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Upturn AI Summary - About
Hillman Solutions Corp(HLMN)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for HLMN
11/02/2026: HLMN (1-star) has a low Upturn Star Rating. Not recommended to BUY.
Hillman Solutions Corp is a prominent provider of hardware, fasteners, and automated retail kiosks, operating primarily within the North American home improvement market. The company’s primary strength lies in its unique service-centric model, where field representatives manage inventory directly in retail stores, creating a sustainable competitive moat. While the company faces risks related to retailer concentration and cyclical demand in the home improvement sector, its growing portfolio of automated kiosks offers a promising avenue for high-margin, recurring revenue. The stock may suit value-oriented investors who prioritize operational efficiency over dividends. Key developments to monitor include retail partnership renewals and the company's progress in reducing its debt load.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | The company shows steady growth potential in its robotics segment but remains tied to cyclical home improvement demand. |
| Momentum investor | Weak fit | The stock lacks the high-volatility, high-growth characteristics often favored by momentum strategies. |
| Value investor | Strong fit while signal remains positive | Hillman's market position and potential for margin expansion make it a potential candidate for value-oriented portfolios. |
| Dividend investor | Weak fit | The company does not currently pay a dividend, prioritizing debt reduction and reinvestment. |
| Low-risk investor | Mixed fit | While the business is stable and essential, market volatility and debt levels pose risks for very conservative investors. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | Medium | As a mid-cap industrial stock, it can experience fluctuations based on broader macroeconomic sentiment. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | Investors must be careful to ensure the entry price reflects long-term cash flow potential rather than short-term hype. |
| Competition risk (Consolidation/Private Label) | High | Retailers continue to expand private label offerings which could squeeze shelf space for branded hardware. |
| Business quality | Medium | The service-heavy model creates a moat but requires significant operational discipline to maintain margins. |
| Dividend income | Low / none | There is no dividend income to provide a buffer during market downturns. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Successful scaling of the digital kiosk business depends on maintaining high uptime and retail partnership agreements. |
Price Behavior
Downtrend
The stock has experienced a sustained decline in price over recent periods.
Moderately Choppy
The stock has experienced noticeable price swings while retaining some directional structure.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 14.65% | Avg. Invested days 47 | Today’s Advisory Consider higher Upturn Star rating |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  3.0 | Stock Returns Performance  2.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 11/02/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Small-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 1.52B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 39 | 1Y Target Price 11.75 |
Price to earnings Ratio 39 | 1Y Target Price 11.75 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 1.7M shares | Beta 1.42 | 52 Weeks Range 6.66 - 10.85 | Updated Date 11/01/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 6.66 - 10.85 | Updated Date 11/01/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) - | Basic EPS (TTM) 0.2 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Hardware & Protective Solutions | Fasteners, builders' hardware, and protective gear sold in retail environments. | This is the steady, traditional core of the company's business. |
| Robotics & Digital Solutions | Key-cutting machines and engraving kiosks. | This is the higher-growth segment with recurring revenue characteristics. |
| Geography: North America | Concentrated retail footprint in the United States and Canada. | The company is almost entirely focused on the North American home improvement market. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Earnings Date
Report Date 2026-11-02 | When After Market | Estimate 0.22 | Actual - |
Profitability
Profit Margin 2.57% | Operating Margin (TTM) 8.32% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 2.87% | Return on Equity (TTM) 3.39% |
Valuation
Trailing PE 39 | Forward PE 10.7 | Enterprise Value 2.28B | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.95 |
Enterprise Value 2.28B | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.95 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 1.43 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 8.89 | Shares Outstanding 194.54M | Shares Floating 192.28M |
Shares Outstanding 194.54M | Shares Floating 192.28M | ||
Percent Insiders 1.04 | Percent Institutions 103.94 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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