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Upturn AI Summary - About
B&G Foods Inc(BGS)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for BGS
11/05/2026: BGS (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
B&G Foods is a mid-cap packaged food company known for maintaining a diverse portfolio of legacy brands like Green Giant and Cream of Wheat. The company has historically pursued growth through strategic acquisitions, which has built a wide distribution footprint but also resulted in a significant debt load. Its main investment appeal lies in potential income from dividends and the possibility of portfolio optimization through asset sales. However, the company faces stiff competition from larger industry players and must navigate risks related to high leverage, inflationary pressures, and changing consumer tastes. It is generally suited for dividend-focused investors who can tolerate volatility while monitoring management's debt reduction progress.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Weak fit | The company relies more on strategic acquisitions than organic high-growth potential. |
| Momentum investor | Mixed fit | Momentum is often absent; this is a conditional fit based on a strong, sustained upturn in fundamental performance. |
| Value investor | Mixed fit | The valuation may appear attractive, but potential value traps exist due to high debt levels. |
| Dividend investor | Strong fit | The company has a history of prioritizing dividend payments, making it potentially suitable for income-focused portfolios. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | Debt-related risks and stock price volatility make this less suitable for highly risk-averse investors. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | Medium / high | The stock is susceptible to swings based on market sentiment regarding debt and food cost inflation. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | While the stock may look cheap, the underlying debt burden justifies lower valuation multiples. |
| Competition risk (Market Consolidation) | High | The company struggles to compete with larger players that possess superior scale and advertising power. |
| Business quality | Medium | The business model relies on a collection of diverse, sometimes niche brands rather than a core, dominant franchise. |
| Dividend income | Medium / high | Dividend sustainability depends on the company successfully managing debt and maintaining cash flow. |
| Execution risk | High | Integrating acquisitions and managing a complex supply chain remain primary operational challenges. |
Price Behavior
Steep Decline
The stock price has dropped sharply with strong downward pressure.
Moderately Choppy
The stock has experienced noticeable price swings while retaining some directional structure.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -63.62% | Avg. Invested days 22 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  2.0 | Stock Returns Performance  1.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 11/05/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Small-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 208.88M USD | Price to earnings Ratio - | 1Y Target Price 3.6 |
Price to earnings Ratio - | 1Y Target Price 3.6 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 2.1M shares | Beta 0.62 | 52 Weeks Range 1.99 - 5.81 | Updated Date 11/05/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 1.99 - 5.81 | Updated Date 11/05/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 27.82% | Basic EPS (TTM) -0.95 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Shelf-Stable Products | Spices, sauces, and dry goods sold to retail grocery chains. | This is the core, steady business that provides consistent pantry-staple revenue. |
| Frozen Products | Frozen vegetables and meals, primarily Green Giant. | This segment is larger but often faces higher logistical and refrigeration costs. |
| Geography | United States and Canadian markets. | The company is almost entirely focused on North American consumer demand. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Earnings Date
Report Date 2026-11-10 | When After Market | Estimate 0.15 | Actual - |
Profitability
Profit Margin -4% | Operating Margin (TTM) 11.96% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 3.9% | Return on Equity (TTM) -15.81% |
Valuation
Trailing PE - | Forward PE 5.24 | Enterprise Value 2.18B | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.12 |
Enterprise Value 2.18B | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.12 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 1.23 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 14.5 | Shares Outstanding 81.28M | Shares Floating 77.10M |
Shares Outstanding 81.28M | Shares Floating 77.10M | ||
Percent Insiders 4.86 | Percent Institutions 58.52 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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