investor | Strong fit while signal remains positive | The business model relies on buying low and selling at discount, which appeals to value-oriented metrics. |
| Dividend investor | Weak fit | Ollie's does not pay a dividend, making it unsuitable for income-focused portfolios. |
| Low-risk investor | Mixed fit | Retail volatility and inventory risks may lead to price fluctuations. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | Medium / high | Retail stocks often react sharply to quarterly earnings surprises. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | Investors must weigh the company's growth potential against current trading multiples. |
| Competition risk (Discount retail) | High | Large incumbents and e-commerce players exert constant pressure on pricing and inventory. |
| Business quality | Strong | The company has a proven, repeatable model for growth. |
| Dividend income | Low / none | There is no dividend component to total return for shareholders. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Successfully opening and scaling new stores remains critical to the growth narrative. |
Price Behavior
Steep Decline
The stock price has dropped sharply with strong downward pressure.
Moderately Choppy
The stock has experienced noticeable price swings while retaining some directional structure.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 20.59% | Avg. Invested days 42 | Today’s Advisory Consider higher Upturn Star rating |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  3.0 | Stock Returns Performance  3.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/12/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Mid-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 5.07B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 19.09 | 1Y Target Price 99.93 |
Price to earnings Ratio 19.09 | 1Y Target Price 99.93 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 2.0M shares | Beta 0.41 | 52 Weeks Range 60.29 - 133.28 | Updated Date 10/11/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 60.29 - 133.28 | Updated Date 10/11/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) - | Basic EPS (TTM) 4.47 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Retail Discount Sales | Sale of closeout and bargain goods in brick-and-mortar stores. | Revenue is earned by sourcing goods cheaply and selling them at low prices to consumers seeking value. |
Valuation
Trailing PE 19.09 | Forward PE 19.23 | Enterprise Value 5.45B | Price to Sales(TTM) 1.81 |
Enterprise Value 5.45B | Price to Sales(TTM) 1.81 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 1.95 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 12.89 | Shares Outstanding 59.40M | Shares Floating 59.14M |
Shares Outstanding 59.40M | Shares Floating 59.14M | ||
Percent Insiders 0.34 | Percent Institutions 121.41 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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