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Upturn AI Summary - About
Toll Brothers Inc(TOL)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for TOL
11/06/2026: TOL (3-star) is a STRONG-BUY. BUY for 6 days. Simulated Profits (4.53%). Updated daily EoD!
Toll Brothers Inc is a prominent U.S. homebuilder focusing on the luxury residential market. The company benefits from a strong brand presence and geographic diversity, which has historically helped it navigate the cyclical nature of the housing industry. Its strategic shift toward rental apartment development offers a degree of income diversification beyond traditional home sales. However, the business remains sensitive to macroeconomic factors like interest rates and discretionary spending levels. Investors should monitor mortgage rate trends, land development costs, and the ongoing growth of the apartment segment to assess future performance. The stock may suit those interested in long-term exposure to the luxury housing sector.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | Toll Brothers offers growth potential linked to the luxury housing cycle, though growth can be cyclical. |
| Momentum investor | Strong fit while signal remains positive | The stock can show strong momentum during housing market upswings. |
| Value investor | Strong fit | The stock often trades at reasonable multiples compared to its long-term asset value and land holdings. |
| Dividend investor | Mixed fit | Provides a modest dividend, though it is not a high-yield income play. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | The stock is susceptible to economic cycles and interest rate volatility. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | Medium / high | Homebuilder stocks react sharply to mortgage rate changes and economic sentiment. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | While often reasonably priced, market cyclicality can impact price-to-book ratios. |
| Competition risk (Volume Builders) | Medium | Larger volume builders can put pressure on land pricing and labor availability. |
| Business quality | Strong | The company has a well-regarded reputation and high-quality land bank assets. |
| Dividend income | Low | Dividends are reliable but not the primary driver of total return. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Complex multi-year development projects require careful cost and timeline management. |
Price Behavior
Downtrend
The stock has experienced a sustained decline in price over recent periods.
Smooth
The stock has moved along a generally orderly path with only modest fluctuations.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 75.72% | Avg. Invested days 59 | Today’s Advisory Strong Buy |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  3.0 | Stock Returns Performance  4.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 11/06/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Large-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 14.06B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 12.29 | 1Y Target Price 169.11 |
Price to earnings Ratio 12.29 | 1Y Target Price 169.11 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 1.1M shares | Beta 1.3 | 52 Weeks Range 122.69 - 167.43 | Updated Date 11/08/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 122.69 - 167.43 | Updated Date 11/08/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 0.66% | Basic EPS (TTM) 12.41 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Home Building Operations | Sale of single-family, attached, and luxury homes. | This is the primary revenue engine, sensitive to housing demand and interest rates. |
| Rental Operations | Toll Brothers Apartment Living and Campus Living revenue. | Provides a secondary stream of recurring rental income, diversifying the business model. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Valuation
Trailing PE 12.29 | Forward PE 11.25 | Enterprise Value 15.91B | Price to Sales(TTM) 1.31 |
Enterprise Value 15.91B | Price to Sales(TTM) 1.31 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 1.48 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 10.17 | Shares Outstanding 92.15M | Shares Floating 91.38M |
Shares Outstanding 92.15M | Shares Floating 91.38M | ||
Percent Insiders 0.74 | Percent Institutions 95.77 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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