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Upturn AI Summary - About
MFA Financial Inc(MFA)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for MFA
09/25/2026: MFA (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
MFA Financial is a specialty mortgage REIT that invests in a portfolio of residential mortgage assets, including whole loans and non-Agency securities. The company has evolved from a traditional Agency-backed focus toward a credit-sensitive strategy, which supports potential for higher yields. Its main strengths include deep experience in mortgage credit underwriting and an ability to adapt to changing interest rate environments. However, investors face significant risks, including interest rate volatility, leverage sensitivity, and credit performance concerns in its loan book. This stock best suits dividend-focused investors comfortable with the inherent volatility of leveraged mortgage investments and should monitor interest rate trends and credit spreads.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Weak fit | MFA is primarily an income-oriented REIT rather than a high-growth capital appreciation play. |
| Momentum investor | Mixed fit | Momentum interest is conditional on positive trends in housing credit spreads and interest rate stability. |
| Value investor | Strong fit | Investors often look at MFA when the stock trades at a discount to book value. |
| Dividend investor | Strong fit | The company's primary appeal is its consistent dividend payout as a REIT. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | Mortgage REITs are inherently volatile due to leverage and interest rate sensitivity. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | High | The stock price is highly sensitive to interest rate changes and housing market sentiment. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | Valuation is heavily tied to book value, which can be volatile in changing rate environments. |
| Competition risk (mREIT sector) | Medium | Intense competition for attractive residential mortgage assets can compress spreads. |
| Business quality | Medium | Success depends on expert credit selection within the non-Agency loan market. |
| Dividend income | Medium / high | Dividends are dependent on distributable earnings, which are vulnerable to interest rate cycles. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Effective management of leverage and asset-liability matching is critical for profitability. |
Price Behavior
Rolling Over
The price momentum is slowing down and beginning to turn downward.
Smooth
The stock has moved along a generally orderly path with only modest fluctuations.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -15.8% | Avg. Invested days 36 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  3.0 | Stock Returns Performance  1.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 09/25/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Small-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 824.88M USD | Price to earnings Ratio 8.24 | 1Y Target Price 14 |
Price to earnings Ratio 8.24 | 1Y Target Price 14 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 1.5M shares | Beta 1.49 | 52 Weeks Range 7.86 - 10.05 | Updated Date 09/25/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 7.86 - 10.05 | Updated Date 09/25/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 17.31% | Basic EPS (TTM) 0.99 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Residential Whole Loans | Interest income from residential mortgage loans (non-QM, NPL/RPL). | The company earns money from the interest paid by homeowners on the loans it holds. |
| Securities Portfolio | Yields from non-Agency MBS and credit risk transfer securities. | The company earns interest from owning bundles of residential mortgages. |
Valuation
Trailing PE 8.24 | Forward PE 6.16 | Enterprise Value 12.35B | Price to Sales(TTM) 2.72 |
Enterprise Value 12.35B | Price to Sales(TTM) 2.72 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 26.98 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA - | Shares Outstanding 101.09M | Shares Floating 98.61M |
Shares Outstanding 101.09M | Shares Floating 98.61M | ||
Percent Insiders 1.95 | Percent Institutions 54.5 |
Upturn AI Summary
AI Summarization is directionally correct and might not be accurate.
Summarized information shown could be a few years old and not current.
Fundamental Rating based on AI could be based on old data.
AI-generated summaries may have inaccuracies (hallucinations). Please verify the information before taking action.
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
About MFA Financial Inc
Exchange NYSE | Headquarters New York, NY, United States | ||
IPO Launch date 1998-04-13 | CEO & Director Mr. Craig L. Knutson | ||
Sector Real Estate | Industry REIT - Mortgage | Full time employees 307 | Website https://www.mfafinancial.com |
Full time employees 307 | Website https://www.mfafinancial.com | ||
MFA Financial, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a real estate investment trust in the United States. It operates through two segments: Mortgage-Related Assets and Lima One. The Mortgage-Related Assets segment primarily invests in and manages a diversified portfolio of residential whole loans, including nonqualified mortgage loans, business purpose loans such as single-family rental loans, single-family and multifamily transitional loans, legacy re-performing and non-performing loans, and agency-eligible investor loans. This segment also invests in residential mortgage-backed securities, including agency MBS, non-agency MBS, and credit risk transfer securities. The Lima One segment includes a stand-alone mortgage origination and servicing business; and originates and services business purpose loans for real estate investors, and related mortgage banking activities. The company offers residential whole loans, including purchased credit deteriorated and non-performing loans; and mortgage servicing rights-related assets. The company's investment activities through a combination of securitization transactions, term loan warehouse financing and repurchase agreement financing. The company qualifies as a real estate investment trust for federal income tax purposes. It generally would not be subject to federal corporate income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. MFA Financial, Inc. was incorporated in 1997 and is based in New York, New York.
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