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Upturn AI Summary - About
Par Pacific Holdings Inc(PARR)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for PARR
10/16/2026: PARR (3-star) is a STRONG-BUY. BUY for 29 days. Simulated Profits (1.63%). Updated daily EoD!
Par Pacific Holdings Inc is an energy company focused on refining and marketing petroleum products in geographically isolated regions, primarily Hawaii and the Western US. Its primary strength lies in its integrated network of refineries and retail assets that benefit from reduced competition in its localized markets. While the company offers exposure to energy market cycles, it lacks a consistent dividend policy, making it more suitable for investors focused on growth and cyclical recovery. Key risks include heavy reliance on refining margins, vulnerability to environmental regulations, and potential volatility in fuel demand. Investors should monitor the progress of renewable energy initiatives and the company's ability to maintain high operational margins.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | Growth is largely tied to M&A and industry cycles rather than consistent, scalable organic growth. |
| Momentum investor | Strong fit while signal remains positive | The stock can experience significant momentum during periods of expanding refining margins. |
| Value investor | Strong fit | Refining stocks are often valued based on their assets, which can look attractive during market downturns. |
| Dividend investor | Weak fit | The company does not currently offer a meaningful dividend, prioritizing capital allocation for growth. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | The business is highly exposed to volatile commodity price fluctuations and cyclical refining spreads. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | High | Earnings are heavily dependent on unpredictable crude oil prices and crack spreads. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | Market pricing often fluctuates significantly based on changing macro sentiment toward energy. |
| Competition risk (Refining and Marketing) | Medium | Competitive pressure from larger national players can impact regional margins. |
| Business quality | Medium | The business model is solid in its niche but sensitive to macro-economic cycles. |
| Dividend income | Low / none | The company does not provide a regular dividend stream. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Success depends on the integration of acquired assets and safe, efficient refinery operations. |
Price Behavior
Strong Uptrend
The stock has maintained a strong upward price trend across the last three quarters.
Choppy
The stock has experienced frequent reversals and pronounced short-term price swings.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 67.43% | Avg. Invested days 29 | Today’s Advisory Regular Buy |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  2.0 | Stock Returns Performance  3.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/16/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Mid-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 4.18B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 4.87 | 1Y Target Price 93.29 |
Price to earnings Ratio 4.87 | 1Y Target Price 93.29 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 918.3K shares | Beta 0.75 | 52 Weeks Range 34.37 - 90.74 | Updated Date 10/18/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 34.37 - 90.74 | Updated Date 10/18/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) - | Basic EPS (TTM) 17.13 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Refining | Processing crude oil into finished fuel products at refineries in Hawaii and the mainland. | This is the core engine; profit is made when the price of finished fuel is much higher than the cost of crude oil. |
| Retail | Selling fuel and convenience items through proprietary retail locations. | Provides a steadier, more predictable revenue stream than refining, acting as a natural hedge. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Valuation
Trailing PE 4.87 | Forward PE 10.54 | Enterprise Value 4.80B | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.48 |
Enterprise Value 4.80B | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.48 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 0.56 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 3.65 | Shares Outstanding 50.10M | Shares Floating 48.73M |
Shares Outstanding 50.10M | Shares Floating 48.73M | ||
Percent Insiders 2.63 | Percent Institutions 104.03 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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