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Upturn AI Summary - About
MFA Financial Inc(MFA)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for MFA
10/23/2026: MFA (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
MFA Financial Inc is a mortgage REIT that focuses on acquiring and managing residential mortgage loans and securities. Its core strength lies in its long-standing experience in the credit-sensitive residential market and its ability to utilize securitization for stable financing. The primary investment story centers on capturing yields from non-agency mortgage assets while maintaining disciplined risk management. Risks include significant sensitivity to interest rate fluctuations, potential defaults in its loan portfolio, and valuation complexity. The stock may best suit income-oriented investors comfortable with the volatility inherent in financial real estate, and market participants should monitor interest rate trends and credit performance closely.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Weak fit | MFA is a yield-focused REIT rather than a high-growth capital appreciation play. |
| Momentum investor | Mixed fit | Strong fit only during periods of rapid interest rate stabilization or spread compression. |
| Value investor | Strong fit | The stock often trades at a discount to book value, appealing to value-oriented income investors. |
| Dividend investor | Strong fit | Consistent dividend distribution makes it attractive for portfolios seeking yield. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | High sensitivity to interest rates and leverage introduces volatility unsuitable for very conservative investors. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | Medium / high | Mortgage REIT stocks often experience sharp price swings based on interest rate news. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | Changes in interest rates impact the fair value of the underlying mortgage loan assets. |
| Competition risk (interest rate environment) | High | The sector faces intense competition for yield, which can compress margins. |
| Business quality | Medium | MFA has a long operating history but is inherently sensitive to external economic factors. |
| Dividend income | Medium | Dividend sustainability depends on the net interest margin achieved on assets. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Managing credit risk in the whole loan portfolio requires precise underwriting and servicing. |
Price Behavior
Downtrend
The stock has experienced a sustained decline in price over recent periods.
Smooth
The stock has moved along a generally orderly path with only modest fluctuations.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -16.24% | Avg. Invested days 36 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  3.0 | Stock Returns Performance  1.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/23/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Small-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 673.25M USD | Price to earnings Ratio 6.59 | 1Y Target Price 13.25 |
Price to earnings Ratio 6.59 | 1Y Target Price 13.25 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 2.4M shares | Beta 1.52 | 52 Weeks Range 6.38 - 9.58 | Updated Date 10/24/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 6.38 - 9.58 | Updated Date 10/24/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 21.75% | Basic EPS (TTM) 1.01 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Net Interest Income | Interest earned on mortgage assets minus the cost of borrowed funds. | The company profits from the spread between what it earns on mortgages and what it pays to borrow money. |
Valuation
Trailing PE 6.59 | Forward PE 6.16 | Enterprise Value 12.20B | Price to Sales(TTM) 2.22 |
Enterprise Value 12.20B | Price to Sales(TTM) 2.22 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 26.98 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA - | Shares Outstanding 101.09M | Shares Floating 98.61M |
Shares Outstanding 101.09M | Shares Floating 98.61M | ||
Percent Insiders 1.95 | Percent Institutions 57.15 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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