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Upturn AI Summary - About
Toll Brothers Inc(TOL)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for TOL
10/08/2026: TOL (3-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
Toll Brothers is a leading US builder focused on the luxury residential market, recognized for its premium design and move-up home communities. The company is known for maintaining strong margins by targeting affluent buyers who are often less price-sensitive than those in the mass market. Its growth strategy revolves around expanding its national footprint and diversifying into stable, rental-based apartment living. Key risks include intense sensitivity to mortgage interest rates and cyclical economic downturns that can impact high-end discretionary spending. Toll Brothers may suit growth-oriented investors looking for exposure to the luxury housing segment, though it is best monitored alongside interest rate trends and housing affordability metrics.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Strong fit | The company's focus on premium, higher-margin homes offers consistent growth potential within the luxury segment. |
| Momentum investor | Mixed fit | Momentum is conditional on positive housing market trends and an upturn signal in industry-wide housing indicators. |
| Value investor | Strong fit | Toll Brothers often trades at attractive valuation multiples relative to its asset quality and earnings potential. |
| Dividend investor | Mixed fit | The company pays a dividend but is primarily focused on capital appreciation rather than high-yield income. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | Homebuilding stocks are inherently cyclical and prone to significant price volatility based on interest rates. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | High | The stock is highly sensitive to macroeconomic shifts and interest rate changes. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | Market sentiment toward housing cycles can lead to sudden shifts in the stock's valuation multiple. |
| Competition risk (Volume builders) | Medium / high | Competition from large-scale builders like DHI and LEN can compress margins if they encroach on higher-end markets. |
| Business quality | Strong | Toll Brothers maintains a reputation for high-quality construction and design, which creates a competitive moat. |
| Dividend income | Low | Dividends are reliable but represent a small portion of the total return profile. |
| Execution risk | Medium | The complexity of luxury home design and long development timelines require high precision in execution. |
Price Behavior
Rolling Over
The price momentum is slowing down and beginning to turn downward.
Smooth
The stock has moved along a generally orderly path with only modest fluctuations.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 68.13% | Avg. Invested days 68 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  3.0 | Stock Returns Performance  3.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/08/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Large-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 12.42B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 10.86 | 1Y Target Price 170.88 |
Price to earnings Ratio 10.86 | 1Y Target Price 170.88 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 1.1M shares | Beta 1.3 | 52 Weeks Range 122.93 - 167.75 | Updated Date 10/08/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 122.93 - 167.75 | Updated Date 10/08/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 0.76% | Basic EPS (TTM) 12.41 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Luxury Homebuilding | Construction and sale of premium single-family and attached homes. | This is the company's core engine, generating most revenue from home sales across US luxury markets. |
| Apartment Living | Development and management of rental properties. | Provides stable, recurring rental income that offsets the cyclicality of home sales. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Valuation
Trailing PE 10.86 | Forward PE 9.97 | Enterprise Value 14.32B | Price to Sales(TTM) 1.15 |
Enterprise Value 14.32B | Price to Sales(TTM) 1.15 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 1.33 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 9.15 | Shares Outstanding 92.15M | Shares Floating 91.38M |
Shares Outstanding 92.15M | Shares Floating 91.38M | ||
Percent Insiders 0.74 | Percent Institutions 96.26 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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